Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 7, 2015: Wednesday will deliver a warm October day!

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

 

Wednesday – Patchy morning fog.  Becoming mostly sunny.  A warm day for fall break.  Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds:
  East/northeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Wednesday night –  A few clouds.  Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds:
East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Thursday – Partly sunny.  Mild.  Maybe a shower for our far northwest counties (up towards Randolph County, Illinois).
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.  Well above normal temperatures.
Winds:
  Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation? 2
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Thursday night –  Increasingly cloudy.  A chance or a shower or thunderstorm late at night.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds:
South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   40%-60% late
What impact is expected?
  Maybe some lightning.

 

Friday – Quit a few clouds.  A few showers or thunderstorms as a cold front advances into the region.  Most of the precipitation should be before 3 pm.  Some lingering possible after that time over our southeast counties.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s.
Winds:
  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph turning out of the northwest after frontal passage.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No, but monitor updated forecasts as we may have some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?  
60%
What impact is expected?  Maybe some lightning.

 

Friday night –  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds:
North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20% before 5 pm
What impact is expected?
  No impacts.

 

Saturday – Mostly sunny.  Perhaps some puffy cumulus clouds.  Cooler temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 60’s.
Winds:
  North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Saturday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to  upper 40’s.
Winds:
North winds at 5 mph.  Winds becoming variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle 70’s.
Winds:
  West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Sunday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds:
Southerly winds at 5 mph becoming calm or variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Monday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds:
  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Monday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 50’s.
Winds:
Southwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds:
  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Wednesday and Thursday will be quite warm for October
2.  Cold front arrives on Friday
3.  A few rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along the front
4.  Cooler for the weekend
5.  Another warming trend next week?
6.  Frost down the road a bit?

You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below).  That includes the frost forecast.

Wow, how about this stretch of nice weather.  A lot of you are on fall break.  These nice temperatures are spoiling us.  Of course, we know this won’t last.  It is fall, after all.  But, let’s enjoy while it is here.

Expect much of the same on Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures will reach to near 80 degrees and even above for a few hours each afternoon.  Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.  Above normal temperatures, overall.  Normal lows for this time of the year are in the upper 40’s.

This is putting a dent in my forecast thoughts that we would see more below normal temperature days in October than above normal.  Still a long stretch to go.  But, we are racking up the above normal days.  And, we aren’t finished with nice weather.

A cold front advances into the region on Thursday night and Friday.  The biggest question with this front is just how widespread precipitation will or will not be.  At this time, it appears that a broken band of showers and thunderstorms will push through our local counties late Thursday night into Friday morning.  The precipitation should exit our southeast counties on Friday afternoon.  Small chance that a few showers linger into Friday evening.  But, I believe the bulk of any precipitation will have been shunted south and east by sunset.  Should make for a  nice evening for Friday night football.

There are no guarantees that every location will pick up measurable rainfall with this cold front.  Guidance indicates 0.10″-0.25″ with perhaps a few spots picking up 0.30″-0.40″.  The bigger totals would likely occur if a few thunderstorms (non-severe) develop.

Much of the area could use some rain (especially our southern and eastern counties).  This front may not bring much, but perhaps a little.

Let’s take a look at the GFS model guidance.  This shows you the cold front advancing into the region late Thursday night into Friday.  The green represents rainfall and thus the cold front.

This first image is for Thursday evening at 6 pm to 8 pm.  You can see a hint of green to our northwest.  The area of low pressure is passing over the Great Lakes and headed northeast.

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This next image is for the 11 pm to 2 am hours of Thursday night into Friday morning.  More precipitation forming along the cold front.  Maybe even a rumble of thunder.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12

This next image is for Friday morning between 5 am and 7 am

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This next image is for the 11 am to 1 pm time frame on Friday.  You can see the showers shifting south and east as the day wears on.

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And, finally by Friday evening most of the rain is gone from our area.  Maybe a small chance for a remaining shower over our southeast counties.

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The weekend is currently shaping up to be nice.  Cooler temperatures behind the cold front.  Dry conditions are anticipated for both Saturday and Sunday.    Not too bad for October.

I am still watching for a sharp cold snap towards the third week of October into the fourth week.  But, that is a long way off.  Typically late October onward is my busy season for weather.  The jet stream should start pushing further and further southward.  Normally that spells active weather.  However, we aren’t there yet.

Speaking of the that idea.  There are some world indexes that indicate there could be a cold snap down the road a bit.  And, the GFS model is sniffing this out.

Big high pressure on the GFS by the 20th-21st.  Again, LONG LONG way off.  Something I am watching.

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Temperatures to go along with that high pressure would be cold.  If it verifies, that is.

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Back to reality 🙂

Temperatures over the next few days:

Here are the low and high temperature forecasts for Wednesday.  Quite warm for Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures.  Several degrees above normal.  Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees and normal low temperatures are around 48 degrees.  We will average above normal for the coming days.  I am watching for a bigger cold snap around the third week of October.

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Here are the low and high temperature forecasts for Thursday

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Let’s take a look at some winter data.

I will keep these graphics loaded.  I will add more over time and more commentary.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

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Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

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My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

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This next map is for January

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This next map is for February

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This next map is for March

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Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

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Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

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This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

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And, let’s take at look at March.

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So, what does this mean?

Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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No major changes in the forecast.  I did increase temperatures on Sunday by a few degrees.

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No major concerns.

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No

wildcard

The wild card for Thursday night into Friday evening will be precipitation coverage.  A cold front advancing through the region should spark some showers and thunderstorms, but questions remain on just how much of the area will pick up measurable precipitation.
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Currently no frost in the local forecast.  Still a little early for frost.  I am watching October 16th through the 28th for a cold snap.  Maybe frost?

 

For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

nwstownhallmeeting

Radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No measurable precipitation anticipated through at least Thursday.

Here is the rainfall total forecast for the Thursday night into Friday cold frontal passage.  Maybe a few spots will pick up some light totals.  Do not be surprised if many areas miss out on the rainfall with this particular front.

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO through Thursday.

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Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Maybe a thunderstorm along an advancing cold front.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

levelnostorms

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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

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Regional Radar

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

clickherewatches

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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