Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 29 and 30, 2017: Unsettled weather.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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October 29, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear early.  A few clouds moving in from the northwest overnight.  Chilly.  Some frost is possible.  It does appear southerly winds will develop on Sunday night.  This should help keep temperatures a bit higher.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~ 35 to 40 with pockets of 32 ro 34 likely      KY ~ 35 to 40 pockets of 30 to 34 possible before warmer air arrives overnight.
Winds
:  Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Scattered frost is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No.

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October 30, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of a sprinkle.  Temperatures may fall behind a cold front.  Temperature drop would be a few degrees.  Some areas may have their high temperatures during the morning hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: S SW wind becoming W/NW wind at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A period of clouds possible.  Otherwise, partly cloudy and chilly.  A frost/freeze is possible.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 28 to 35     IL ~ 28 to 35     KY ~ 30 to 35
Winds
:  W NW wind 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Frost or freeze possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No.

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October 31, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Morning sun.  Perhaps some increase in clouds during the afternoon hours.  A chance for a light shower after 4 pm for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Smaller chances elsewhere.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54    IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 48 to 54
Winds: N/NW wind at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts early in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps late afternoon wet roadways.  More likely Tuesday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% (late)    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated late afternoon showers for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Increasing chances of rain.  A few sleet pellets possible.  Cool.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 44    IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 34 to 40
Winds
:  Wind becoming southerly 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%   IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Increasing from the west/southwest.  Scattered at first and then numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but monitor updates.  Evening showers are a possibility.

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November 1, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Showers likely, especially during the morning hours.  Decreasing rain chances through the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55    IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Southerly wind at 5 to 10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Temperatures rising through the night.  Low temperatures will be early in the evening.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 44 to 48 and then rising well into the 50’s    IL ~ 44 to 48 and then rising well into the 50’s     KY ~ 44 to 48 and then rising well into the 50’s
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? Monitor updates

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November 2, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Warm for November.  A shower or thunderstorm possible.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72    IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Southerly wind at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Rumble of thunder possible. Mild for November.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 56 to 62    IL ~ 56 to 62     KY ~ 56 to 62
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but check radars and updates.

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November 3, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Warm for November.   Showers likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 74      KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 7 to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers again possible.  Mild for November.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  I will monitor the lightning risk
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? Monitor updates.

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November 4, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers.  Lower confidence in Saturday’s rain chances.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 74      KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A shower possible.  Mild for November.  Lower confidence in the weekend part of the forecast.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates.

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November 5, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance for showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 74    IL ~ 66 to 74      KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Southerly wind at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A chance for showers.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates.

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November 6, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Morning showers possible.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65    IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 35 to 40    IL ~ 35 to 40     KY ~ 35 to 40
Winds
: Northerly  winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:

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Beau’s Forecast Certainties

Beau’s Forecast Uncertainties

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Sunday night through Wednesday:  No severe weather concerns.

Thursday through Sunday:  Lightning is possible on Thursday.  I am monitoring Friday through Sunday for lightning.
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Sunday night through Friday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

 

Sunday night into Monday night.

 

I am anticipating fairly calm weather over the next 24 hours.  We will have a weak cold front push through the area on Monday.  A band of clouds will be associated with this front.  A sprinkle or two is possible, but widespread measurable rainfall is unlikely.

You can see those clouds on the future-cast satellite imagery.

1 PM Monday cloud forecast.  The clouds will be moving southward.

 

Slightly cooler air on Monday night vs Sunday night.

 

Tuesday through Sunday.

Unsettled weather will bring us into the first week of November.  A frontal boundary will meander in the region from Tuesday into at least Saturday.  This will provide the opportunity for on and off precipitation chances.

Peak rain chances will likely be late Tuesday night and Wednesday.  After that, confidence drops as to the exact timing of additional showers.

There will be a chance for a couple of thunderstorms this week, as well.

At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.  As always, monitor updates.

Temperatures will moderate a bit over the coming days.  Highs by Thursday and Friday will likely be in the 60’s.  Some guidance is showing 70’s.  For now, I will stick with the 60’s and monitor trends.

The GFS is painting rain late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Here is the precipitation map for 7 am on Wednesday.  The rain will be moving east/northeast.

 

 

As far as rainfall totals, confidence is rather low on the verification of the rainfall forecast between now and Sunday.

It appears we are looking at 0.40″ to 0.80″.  Again, confidence is rather low.  Adjustments are likely.

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast for that time period.  They have totals exceeding an inch.

 

 

Temperature Forecast from the GFS model guidance

Sunday night low temperatures

Keep in mind these are model guidance projections.  Temperatures could vary considerably across the region.

Temperatures may vary considerably

Monday high temperatures

Monday night low temperatures

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

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