Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 6 and 7, 2017: Cold front. Nate. Cooler next week.

Morning update

Highlights

1. Cold front pushes into region today with some showers and locally strong thunderstorms Severe risk is low.
2. Remnants of Nate could mean heavier rain for portions of the region
3. Gusty winds today in the 20 to 40 mph range.Quick summary

Today and tonight

Most of this morning will remain rain-free. Rain chances increase as we push into late morning and especially later this afternoon/tonight.

A cold front will push into the region from the west. This front will spark showers and thunderstorms.

A few of the storms could produce high winds.  Lightning is always a concern for those outdoors.  There is a small chance for a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds.  Tornado risk is low.

We will also have gusty southerly winds today in the 20 to 30+ mph range. Boaters use care.

Hurricane Nate will move ashore later today and tonight. Nate may add a bit more moisture to our rainfall, as well.

The best chance of this happening would be over Kentucky.

If bands of rain occur, then a few locations could receive two or more inches of rain.

As a general rule, however, rainfall totals today through Sunday night will range from 0.25″ to 0.50″. Thunderstorms can always produce heavier totals, keep that in mind.

Some areas may receive no measurable rainfall (again).

Isolated showers/storms are possible on Monday into Monday night.

A cold front arrives on Tuesday.  This front may be accompanied by a few showers.

Somewhat cooler air is likely on Wednesday and Thursday.  Models differ on how much cooler.  I have 70’s for both Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures.  I will monitor the trends in the guidance and make adjustments if necessary.  The GFS model guidance has us in the 80’s.

Here is the WPC rainfall forecast graphic.  Very sharp cutoff on rain totals.  Take the general idea from this graphic and not specifics.

In other words, the heaviest rain will be south and east vs north and west.  What those totals end up being is questionable.

Here is what the NAM model is spitting out for rainfall totals.  Notice the coverage.  Some banding.

Here is the HRRR model future-cast radar.  You can see the time stamp at the top.  Best chances for showers/storms will be this afternoon.

Here is the high res 3K NAM model (one model of many).

This is future-cast radar.  This is what radar might look like this afternoon into tomorrow.  The timestamp at the top of the image.

Click images to enlarge.

Radars
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
Bonus short and long range videos are available for Weather Talk subscribers.  This is in addition to the other products that you receive on a daily basis.
.
Videos are normally posted on Monday through Friday.  Typically, videos will be updated during the morning and afternoon hours.  I personally update videos during active weather.
.
A Weather Talk subscription ($3 a month) is required to view the videos.

Videos are posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Once there, click the Beau Video-Cast tab.    Long Range Video Update

If you believe you missed a video then you may check the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website.  You will find an archive of videos on that page.

You can also receive the videos via your Weather Talk app/text messages.  Have text option FOUR activated.  The Weather Extra text option.  Sign up for the app/text messages, videos, and more at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.

This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

.

.

 

October 6, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  Well above normal temperatures.  For now, I will keep Friday night dry in my forecast counties.
Temperatures  MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68     KY ~ 64 to 68 (locally warmer is a possibility)
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph late.  Gusty winds possible, especially late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Late at night there could be a few showers/storms approaching from the northwest.  I believe the chances are fairly low in my forecast county zone.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%    
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.  I will be monitoring my Missouri and Illinois forecast counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars

.

October 7, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Windy.  Boaters use care.  A mix of sun and clouds during the morning.  Increasing clouds through the day.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible during the morning, but most areas should remain dry.  A band of showers and storms will likely approach from the west/northwest as we move through the late morning and especially the afternoon hours.  Rain may increase over Kentucky during the afternoon from the south, as well (the later into the afternoon the greater the chances).   Very warm for October.  Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~84 to 88     KY ~ 76 to 84  Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Windy day.  Boaters use care.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.  Locally heavy rain possible (for a few locations).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for high winds with the most intense storms
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered.  Increasing coverage is possible as we move into Saturday afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
.

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Greater chances over extreme southern Illinois and Kentucky.  Some feeder bands are possible.  These would be bands of rain that produce locally heavy rain.  Best chance for those will be over Kentucky.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 62     IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Gusty winds before 8 pm.  Winds becoming variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.  Some locally heavy rain possible over western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Small risk this evening that some storms could produce high winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 70%    
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to numerous.  Bands of rain possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.  Check updates.  Rain is possible.  Have a plan B.

.

October 8, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  More clouds over extreme southern Illinois and Kentucky.  Warm for October.  A chance of showers and perhaps a feq thunderstorms, especially over Kentucky.  Rain chances increase more as you move south and east in the region.  Some of the rain could be heavy over western Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 78 to 84    IL ~78 to 84      KY ~ 76 to 82
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy downpours possible for western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and updates.  Have a plan B.

.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of rain.  Best rain chances will likely be over Kentucky.  The track of the tropical system will be key to our cloud cover and rain chances.  If the path is further north and west then southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will also have higher rain chances.  Low to medium confidence on the placement of rain chances Sunday night.
Temperatures   MO ~ 62 to 64     IL ~ 62 to 64    KY ~ 63 to 66
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 60%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Coverage is highly dependent on the track of the tropical system.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Have a plan B for Kentucky.

.

October 9, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny and very warm for October.  Well above normal temperatures will continue.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86    IL ~82 to 86      KY ~ 82 to 86
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  I will monitor trends as far as a few showers remaining.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates.

.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.  A cold front approaches from the northwest.  The front may be a slow mover.  That could mean rain chances hold off until Tuesday/Tuesday night.  This remains a question.  Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures   MO ~ 60 to 64     IL ~ 60 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds:  Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts possible.  Winds becoming west and northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low to Medium.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps increasing coverage from the northwest, low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates and radars

.

October 10, 2017
Tueday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are a possibility.  Some question on rain coverage for Tuesday.  The speed of the front will determine this.  A little cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82    IL ~76 to 82      KY ~ 76 to 82
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates.

.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Showers on Tuesday night will depend on whether that cold front pushes east.  Some question on this topic.  I am monitoring trends.
Temperatures   MO ~ 52 to 56     IL ~ 52 to 56      KY ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some fog.  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

.

October 11, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cooler.  A slight chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 76    IL ~72 to 76      KY ~ 72 to 76
Winds: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cooler.
Temperatures   MO ~ 52 to 56     IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  Northeast winds at 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Friday night through Tuesday:  Organized severe weather appears unlikely.  A few storms on Saturday could produce high winds.

Lightning is possible on Saturday through Tuesday.  Locally heavy rain is possible for western Kentucky Saturday into Sunday.

.

beausanalysis

Overview

Highlights of the forecast.

  1.  Nate is a headache
  2.  Rain chances increasing, but once again some may miss out
  3.  Cooler next week

Short range comments

Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast.  Click here for that information.

(See the long range discussion further down in this post)

Key points in this update will be the incoming cold front and the tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain chances will increase as we move deeper into Saturday.  The band of showers and thunderstorms will push eastward from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and Kentucky.

The best chance for rain will likely hold off until the afternoon hours.

A second band of rain may form in response to moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical storm/hurricane Nate will be the cause.

The best chance for rain bands impacting our region will be over western Kentucky.  Whether these bonus rain bands push into southeast Missouri and extreme southern Illinois is questionable.

There will be locally heavy rain if the tropical bands form.  Rainfall rates of one inch an hour will be possible.  Locally higher.  This will be high octane moisture straight out of the Gulf of Mexico.

PWAT values will be quite high with this event.

There remain some questions on the exact path and strength of Nate.  This will be important for our forecast.  Any adjustments in the track and strength will likely impact our forecast.  Keep this in mind.

Medium confidence on the rain bands for Kentucky.

Here are the PWAT values for Saturday into Monday

What are PWAT values?

Saturday PWAT values

Click images to enlarge.

The purple colors are 1.5″ or higher.  The pink colors are above 2″.  Those are high numbers for PWAT’s.

Saturday night PWAT values

Sunday PWAT values

Notice the increasing PWAT’s.  That is because of Nate (tropics)

Monday PWAT values

The higher values pull away on Monday

Again, the higher the PWAT values the better chance for tropical downpours (heavy rain).

Let’s look at three animations.

These are NAM model guidance products.  One model of many.

The NAM has Nate a bit further north and west than some models.  The track of Nate is key to the forecast.

Future-cast radar.  What the NAM model believes the radar will look like over the coming days.

Time stamps at the top of the image

Click to enlarge

Notice the bands forming on Saturday and Sunday and moving north and northwest.  That is from Nate.

Rainfall totals from the NAM. Time stamps at the top of the image.

Notice the banding.  Again, that is because of Nate.

Here is a higher resolution model.  Notice the heavy bands forming over portions of our region in response to the tropical moisture moving northward.

Click to enlarge

Here is the Friday afternoon high resolution NAM future-cast radar for good measure.  This updated during the late afternoon hours.

Temperature Forecast

Friday night low temperatures

Saturday high temperatures

Saturday low temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

Sunday night low temperatures

Monday high temperatures

Monday night low temperatures

 

Dew point scale

Dew points are what control how you feel outside.

 

Saturday dew points

Sunday dew points

These higher dew points are dependent on the track of the tropical system

Monday dew points

These higher dew points are dependent on the track of the tropical system

Tuesday dew points

 

Long range forecast discussion

The long range will be dominated by what happens with the tropical system on Sunday/Monday.

Another cold front should approach the region on Tuesday.  Some differences in opinion on the timing of the front.

This front will also deliver a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  I will be monitoring Monday night into Tuesday night for rain chances.  I am leaning towards centering the rain chances on Tuesday, but confidence is not all that great.

Cooler weather will filter into the region by Tuesday night into Friday.  We may have several days with highs in the 70’s.  Low temperatures by the middle and end of the week should drop into the upper 40’s to middle 50’s.

Frost does not appear to be a concern.

 

Are you subscribing to Weather Talk app/text messages and videos?  This is what helps support all of the data you see each day.

We now offer premium videos for the short and long range forecasts!  These videos are produced by a team of long range forecast experts.  They are brought to you as bonus information.  Activate text option four in order to receive these on your app or via text.

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

We offer an Apple and Android app (scroll to the bottom of this page for more information).

Were you aware that I hired a team of meteorologists for long range videos?

To learn more, click this link

http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/

.

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.

Live lightning data ~ click here

.

12345r
.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The app provides a faster way for you to receive my text messages.  ATT and Verizon are not always reliable when it comes to speed.

Some of you have asked if you can receive the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to open your app and click the settings button.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

——————————————————–

Your support helps with the following:

and

.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

awaremail

Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.

I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

Comments are closed.