October 27, 2017
Big weather changes.
Beau’s morning video update
https://youtu.be/tNRX8SVzcwA
Friday morning Facebook update
https://wtalk.co/J8PRL7F2
Radar link http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Highlights
1. Cold front sweeping through the region
2. Rain will rapidly develop and cover radar over the coming hours
3. Greatest rain totals will be over Kentucky/Tennessee
4. Frost/freeze possible this weekend (esp SAT night).
A strong cold front is currently bisecting the region.
Temperatures ahead of the front are in the middle to upper 50’s. Temperatures behind the cold front are in the 30’s and 40’s.
At 7 am there was not much on the radar. I am forecasting precipitation to rapidly blossom over the next few hours.
Rainfall totals of 0.05″ to 0.30″ are anticipated for southeast Missouri. Rain totals of 0.10″ to 0.50″ are anticipated for southern Illinois and northwest Tennessee. Rain totals of 0.25″ to 0.70″ are anticipated for western Kentucky.
There could be locally higher amounts over Kentucky.
The totals will be the lowest over the western counties in the region. That means southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Increasing totals as you move further and further east.
Temperatures by this afternoon will have fallen into the 40’s.
Gusty winds are possible today and tonight.
Lows by Saturday morning will range from 28 to 35 degrees. The coldest air will likely be over southeast Missouri.
Saturday morning should be sunny with clouds redeveloping from the north. It is possible that low stratus clouds move back into at least southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. We will have to see how far southward they push. Lower confidence on the cloud cover for Saturday.
Cold on Saturday with highs only in the 40’s.
A frost/freeze alert for Saturday night. Lows from 26 to 34 degrees.
Sunday will deliver sunshine. Cool. Highs from 48 to 54 degrees.
The next chance of rain will be Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Just not sure about cloud cover on Saturday. Here is the Saturday 1 pm future-cast satellite imagery. Blue would be clouds.
— Updated 2017 Oct 27 07:35 AM by Beau Dodson
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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 26, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds late. Winds will increase through the night. A 20% of a shower after 4 am. Not as cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54
Winds: South wind 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph winds. Higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Small chance for wet roads after 4 am. Gusty winds developing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% late IL ~ 20% late KY ~ 10% late
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated to scattered late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 27, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain developing before sunrise over southeast Missouri. Breezy, at times. Rain will develop and spread eastward during the morning and afternoon hours. The rain band will expand in size. Temperatures will fall through the day. There is some discussion about how far west the rain will develop early in the day. Questions remain from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL. It is possible that areas along and west of that line receive little in the way of rainfall.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 early in the day IL ~ 55 to 60 early in the day KY ~ 55 to 60 Falling temperatures as we move through the day.
Winds: Variable wind 8 to 16 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Rain ending from west to east. Rain may be mixed with sleet/snow showers after midnight. This would mainly be over western Kentucky (further east you go the better the chance). Turning colder. If sleet/snow were to occur it would just be a novelty and would cause no impacts. We may have a period of clearing late Friday night. If that happens then temperatures will drop a few more degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 32 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40
Winds: Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps a freeze where the wind subsides over southeast Missouri. A small chance of frost. The risk would be greater but winds and clouds will likely keep frost from forming.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% Ending from west to east.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous, but ending from west to east late Friday night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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October 28, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: LOW confidence on Saturday cloud cover forecast. It is possible we end up with sun. Clouds should redevelop from the north. That means that southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky have a better chance of clouds than say southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/Tennessee. Chilly. A chance of drizzle if stratus clouds develop.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 48 IL ~ 45 to 48 KY ~ 45 to 48
Winds: North and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways if stratus develops with patchy drizzle. Low confidence.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 15% KY ~ 15%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty drizzle possible if stratus clouds develop. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for outdoor events. It will be chilly.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
FREEZE and FROST ALERT
Forecast: Some clouds. Colder. Frost and freeze conditions likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35
Winds: Light wind.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost or freeze possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will be monitoring the stratus clouds over the northeastern part of the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 29, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny with cool temperatures. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph. Winds may become southwest during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost possible. It does appear southerly winds will develop on Sunday afternoon and night. This could mean temperatures will be a bit warmer than recent nights. Not a lot, but a little.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40
Winds: Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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October 30, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning sun. Cool. Some afternoon clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: S SW wind becoming NW wind at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A period of clouds possible. Otherwise, partly cloudy and cool. Fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 44 KY ~ 36 to 44
Winds: W NW wind 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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October 31, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Intervals of clouds. Cool. A cold front may be near the region on Tuesday. I will monitor temperature trends.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: W NW wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A slight chance of a shower. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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November 1, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: E/SE wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 48 to 52
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday through Wednesday: No severe weather concerns.
Weather Highlights:
The big weather story over the coming days will be a strong cold front on Friday. Rain will develop with the front and temperatures will fall through the day.
Details
It was a nice day across our region. Check out these 3 pm temperatures. Wow.
Click image for a larger view.
It was also a windy day around our incoming storm systems. Winds in our region have been gusting into the 20’s. Winds well to our north and west have been in the 30’s to 50’s. Strong winds.
It is snowing in the Dakota’s and Minnesota.
Wind gust map. Click the image for a larger view. See the white and blue? That is snow.
The numbers are wind gusts.
Snowing in North Dakota
Thursday night Forecast
Winds will pick up, ahead of a cold front, on Thursday night. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of the front. Lows on Thursday night won’t be as cold as recent nights. Lows mostly in the 50’s.
There may be an increase in clouds late Thursday night.
There is some debate about winds tonight (Thursday night). BUFKIT is showing winds gusting into the 20’s. Model guidance shows winds above 35 mph.
I am going with winds gusting into the 15 to 25 mph range. I can’t rule out some gusts above 30 mph.
BUFKIT shows 50 knot winds not too far off the surface. The question is whether the mixing layer will be all that high to bring some of those gustier winds to the surface. It appears the mixing layer does not reach high enough to bring down the higher winds (higher meaning 35 or 40 mph).
These are soundings. I am able to look higher up into the atmosphere and see what is going on above the surface.
Friday into Sunday
A strong cold front will sweep through the region on Friday. The rain will develop along and behind the cold front. Normally rain develops ahead of fronts. This is called an ana-front. Ana-fronts have rain behind them.
The cold front will move from west to east during the daylight hours.
Spotty light rain showers will develop over southeast Missouri before sunrise. The rain will expand and spread eastward into Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee from the 7 am to 11 am time frame. It will encompass most of the area into the afternoon and evening hours.
There is some question about the northwest part of our region. The question is how much rain will fall. It will likely be lighter than areas to the east. See graphics.
Rainfall totals of 0.20″ to 0.40″ for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Rainfall totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ for southwest Illinois into western Kentucky. Northwest Tennessee will likely be in the 0.20″ to 0.40″ range.
There will be bands of higher totals. Higher totals would be in the 0.60 to 1.20 range.
Here are five different models and five different totals.
Remember, computer models are for guidance. They are not gospel. We use them to help mold the forecast, but rarely are they spot on.
Do you see the theme in these maps? The theme is more east vs west.
GFS model
Click to enlarge
NAM model
NAM 3K model
Canadian model
EC model guidance rainfall totals
Here is the official NOAA WPC rainfall total forecast, as well.
Temperatures on Friday should peak during the morning hours. Highs will likely be in the 54 to 58-degree range. Perhaps a little higher in a few spots. Temperatures will fall as the cold front moves through your area.
By late afternoon and evening, temperatures will have fallen into the middle to upper 40’s across the region. A chilly rain will continue into the overnight hours.
Here is the 24-hour temperature change map. This is the temperature change between 4 pm Thursday and 4 pm Friday. Temperatures will have dropped 20 to 30+ degrees.
Here is the NAM model guidance temperature forecast for Friday.
7 AM
10 AM
1 PM
4 PM
Rain will continue into Friday night/Saturday morning. Meanwhile, colder air will filter into the region from the northwest. Temperatures will likely fall into the 30’s by Saturday morning.
If clouds clear over southeast Missouri (late Friday night) then a frost or freeze would be possible. Just not sure the wind subsides and the clouds clear. Either way, it will be cold with temperatures anywhere from 30 to 35 degrees over much of southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. Temperatures will be in the 30’s elsewhere.
The GFS has temperatures well down into the 30’s by 7 am Saturday.
Either way, it will be chilly by Saturday morning.
I can’t completely rule out the rain mixing with sleet or snow late Friday night/Saturday morning. This would be a novelty event with no real impact.
Clouds (low clouds) may linger well into Saturday. I would not be surprised if we remain cloudy into Saturday evening. Lower confidence on Saturday cloud cover. A sprinkler or sleet pellet/flurry will be possible early on Saturday. No impact.
Both Saturday and Sunday will be chilly. Highs in the 40’s on Saturday and perhaps around 50 on Sunday. Overnight lows Sunday and Monday morning in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s with frost or freeze conditions likely.
Let’s take a look at some animations. Click the graphic to enlarge.
Here is the WRF SPC model guidance. Future-cast radar. Rain develops before sunrise over southeast Missouri. It then spreads eastward and expands in coverage.
Here is the future-cast radar for our cold front on Friday.
Here are the temperatures for late Thursday night into Friday night. Notice how they drop during the day.
Here are the 3K NAM model guidance rainfall totals through Saturday morning.
Temperature Forecast
Thursday night low temperatures
Friday high temperatures (early in the day)
Friday night low temperatures
Dry weather is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday.
A weak cold front will move through the region on Monday. Another system arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
Some rain showers will be possible by Wednesday/Wednesday night. We still have a few days to monitor that system.
GFS guidance does show rain on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
GFS map for Wednesday morning.
Click images to enlarge them
I am monitoring another system around November 10th through 12th. That could be a bigger system.
GFS guidance shows that system. Deep low over Missouri. That would mean thunderstorms for our area.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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