October 5, 2017
A complicated forecast unfolding over the coming days. The complications are mainly centered around the tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Today and Friday will be warm and mild. Some clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80’s. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower. The vast majority of the region will remain dry.
A cold front will push through the region on Saturday. This front will trigger scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. For the time being, it appears that the rain band would be broken. That would mean some areas receiving little or no rainfall. It is possible that most areas will remain dry.
Guidance has gone back and forth on this subject. Some guidance shows no rain at all. Other guidance shows a decent band of precipitation.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms would be late Friday night into Saturday. Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning would be a possibility.
Tropics
A tropical system is going to move into the Gulf of Mexico over the coming days. This system will move ashore on Sunday/Monday. This system will spread clouds into our region.
In addition to the clouds there could be some rain. How much rain is the real question.
The latest guidance shifted westward with the track forecast. At one time the models were showing a hit for the Florida Panhandle. Overnight the models shifted further west. They now bring it ashore in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Needless to say, confidence on the eventual path is low.
Here is the latest track forecast from the NHC
This is the wind forecast.
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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 4, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild. Well above normal temperatures. More clouds MO/IL vs KY/TN
Temperatures: MO ~60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 60 KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South and southwest at 0 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 5, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Very warm for October. Well above normal temperatures. More clouds MO/IL vs KY/TN
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild for October. Well above normal temperatures. More clouds MO/IL vs KY/TN
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 6, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Very warm for October. Well above normal temperatures. More clouds MO/IL vs KY/TN
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Well above normal temperatures. For now, I will keep Friday night dry in my forecast counties. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Late at night there could be a few showers/storms approaching from the northwest.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will be monitoring my Missouri and Illinois forecast counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars
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October 7, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Very warm for October. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 Temperatures could be higher if we have more sun
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming variable at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be over Kentucky/Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars. Check updates.
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October 8, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny and warm. A chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lower than normal confidence on the Sunday forecast. The track of the tropical system will be key to our cloud cover and rain chances. Perhaps the best chance for showers will be over our far southeast counties. That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and updates.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance for rain. Best rain chances will likely be over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lower than normal confidence on the Sunday forecast. The track of the tropical system will be key to our cloud cover and rain chances. Perhaps the best chance for showers will be over our far southeast counties. That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Coverage is highly dependent on the track of the tropical system.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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October 9, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny and warm. I will be monitoring the tropical system to our south and east. Well above normal temperatures will continue.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered over our eastern counties. Isolated elsewhere. This is highly dependent on the track of the tropical system.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches from the northwest. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps increasing coverage from the northwest
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I will be monitoring the weekend and early next week for a few thunderstorms. For now, severe storms are not anticipated. Lightning would be the main concern.
Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- Well above normal temperatures to continue
- Drought worsening
- Two cold fronts to monitor
- A tropical system ion the Gulf of Mexico
Short range comments
Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast. Click here for that information.
(See the long range discussion further down in this post)
Not to be a broken record, but the non-fall like weather will continue. Temperatures will remain above to much above normal through Monday. Plenty of days with 80’s.
Here is the sixty hour NAM model guidance future-cast radar. This takes us from now through 7 pm on Friday.
A weak cold front will move through the region on Saturday. It appears the front will pass through our region mostly dry. Not good news for the drought conditions.
There will be at least a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms over the western and northern parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois as the front moves through the region. For the most part, don’t expect much in the way of rain.
Here is the GFS precipitation map for Saturday at 7 am. Notice the showers and storms well to our west and northwest.
Here is the 1 pm Saturday map (below)
The GFS wants to interact with a tongue of moisture moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That is why there is some green in the region (KY/TN).
This is highly questionable and will need to be monitored.
I am monitoring a tropical system. See the long range discussion further down.
See long range discussion below
Temperature Forecast
Wednesday night low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Thursday night low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Friday night low temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Saturday low temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Thursday dew points
Friday dew points
Saturday dew points
NOTICE the big jump in numbers? This is because the GFS wants to bring tropical moisture into our region from the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a sure bet.
Those bigger numbers are highly dependent on the track of future Tropical storm/Hurricane Nate.
I have the system tracking further south and southeast.
Sunday dew points
NOTICE the big jump in numbers? This is because the GFS wants to bring tropical moisture into our region from the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a sure bet.
Long range forecast discussion
The long range outlook will include Sunday through Wednesday of next week.
A complex forecast is developing for late this weekend into early next week. The problem is centered around a tropical system that will impact the Gulf of Mexico.
What will soon be named Nate, will push into the Gulf of Mexico over the coming days. It is possible that this system becomes a hurricane. The eventual track of the system will be key to our forecast.
The main impact along the Gulf of Mexico will be Sunday and Monday. It will then pull away to the north and east. If you have vacation plans, to the Gulf of Mexico, on Sunday and Monday, then monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center. Link to the NHC
A cold front is forecast to push into our region on Monday night and Tuesday. This front might interact with the tropical system. First, it could pull moisture northward into our region. Second, the entire system may move northward, as well.
For now, I continue to lean towards the system being a bit further south and east of our region. Confidence, however, is low. I would suggest monitoring updated forecasts over the coming days.
Here is the official National Hurricane Center outlook for what will be Nate. Subject to major adjustments.
The cold front should push through our region by Tuesday. This would mean cooler conditions for the middle of next week.
Showers and storms are possible along and ahead of the front on Monday night and Tuesday. I did bump up rain chances a bit, during that time frame.
I don’t think it will be cold enough for frost, yet. I will be monitoring.
Here is what the GFS model is showing for low temperatures next Thursday and Friday
Thursday
Friday
The EC guidance also shows cooler weather from Wednesday into Friday.
Wednesday temperature anomalies. How many degrees above or below normal. Average high, for this time of the year, is around 75/76.
Thursday
Friday
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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