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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday night – Partly cloudy sky conditions. Cool temperatures. Pleasant night to open the windows.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice weather for those on fall break!
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 0-5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – A few clouds. Decent temperatures for October.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to around 60 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Warm. A warm day for fall break. Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – A few clouds. Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Mild. Maybe a shower for our far northwest counties (up towards Randolph County, Illinois).
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Increasingly cloudy. A chance or a shower or thunderstorm late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Maybe some lightning.
Friday – Quit a few clouds. A chance for a few showers or thunderstorms as a cold front advances into the region.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph turning out of the northwest after frontal passage.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts as we may have some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Maybe some lightning.
Friday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers remaining.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Maybe some lightning early in the evening if a thunderstorm develops along the front.
Saturday – Some clouds. Cooler temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Fairly easy pattern to forecast
2. Warm for October
3. A cold front arrives on Friday
4. A few showers with the front. Maybe a clap of thunder.
5. Cooler for the weekend
You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below). That includes the frost forecast.
I wanted to let you know that I have been talking about the winter forecast for a couple of months now. If you want to read my winter forecast thoughts you just have to check back here on the blog. It is usually towards the middle/end of my forecast discussion. You are reading the forecast discussion, now. So, just scroll down each day and see if I have added new thoughts or changes.
We are currently in a fairly calm weather pattern for October. It has been this way since late August. We did have two significant rain events in September. The first one brought quite a bit of rain to southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (missed Kentucky and Tennessee). The second one, at months end, brought quite a bit of rain to the region. But, since then ZZzzzzzz A snoozer on the weather front.
Typically in October we start to think about a stormier pattern. Normally this kicks in towards the middle and end of the month.
Through Thursday we are going to have above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. As a matter of fact, no rain is in the forecast through Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will bump up to 80 degrees and above over the next few days.
Tuesday morning low temperature forecast
Tuesday afternoon high temperature forecast
Wednesday morning low temperature forecast
Wednesday afternoon high temperature forecast
Looking ahead…
A cold front will arrive on Thursday night and Friday. This front will be accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms. At this time, it appears that most areas will remain dry. Some locations might pick up 0.10″-0.30″. The front may sweep through the region mostly dry. Let’s keep an eye on it. Hopefully we can squeeze out some rainfall.
Here is the rainfall forecast map for the Friday cold front. Many areas may miss out on measurable rainfall totals. The WPC forecast graphic (broad-brushed) shows some light totals in our region. Image is from weatherbell.com
The Canadian model guidance actually hangs the front up a bit longer. It continues showers into Friday night and even early Saturday morning. I will need to monitor this part of the forecast.
Once that front pushes south and east of the region on Friday night, high pressure will dominate our weather through early next week. High pressure in the fall typically means cool and dry weather. Temperatures may dip back down into the 40’s by the weekend (for overnight lows).
I am watching for a possible cold snap towards the 16th through the 28th.. This could provide our first frost. Long way out. Several world indexes point towards a cold snap towards the third and fourth weeks of the month. Perhaps a substantial cold snap.
Let’s take a look at Monday mornings temperature and satellite map. I wanted to show you the view of the hurricane off the East Coast of the United States. Wound up in the Atlantic. You can see it there on the far right side of the image. Impressive hurricane. Moving away from the United States.
Another beautiful satellite view
Let’s take a look at some weather maps
This is the GFS model guidance. The GFS is one of many models that give guidance to forecasters. The GFS is not my favorite model. It is likely overdone on the amount of precipitation that will push through our region this Thursday night (late) and Friday. But, you get the general idea that a front will move through. And, a few showers and storms will be possible along the front. Many may miss out on the rain, once again.
This is the Thursday evening map. The green represents some rain. That precipitation marks the location of the frontal boundary. The cold front.
By Friday morning around 1 am. You can see the front pushing south and east. Again, the GFS is likely overdoing the amount of precipitation coverage.
This is the 5 am to 7 am Friday morning map. Maybe a few showers over our region. We can hope. The better dynamics and moisture, with this particular system, will likely pass through the Great Lakes. Even some snow north of Maine. A sign that the seasons are changing.
By Friday night high pressure is pushing into our region. The big H represents the high pressure. High pressure will keep our weather calm and cool for the weekend. Maybe some fair weather cumulus clouds.
Let’s take a look at some winter data.
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Moved temperatures downward for Friday night. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes in this update.
No major concerns.
No
No wild card through Wednesday.
Currently no frost in the local forecast. Still a little early for frost. I am watching October 16th through the 28th for a cold snap. Maybe frost?
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No measurable precipitation anticipated through at least Wednesday night.
Here is the rainfall total forecast for the Thursday night into Friday cold frontal passage. Maybe a few spots will pick up some light totals. Do not be surprised if many areas miss out on the rainfall with this particular front.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO through Thursday.
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Maybe a thunderstorm along an advancing cold front.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
