Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 31, 2016: Trick or Treat? Depends on how much you love autumn.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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October 30, 2016
Sunday
Night: Periods of clouds.  Mild for October.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.  Winds becoming calm after 11 pm.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 5:58 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:20 p.m.  New Moon.
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October 31, 2016
Halloween
Monday:
 Some morning clouds.  Becoming partly sunny through the day.  Breezy, at times.  Mild for October.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9
 
Moonrise
will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:54 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Monday
Night: Mostly clear.  Mild.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None anticipated, at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 1, 2016
Tuesday:
 Mostly sunny.  Mild for October.  Well above normal temperatures.  Record highs?
What impact is expected? Most likely none

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable winds at 6-12 mph.  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:56 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9

Moonrise
will be at 8:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:32 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Tuesday Night: 
Partly cloudy.  Mild for October.
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Variable winds  at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 2, 2016
Wednesday: Increasing clouds.  Some of the guidance indicates showers might develop Wednesday afternoon and night.  I will monitor trends.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East winds becoming south/southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:55 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9

Moonrise
will be at 9:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:12 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: 
Increasing clouds.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts
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November 3, 2016
Thursday: Partly sunny.  A chance for showers.  A rumble of thunder possible. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.  
Sunrise
will be at 7:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:54 p.m.
UV Index: 2-4 (cloud cover might keep the UV index lower)

Moonrise
will be at 10:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:57 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Thursday Night:
 Cloudy.  A chance for showers.  Cooler. 
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North and northwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts

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November 4, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny.  Above normal temperatures, but cooler than earlier in the week.
What impact is expected?  

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northwest winds becoming northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:53 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9

Moonrise
will be at 11:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Friday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Northeast and east winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  
Is severe weather expected? 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. More warm weather
  2. Cooler air by Thursday and Friday?
  3. Long range.

I have completely run out of ways to describe how warm it is.  Warm.  Our large temperature anomalies continue.  Warm weather should last through at least Wednesday.  Above normal temperatures may last through Sunday.

A weak cold front will move through the region on Sunday night.  I do not anticipate rain.  A few clouds.

Another front arrives on Thursday.  This front should spark at least a chance for showers on both Thursday and Thursday night.  I will monitor the timing.  Cooler temperatures are possible on both Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures may remain above normal.

Here is what the GFS is showing for rain.  These maps are for Thursday.  A few light showers.  Not much.  Many areas will remain dry.  Rainfall totals less than 0.10″.

This first image is for Thursday at 7 am.  You can see a band of light showers (green colors).

Click to enlarge

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This next image is Thursday at 1 pm.

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Click image to enlarge.  This is for Thursday night at 7 pm.

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I continue to monitor the middle of November for a pattern flip.  Perhaps cooler/colder air will finally arrive around mid-month.  Time will tell.  What an odd year this has been.  What will winter bring?

Here is what the GFS model guidance is showing for the next sixteen days.  High and low temperatures.  Data is at the bottom of the graphic.

Keep in mind, once you move past day five the confidence level for verification drops.

Click image to enlarge.  This first graphic is for Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

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This next graphic is for Paducah, Kentucky

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This next graphic is for Carbondale, Illinois

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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast

No rain in our forecast through at least Wednesday.

Here is the rainfall forecast through this coming weekend.  WPC is painting little to no rain.  We will have a chance for some showers on Thursday.  Not much.

Click image to enlarge.

wpc_total_precip_ky_28

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Monday morning low temperatures
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Sunday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures

Locally warmer
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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 tuehighs
Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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.No major changes in this update.
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Patchy dense fog could lower visibility over the coming nights.  Fog will mix out during the early to mid morning hours.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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