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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday night – Some clouds. Cool. Some showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to around 50 degrees.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a shower possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Cool. A few showers possible over mainly western Kentucky/Tennessee and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. Temps will vary a bit over the area depending on cloud cover and some showers.
Winds: North winds at 5-15 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be a shower in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly cloudy. Cool. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Some clouds. A few spotty showers possible. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be a shower in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Some clouds possible. Clearing possible after midnight. A small chance for a remaining shower. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Partly cloudy sky conditions. Cool temperatures. Pleasant night to open the windows.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A cool weekend in store for the region
2. A few spotty showers into Sunday
3. Warmer air by the beginning of the new work week
4. Maybe a cold front around next Thursday or Friday
You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below). That includes the frost forecast.
Cool temperatures are in store for the region over the next couple of days. The good news is we will warm up a little bit by Monday and Tuesday.
Some of the charts are showing lower 80’s by the middle of the new work week. That might feel pretty good after our recent cool spell.
We will have some clouds and showers to deal with Friday night into Sunday. An upper level low in combination with moisture from Hurricane Joaquin will continue to push clouds westward. A bit odd, but not unheard of.
This is the high resolution WRF model. This is the future-cast radar image for Friday evening. You can see some showers over Indiana and Kentucky/Tennessee. Again, those showers will be pushing westward. The showers are represented by the green colors.
The large area of heavy rain further to the southeast will not impact our region. Image from weatherbell.com
Here is the future-cast radar image for Saturday evening. You can see a few showers remain in our area. Showers are in green and yellow.
Radar will have scattered showers from time to time. But, rainfall totals should be on the light side. Rain will be moving from east to west.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Here is the satellite view from Friday afternoon. The clouds and showers are pushing westward. You can see the hurricane in the lower right of this image. Moisture from that system is pouring into the southeast United States and then up along the East Coast.
By Sunday night we should see the showers come to an end as the entire system pulls off to the east.
Monday into Wednesday of next week should be dry. Maybe a cold front towards the end of next week (Thursday or Friday). Low confidence on that topic. Models are showing some showers and thunderstorms along the front.
No major changes in this forecast package. I did increase temperatures a bit early next week.
No major concerns.
No
The only real wild card in the forecast is whether or not you might end up underneath a shower over the next 48 hours. I suspect there will be quite a few showers on radar from time to time. But, not everyone will pick up measurable rainfall.
Currently no frost in the local forecast. Still a little early for frost.
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few showers will be possible over the weekend. Actual rainfall totals should be on the light side.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Saturday into Monday.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Watching a new cold front. Long way off for details.
Friday: Watching a cold front. Long way off for details.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
