Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 29, 2016: Incredible weather. Rare to have so many warm days.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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October 28, 2016
Friday Night: Mostly clear.   Patchy fog possible.  Partly cloudy over our northern counties.
What impact is expected
?  Lower visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 6:00 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:13 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:16 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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October 29, 2016
Saturday:
 Morning patchy fog and clouds.  Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny.  Breezy.  Warm for October.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected?
  Lower visibility in areas with fog.  Gusty winds on area lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Gusty west and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
   None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:59 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
  
Moonrise
will be at 6:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:48 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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Saturday Night:
  Perhaps a few clouds.  Patchy fog possible.  Mild for October.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   West and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.  Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 30, 2016
Sunday:
 Mostly sunny.  Well above normal temperatures.  Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected?
  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with higher gusts likely.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:18 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:58 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8

Moonrise
will be at 7:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:20 p.m.  New Moon.
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Sunday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Mild for October.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  Winds becoming light after 11 pm.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 31, 2016
Halloween
Monday:
 Partly to mostly sunny.  Breezy, at times.  Mild for October.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected?  Gusty winds possible.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusts above 25 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9
 
Moonrise
will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:54 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Monday
Night: Mostly clear.  Mild.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None anticipated, at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 1, 2016
Tuesday:
 Mostly sunny.  Mild for October.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Most likely none

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable winds at 6-12 mph.  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:56 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9

Moonrise
will be at 8:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:32 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
.
Tuesday Night: 
Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Variable winds  at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 2, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny.  Very warm for November.
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East winds becoming south/southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:55 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9

Moonrise
will be at 9:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:12 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: 
Partly cloudy.  
What impact is expected
? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Where is the cold weather?
  2. WELL above normal temperatures into the first week of November
  3. Dry conditions.  Field and brush fires will becoming an issue
  4. Patchy dense fog

 

Okay, now this is just ridiculous.  I had to increase temperatures for Saturday.  It now appears that middle 80’s will occur in our local area.  Keep in mind, normal highs are in the lower 60’s.  This is stunning weather.  I have never experienced an October like this.  Many cities have experienced their warmest October on record.  We are not finished, either.

Dry weather into the weekend.  Warm temperatures.  Well above normal temperatures.  Plenty of sunshine, as well.  It will feel more like spring/summer than autumn.

Patchy dense fog will be possible during the overnight hours.

Gusty winds will occur on Saturday (late morning/afternoon).  Perhaps again on Sunday and Monday.

Here is the NAM wind forecast for Saturday afternoon.  Gusts above 20 mph are likely to occur.

hires_uv10m_dir_ky_29

We will soon enter drought conditions.  We are already abnormally dry.

Here is the official drought monitor map.  We are currently in abnormally dry conditions.  The next stage would be moderate drought.

 

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Here are some more charts showing you how dry we have been.

These first two maps are the SPI index.  I like to use these maps to show you the dryness of the ground.

State map

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County map

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These next maps show you how much precipitation we need.  I think this is underdone.

 

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Soil moisture anaomalies.

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Percent of soil moisture capacity.  Dry.

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The long range charts show the ridge dominating our weather pattern into the second week of October.  A couple of troughs are showing up in the charts, but nothing overly impressive.  Normally ridges deliver above normal temperatures.  Troughs deliver below normal temperatures.

This is the month to date temperature departures.  Incredible, to say the least.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

Here are the 500 mb charts from the GFS.  What you are looking for are ridges and troughs.

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Let’s take a look at the GFS charts.

This first chart is for tomorrow (Saturday).  Red equals above normal heights.  See the ridge?  LARGE ridge.

gfs_z500anorm_us_9

This next chart is for October 31st.  Ridge!  A small trough over the Dakota’s.

gfs_z500anorm_us_19

This next chart is for November 2nd.  Ridge.  Above normal temperatures will continue.  Check out the low over the southwest United States.  If it were January or February we would be monitoring that system for snow and ice.

gfs_z500anorm_us_26

This next chart is for November 4th.   Large ridge.

gfs_z500anorm_us_32

This next chart is for November 12th.  Appears we are coming out of a trough (see it there on the East Coast)

Ridge building back into our region from the west.  Are we going to have fall weather?  Starting to wonder.

gfs_z500anorm_us_53

There are some hints, in the long range charts, of colder air towards the third week of the month.  I will continue to monitor trends.

Here is the map for November 13th.  There is a trough.  Perhaps colder air towards the middle of November.

gfs-ens_z500anorm_us_65

Here are some anomaly maps.  Anomaly maps show you how far above or below normal temperatures will be.

This first map is for Saturday, October 29th   Scale is on the right.

Click images to enlarge

sat

This next map is for Sunday, October 30th

sunday

This next map is for Tuesday, November 1st

mond

This next map is for November 2nd

wednesday

This next map is for November 3rd.  Well above normal temperatures for the upcoming seven days.

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If we don’t flip the pattern in November then I don’t know what happens next.  How long can this pattern continue?  Good question.

Check out this map.  This is one of the long range models.  This is for November.  The entire United States experiences above normal temperatures for the Month of November.

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201611_1

 

How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast

No rain in our forecast through at least Tuesday.

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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm   Locally higher.
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Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday night through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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.No major changes in this update.
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Patchy dense fog could lower visibility over the coming nights.  Fog will mix out during the early to mid morning hours.

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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