Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

Sunday night –  Some clouds possible.  Clearing more likely after midnight.  A small chance for a remaining shower over eastern counties.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 50’s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Monday – Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Decent temperatures for October.
Temperatures:  Highs temperatures in the upper 70’s 
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Monday night –  Partly cloudy sky conditions.  Cool temperatures.  Pleasant night to open the windows.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Tuesday – Mostly sunny.  Mild.  Nice weather for those on fall break!
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to perhaps lower 80’s.
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Tuesday night –  A few clouds.  Decent temperatures for October.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50’s to around 60 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Wednesday – Mostly sunny.  Mild.  A warm day for fall break.  Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Winds:  East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Wednesday night –  Mostly clear.  Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Thursday – Partly sunny.  Mild.  Maybe a shower for our far northwest counties (up towards Randolph County, Illinois).
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Winds:  East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Thursday night –  Increasingly cloudy.  A chance or a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   30%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Friday – Quit a few clouds.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front advances into the region.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph turning out of the northwest after frontal passage.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts as we may have some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Fairly tranquil weather pattern
2.  Warming temperatures
3.  No severe weather in our forecast
4.  Cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday night with perhaps some showers and thunderstorms
5.  Looking ahead to winter

You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below).  That includes the frost forecast.

A fairly quiet weather forecast as we push into the new work week.  Expect a warming trend, as well.  Mostly dry through Thursday.

We should push towards 80 degrees as we move into Monday – Thursday.  Best bet for 80 and above will be on Tuesday-Thursday.

We should expect to finally see some sunshine on Monday-Thursday, as well.  We will have periods of clouds…but more sun than not.

A cold front will advance into our region by Thursday night-Friday afternoon.  It does appear the front might spark some showers and thunderstorms by late Thursday night into Friday.  Some disagreement on the exact timing of the frontal passage.  I am leaning towards Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

Perhaps the highest chances for precipitation, in our local counties, will be on Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

How much precipitation falls is still questionable.  Some of the guidance indicates 0.25″-0.50″ and other data indicates less than that.  We have not done well, for the most part, with precipitation over the past month.  We did have a decent event right at the end of September.

At this time, I am not expecting severe thunderstorms with this particular cold front.  We typically experience severe weather in October and November.  But, this front won’t be a concern in that department.

Let’s take a look at some maps.

This is the GFS guidance map for late Thursday night and early Friday morning.  You can see an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes.  The red L is the area of low pressure.

The green represents showers and thunderstorms.  You can see by 12 am to 2 am on Friday morning that showers and storms are lined up from the Great Lakes into the Missouri Valley.

This next image is for Friday morning around 7 am.  You can see some showers and thunderstorms in our region.

Moving ahead to Saturday.  You can see the rain has cleared out of our region.  Saturday should be dry.  Temperatures behind the front should be in the 60’s.

This is the Sunday weather map.  No green in our region.  High pressure should dominate our weather by Saturday and Sunday.  I have been watching a southern storm system for the weekend.  But, the latest guidance takes it far enough south and east that perhaps it won’t be a concern for our area.

Looking way out into the future.  This is the map for next Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Maybe another system that could produce rain showers.  Long way off for that one.

Let’s take a look at Hurricane Joaquin.  This hurricane will miss the United States.  But, not before producing a lot of damage to the Bahamas and producing swells along the East Coat of the United States.  The hurricane, combined with an upper level low over the southeast United States, has produced billions of dollars in damage because of flood flooding, flooding, and damage to the shoreline.

Let me show you a satellite photograph.

See the hurricane on the far right.  But, look at the thin band of clouds that pushes into South Carolina.  That is a stream of moisture.  This is the reason so much rain has fallen over South Carolina.  There is a connection of sorts to the hurricane.  Incredible training of showers and thunderstorms over the same areas for several days now.  Some locations have likely picked up more than 30 inches of rain.

Let me show you the same image, but with notations.

Here is another satellite view.  This is water vapor.  The red/orange colors represent dry air being pulled into the systems.

Bad situation for the southeast United States.  Sure hate to see the flood damage and hear about the fatalities.

You can see on the upper level wind maps the upper level low over the southeast U.S. and the hurricane out to sea

Let’s take a look at some winter forecasts.

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

This next map is for January

This next map is for February

This next map is for March

Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

And, let’s take at look at March.

So, what does this mean?

Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

No major changes in this forecast.

No major concerns.

No

The only wild card in the forecast will be high temperatures.  I am thinking that 80 degrees is a good bet this week, but can we approach 84-85 degrees in some spots by Tuesday or Wednesday?  Thursday, as well?  We shall see.

Currently no frost in the local forecast.  Still a little early for frost.  I am watching October 16th through the 28th for a cold snap.  Maybe frost?

For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

Radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No measurable precipitation anticipated through at least Wednesday night.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO through Thursday.

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Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Maybe a thunderstorm along an advancing cold front.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

Regional Radar

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.