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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Mostly cloudy. Cool. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Some clouds. Small chance for a scattered shower. A bit warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. High temps on Sunday will depend on cloud cover.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be a shower in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Some clouds possible. Clearing more likely after midnight. A small chance for a remaining shower over eastern counties. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50’s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday – Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures in the upper 70’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Partly cloudy sky conditions. Cool temperatures. Pleasant night to open the windows.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to perhaps lower 80’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear. Decent temperatures for October.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to around 60 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear. Above normal temperatures for October.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Maybe some showers by Friday. Low confidence. Cold front approaching from the west. See details further down in the blog.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. One more cool day and then a warming trend
2. Above normal temperatures expected for much of the new work week
3. Another cold front around Friday
4. When will it rain again?
You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below). That includes the frost forecast.
Saturday sure did feel like fall. Jacket weather, without a doubt. Temperatures at noon on Saturday were still mostly in the 50’s over our region. A gusty north/northeast wind made it feel cooler. And, some scattered light showers didn’t help the situation.
We will be dealing with clouds on Sunday, as well. Maybe a spotty shower here and there. But, the good news is that we will have a slow warming trend over the coming days. The clouds will exit on Sunday night and Monday. The exit might be a little slow, but they will be departing.
If you had hoped we were finished with the 80’s then I have bad news. We are not finished with the 80’s. Expect 80 degrees and above by Wednesday and Thursday. And, I can’t rule out a few 80 degree readings on Tuesday. Warm weather for October. Above normal temperatures.
I am monitoring a possible storm system sliding out of the southwest United States around Thursday and Friday. And then another system diving down from the northwest during the same time period. This would be our next best (I use the word best loosely) chance for some precipitation in the region. Unfortunately, it does not look like a big rain maker. At least right now it doesn’t. That could change and I will monitor the setup.
It appears a cold front will drift into our region by Friday. This front will deliver some cooler air. Whether we see some showers or thunderstorms is still a question mark.
Let me show you some maps to go along with the discussion.
This first map is for Tuesday of this week. You can see the big H over Iowa. That is high pressure. High pressure will slide into our region early this week. This as our southeast upper level low departs.
By Thursday you can see an area of low pressure moving into Wisconsin. A cold front will trail back into Kansas and Oklahoma.
By Friday morning the front is advancing into our region. The green represents rain. The low is near Toronto on Friday morning. The cold front trails back into Missouri and Oklahoma. Another storm system will be located in Texas.
Grrrr is all I can say on this next map. This is for Friday evening. The rain appears to break apart in our area. Let’s hope not. But, at least one model shows that happening. Long way off for model guidance.
On Saturday night the GFS model guidance indicates some showers in our region. This is more from the southern system that I mentioned earlier. Long shot, to say the least.
Let’s take a look at temperature anomalies for the upcoming week.
This first image is for Saturday and Sunday. LOT of blue on that map! That shows you where all the clouds and cool temperatures are located. The blue represents below normal temperatures. Well below normal in some cases.
But, look at what happens by Wednesday. The blue is gone and it is replaced with red and orange. Above normal temperatures for our region.
This is the map for Friday. We are still in the red zone. That means above normal temperature anomalies.
Let’s take a look at the jet stream.
This is the 300 mb map. Way up in the atmosphere. The brighter the colors the higher the winds. Yellow being the higher wind speeds. Blue being lower wind speeds.
Notice on Thursday the storm system over the southwest United States. Notice how the jet stream buckles southwest and then pushes milder air into our region. The white arrows represents the wind direction and movement.
Southwest flow for our region. That typically means milder air.
This next map is for Friday. Notice how the southern storm is moving through Texas and eventually along the Gulf of Mexico.
Our winds begin to become more northwesterly on Friday. That will lead to cooler temperatures.
By Sunday the jet stream dips considerably as an upper level low drops down into our region from the north. This could mean a few more showers over the weekend. But, that is only if this guidance is correct.
By Sunday afternoon you can see an upper level low over our region. A large drip in the jet stream. Perhaps some clouds and cooler weather by the weekend. The main jet remains well to the north.
Typically we do have some severe weather during the fall months. I am not seeing anything in the charts that lead me to believe we will experience severe weather over the coming week. That is good news.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I tweaked temperatures a bit. Not much. Otherwise, just some minor cloud cover changes.
No major concerns.
No
No real wild card in the forecast. I suppose I could throw a wild card out for high temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday. Can we make it to 85 degrees? Lower 80’s seem a good bet.
Currently no frost in the local forecast. Still a little early for frost. I am watching October 16th through the 28th for a cold snap. Maybe frost?
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few showers will be possible on Sunday. Actual rainfall totals should be on the light side.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO through Thursday.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
