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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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October 26, 2016
What impact is expected? Spotty wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds with the line of storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming west and northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars.
Sunset will be at 6:02 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:21 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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October 27, 2016
Thursday: Morning clouds giving way to partly sunny sky conditions. A little cooler than Wednesday. Rain should have moved well off to our east by sunrise Thursday.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west/northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:01 p.m.
UV Index: 5-6
Moonrise will be at 4:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:45 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds perhaps becoming east at 4-8 mph. Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 28, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Above normal temperatures, yet again.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming southwest during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:16 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:00 p.m.
UV Index: 7-9
Moonrise will be at 5:13 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:16 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Friday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most Likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 29, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:59 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 6:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:48 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Mild for October.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 4-8 mph. Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 30, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:58 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:20 p.m. New Moon.
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Mild for October.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 31, 2016
Halloween
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Windy. Mild for October. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
UV Index: 7-9
Moonrise will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:54 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated, at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 1, 2016
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Mild for October. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:20 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:56 p.m.
UV Index: 7-9
Moonrise will be at 8:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 2, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East winds becoming south/southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:55 p.m.
UV Index:
Moonrise will be at 9:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:12 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Spotter class
- Cold front moving through the area Wednesday night
- Very warm temperatures ahead of us
- Pattern flip towards the middle of November?
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
A cold front will pass through our region Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A broken band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Many areas will remain dry. Some locations might pick up 0.10″ to 0.30″. This is not going to be a big rain event. Again, many will miss out on rain.
Our warm weather will continue into November. Temperature anomalies are going to be impressive. I am forecasting upper 70’s and lower 80’s on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. This is amazing. I don’t ever recall an October like this. Typically we have warm weather with plenty of cool shots. Not this year. I suspect this will be one of the warmest October’s on record. Records go back to the 1880’s.
Check out the 6-10 and 8-14 temperature outlooks. Red equals above normal temperatures.
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Here is what the GFS high and low temperatures look like. Just look at all that warm air.
There might be a stronger cold front towards the end of next week. That would deliver somewhat cooler air.
I put together this video. I have looped the temperature anomalies through November 10th. Lot of red on these maps. Red equals above normal to much above normal temperatures.
Weekend:
The weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry. Gusty winds on Sunday. You can expect highs to top out in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s A spring weekend!
I continue to monitor the middle of November for a pattern flip. The models are starting to hint at that. We will just have to be patient and continue to monitor trends. If the warm weather continues past the middle of November then all bets are off. I don’t know when the pattern shift would occur. I am banking on significant changes towards the middle of November.
You can register at the following LINK – CLICK HERE
Click graphic to register, as well
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
This map indicates the rainfall anticipated on Wednesday night. Otherwise, dry weather through the weekend.
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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night: Maybe a rumble of thunder. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday into Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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I updated temperatures and winds for the weekend and next week
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No significant weather concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
