Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 30 and 31, 2017: A warming trend.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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October 30, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy and chilly.  A frost/freeze is again possible.  Low confidence on tonight’s low temperatures.  Temperatures will depend on clouds departing.   If clouds linger then overnight lows will likely be in the 34 to 38 degree range.  If they clear out then the colder temperatures will varify.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35     KY ~ 32 to 36  Favored cold spots in the region could dip into the upper 20’s.  Not unusual to have a range of temperatures.
Winds
:  W NW wind 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Frost or freeze possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No.

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October 31, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Morning sun.  Perhaps some increase in clouds during the afternoon hours.  A chance of a light shower after 5 pm for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Rain may show up on radar and not hit the ground.  There will be a layer of dry air to work through.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54    IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 48 to 54
Winds: N/NW wind at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts early in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20% (late)    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated late afternoon showers for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Increasing chances of rain.  Chilly.  A few sleet pellets possible at the onset of the precipitation.  No impact or concern.  Cool.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 44    IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 34 to 40
Winds
:  Wind becoming southerly 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%   IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Increasing from the west/southwest.  Scattered at first and then numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but monitor updates.  Evening showers are a possibility.

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November 1, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Showers likely, especially during the morning hours.  Decreasing rain chances through the day.  The greatest coverage of rain will likely be over the southern half of the region.  That would include the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky/Tennessee.  As you travel further north and west the coverage may decrease.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 52 to 56      KY ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Temperatures rising through the night.  Low temperatures will be early in the evening.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 44 to 48 and then rising well into the 50’s    IL ~ 44 to 48 and then rising well into the 50’s     KY ~ 44 to 48 and then rising well into the 50’s
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? Monitor updates

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November 2, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Warm for November.  A shower or thunderstorm possible.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74    IL ~ 68 to 74      KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Rumble of thunder possible. Mild for November.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 56 to 62    IL ~ 56 to 62     KY ~ 56 to 62
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but check radars and updates.

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November 3, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Warm for November.   Showers likely.  Thunder possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 74      KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers again possible. Thunder possible.  Mild for November.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  I will monitor the lightning risk
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? Monitor updates.

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November 4, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers.  Lower confidence in Saturday’s rain chances.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 74      KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A shower possible.  Mild for November.  Lower confidence in the weekend part of the forecast.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates.

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November 5, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance for showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 74      KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A chance for showers.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates.

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November 6, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Morning showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72    IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~     IL ~     KY ~
Winds
: Northerly  winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:

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Beau’s Forecast Certainties

Beau’s Forecast Uncertainties

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Monday night through Wednesday:  No severe weather concerns.

Thursday through Sunday:  Lightning is possible on Thursday and perhaps into the weekend.  For now, severe weather is not in the forecast.  I will monitor trends.
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Monday night through Friday:  Widespread wintry precipitation is not anticipated.  A few sleet pellets are possible on Tuesday night as rain develops in the area.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

The main weather story this week will be increasing rain chances and much warmer temperatures.

If you are missing the spring-like air then you are in luck.  The 70’s are going to return!

A changeable forecast over the coming seven days with multiple cold fronts, stationary fronts, and warm fronts. Several upper air disturbances to top things off.

Monday night/Tuesday morning

A cold front will move through the region by the evening hours.

Colder air will filter in behind the cold front. Lows tonight will range from 30 to 35. Frost is a possibility and a freeze is possible.

I can’t rule out some of the favored cold spots dipping below 30 degrees tonight. I will monitor guidance trends in the new data today.

Seasonal low-temperature norms are in the lower 40’s.  We will be colder than normal tonight.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

We will have some sun on Tuesday morning, but as we move through the day you will note an increase in clouds from the south and west.

I can’t rule out a shower Tuesday afternoon over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

This cloud cover will be in response to our next system.

Moisture will begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and night. Warm air moving over cold air.

Some of the guidance develops a few showers as early as Tuesday afternoon over southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.  I did mention a slight chance of rain for Tuesday afternoon.

Rain chances are likely to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A few sleet pellets could be mixed in at the onset of precipitation, but no impact or concerns.

The greatest rain coverage should be Tuesday night and early on Wednesday.

Wednesday

Cloud cover and rain showers will hold temperatures down a bit.  Highs will be in the 50’s.

We will have at least morning rain showers on Wednesday and then perhaps decreasing rain coverage during the late morning and afternoon.

Guidance is all over the place with when to end the rain chances.

This appears to be a fairly light rain event.  Perhaps in the 0.05″ to 0.30″ range.

The NAM guidance indicates greater rain totals south vs north.

High-resolution numbers

Lower resolution solution

Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning risk on Wednesday appears nil to small.

Temperatures will rise through Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Wednesday night low temperatures should be early in the evening.  Temperatures will likely rise into the 50’s by sunrise.  Some areas could see temperatures rise to near 60 degrees.  This will be in response to the low-level jet increasing.

Here is the low-level jet map.  Those colors represent strong southerly winds above the surface.

Click image to enlarge.  You can see the state outlines.  The dark orange colors represent 45 to 50-knot winds just off the surface.

The end result will be rising temperatures on Wednesday night.

Wednesday 7 pm temperatures

Wednesday 7 am temperatures

Rest of the week

Quite a few clouds possible Thursday into Friday night.

Highs on Thursday will range from 66 to 72.  Warmer.  Well above normal.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will likely be in the 60’s. I can’t rule out lower 70’s on Saturday (if we don’t have to deal with clouds).

Highs will range from 68 to 72 on Sunday.  Well above normal.

Unsettled weather with on and off scattered rain chances through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible.  EC guidance is showing some CAPE (energy) Thursday into the weekend.

Thursday night at 1 AM.  Decent CAPE for this time of the year.  We will monitor thunderstorm chances.

Friday night CAPE.  Perhaps enough to add thunder to the forecast.

Saturday.  A little CAPE.

There will be dry time periods. There will also be peak times for rain chances.

One peak is likely to come on Thursday night and Friday.

Severe weather is not anticipated. Heavy rain is currently not anticipated.

The jet stream has an interesting alignment for next week.  Strong flow from the southwest towards the northeast.  We could have an active system at some point later next week

The bright colors represent wind speed.  The scale is on the right (knots).  Notice how it streams from the southwest U.S. into our region.  Impressive dip in the jet stream.

 

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Tuesday morning low temperatures

Tuesday high temperatures

Tuesday night low temperatures

Wednesday high temperatures

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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