Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.—

Wednesday night –  Cloudy in the evening with a couple of showers or storms possible.  Many will remain dry.  Then clearing and cooler.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 42 to 46 degrees
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%-40% before midnight.
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps isolated to scattered before midnight.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Evening wet roadways.  Maybe lightning early in the evening.

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

Thursday –  Quite a bit of sun and cooler.  Fall.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds:  Northwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Thursday night –  Clear and colder.  Frost possible.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from  34 to 40 degrees
Winds: North at 4-8 mph and then becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Frost possible

Friday –  Mostly sunny and cool.  Some increase in clouds possible during the afternoon.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds:  East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? None

Friday night –  Increasing clouds.  A shower possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from  40 to 46 degrees
Winds: East/northeast at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways if rain does develop.

Saturday –  Cloudy.  A chance for a shower.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds:  Southeast  winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to perhaps a period of widespread showers
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and pumpkins possible

Saturday night –  Cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 48 to 54 degrees
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph 
What is the chance for precipitation?  30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in mind.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways

Sunday –  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 60’s
Winds:  South.southeast  winds at 6-12 mph turning to the southwest late in the day at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Might have a plan B
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways

Sunday night –  Cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 48 to 54 degrees
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in mind.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways

Monday –  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Monday night –  Clear.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 48 to 56 degrees
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

Tuesday –  Partly cloudy.  Mild for October.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 70’s
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is   Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.   Quite a bit of rain fell over parts of the area.  Rainfall total maps.
2.  Frost possible on Friday morning
3.  More rain possible Friday night into Sunday.
4.  Questions remain on the timing for Halloween.  Monitoring the guidance closely.

Let’s take a look at rainfall totals.  Boy, did the forecast bust for parts of southeast Missouri and a few counties in southern Illinois.  Odd, to say the least.  Was expecting most of my forecast counties to receive 1-2 inches of rain with some pockets of 3″-4″.  There were a few slivers in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois that received less than 0.10″

However, on the other hand, the forecast was a perfect one for far southeast Missouri, much of southern Illinois, and western Kentucky/Tennessee.

It is tricky to get the rainfall forecast correct in every county.  Seems like there is always a bust somewhere in the area.  Same with snow events.  Someone always ends up with more and some less.

Here are the radar estimated numbers.  Scale is on the left.  Then the second image are some actual reporting stations.

Click images for a larger view.

Looking ahead

Dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and much of Friday.  Expect high pressure to dominate our weather.  That means cooler than normal conditions and low humidity levels.  This could lead to frost by Friday morning.  Temperatures will  dip into the 30’s across much of the area by Friday morning.  Perhaps not a freeze, but cold enough for more frost.  Many have already had a killing frost (not everyone, yet).

All eyes then turn to Halloween.  Last week I was thinking it would be dry and cool for Halloween.  The cool part might have been right.  But, more and more it appears rain chances will arrive on Friday night and linger into Sunday.

The good news is that there will be breaks in the rain.  Two distinct periods of rain are possible.  One as early as Friday night and Saturday morning.  Then another on Sunday.

But, here is the problem.  The very best guidance that I look at does not agree.  The GFS guidance brings precipitation into our region earlier than the EC guidance.  The EC is about 12 hours slower than the GFS.

There has been some guidance that also indicated thunderstorms would be possible with this system.  Bottom line is that there remain a lot of questions on how this evolves.

The differences in the guidance could mean either a dry Halloween night or a very wet one.  And so there is the forecast problem.

At this point the system is still forming.  Low confidence on the Saturday forecast.  Timing will need to be worked out.

I would recommend to start thinking about a plan B for Halloween activities.  Just in case the EC is correct.  I will  monitor trends in the data.

A couple of maps.  Two different models.  Two different solutions.

This first one is the NAM model guidance from WeatherBell.com

This is for Saturday afternoon around 2 to 4 pm.  The NAM shows quite a bit of rain in the region.

Moving forward to Saturday evening.  The NAM shows the rain on the way out.  This is the previous three hour rainfall totals.  So, that means rain would be exiting.  But, will this verify?  Threading the needle on this one.

This next graphic is from the GFS model guidance.  It shows precipitation breaking apart on Saturday evening.

This is certainly a possibility.  There is a lot of support for this idea.  Let’s keep watching.

I am leaning for a warmer than normal November with above normal precipitation.

Don’t forget our local city view radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

First map is the radar animation.  You can watch the showers moving through the area.

No significant changes.  I continue to wrestle with the Halloween forecast.

No concerns through Friday afternoon.  Frost possible Thursday night/Friday morning.

No.

Frost possible Thursday night.

The wild card remains the Halloween forecast.  It certainly appears that it will rain between late Friday night and Sunday.  The question will be how much rain for Saturday afternoon and night.  And that is a question mark.  Timing of this event is questionable.  We may experience two separate rain events.  One late Friday night and Saturday morning and another one on Sunday.

Be thinking about a plan B for Halloween.  Just in case.

Possibly some frost on Thursday night and Friday morning.  Lows in the 30s are anticipated.  If winds can die off and sky conditions clear then frost would be a possibility.  Otherwise, not tracking any other frost potentials.

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rain returns by Friday night into the weekend.  We could experience two rounds of rain.  We may have a break on Saturday afternoon or evening.  Timing of this system is all but certain.  Sorry.  I hope to iron out details as we move forward.  We are talking about 6-12 hour differences in the data.  That is like throwing a basketball from 50 yards and making it.  At least this far out.

Rainfall totals should range from 0.30″-0.60″ with pockets of heavier possible.  Again, still several days away.  Let’s monitor it.

I see NOAA is saying maybe an inch of rain.  Then another NOAA office is saying less than that.  That tells me that there is not agreement on how this plays out.

I will monitor updates, as always.  I know many of you have events on Saturday.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Thursday and Friday during the day.  Monitoring the weekend

.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday:  Currently, severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Let’s take a look at some winter data.  I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.  

UPDATE:  October 20, 2015:  Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November.  A couple of storm systems to monitor.  I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States.  The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter.  Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast.  If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast.  Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.

The question will be how far south do these systems track.  Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama.  That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.

I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter.  The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event.  Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic.  I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures.  Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast.  It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.

Drought continues to be the lead story.  Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region).  The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November.  The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.

Precious discussions below.

One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties.  This is a concern.  I do believe in repeating patterns.  Typically October and November set the stage for the winter.  Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

This next map is for January

This next map is for February

This next map is for March

Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

And, let’s take at look at March.

So, what does this mean?

Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST

NOAA has released their winter forecast.  I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region.  But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet.  The long range cycle is still in the developing stages.  The long range cycle typically develops during October and November.  It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter.  Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.

I am concerned about our dry weather.  October has been dry, thus far.  Not the best way to start out the next cycle.  However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go.  Will the weather become more active during that time period?  Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.

Here is what NOAA said today.

This first map is their temperature outlook.  They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States.  In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures.  The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.

I would have brought the blue further north into our region.  It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter.  That is when December into early March is averaged out.  That does not mean every month will be colder than normal.  It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal.  We will see how it goes.

I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States.  The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air.  If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA saying about our region?  They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.

Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast.  They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter.  Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes.  As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA forecasting for our region?  They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.

Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region.  If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt.  Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance.  Key word being specific.

We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.