Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 25, 2016: Warm weather. Rain on Wednesday afternoon/night?

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October 24, 2016
Monday Night: Mostly clear.   Perhaps some patchy fog.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northeast winds becoming east winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 6:05 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:07 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

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October 25, 2016
Tuesday:
   Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What impact is expected?
 None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
UV index will
be
 5-7
Moonrise
will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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October 25, 2016
Tuesday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Cool autumn night.  Perhaps some patchy fog.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southeast at 3-6 mph.   Winds becoming more southerly overnight.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

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October 26, 2016
Wednesday:
 Partly cloudy.   Warm.  Perhaps breezy.  Increasing clouds from the west during the afternoon hours.  Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the afternoon hours.  Most areas will remain dry.
What impact is expected?
  Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.  Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 7-14 mph with some higher gusts possible.  Winds might become more south/southwest during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 Perhaps isolated to scattered during the afternoon hours.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars during the afternoon (mainly MO/IL)
Sunrise
will be at 7:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:02 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9 (depending on cloud cover)
  
Moonrise
will be at 3:21 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: 
Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  Winds becoming west.    
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~  40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered 
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updated forecasts and radars.
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October 27, 2016
Thursday:
 Partly sunny.  A little cooler than Wednesday.  Rain should have moved well off to our east by sunrise Thursday.
What impact is expected?
  Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Becoming north/northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None anticipated
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:01 p.m.
UV Index:  5-6

Moonrise
will be at 4:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:45 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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Thursday Night: 
Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Cool.
What impact is expected
?  None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  North winds perhaps becoming east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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October 28, 2016
Friday:
 Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.  Above normal temperatures, yet again.
What impact is expected?
  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:16 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:00 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9 (depending on cloud cover)
  
Moonrise
will be at 5:13 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:16 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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Friday Night: 
Some clouds possible.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most Likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 29, 2016
Saturday:
 Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What impact is expected?
  None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-80 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
   Most likely none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:59 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
  
Moonrise
will be at 6:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:48 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Saturday Night:
 Mostly clear.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North winds becoming east and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 30, 2016
Sunday:
 Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected?
  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:18 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:58 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8

Moonrise
will be at 7:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:20 p.m.  New Moon.
.
Sunday Night: 
Mostly clear.  
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   East and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

October 31, 2016
Halloween
Monday:
 Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild for October.
What impact is expected?

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
UV Index:  7-9
 
Moonrise
will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:54 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
.
Monday Night: 
Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None anticipated, at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

 

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Warm weather to continue
  2. Cold front Wednesday/Wednesday night
  3. Showers?
  4. Dry weather in the extended
  5. Pattern flip towards the middle of November?

Well, if you like mild weather then you will love my forecast.  Above normal temperatures will continue into the first week of November.  Not saying we won’t have some cool nights, but overall it looks warmer than normal.

Here is the 6-10 day outlook.  The second graphic is the 8-14 day outlook.  These maps show you the probability for above normal temperatures.

6to10dayoutlook

8-14 Day Outlook

8to14dayoutlook

I also pulled up the CIPS analogs.  I like to use CIPS to see how the overall analogs are trending.  Analogs are past years that are similar to our current pattern.  It is also showing the possibility of above normal temperatures continuing.

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Here is what the GFS model is showing for temperatures through November 8th

kpah_2016102406_min_max_16

GFS temperature anomalies as we head into November.

The red colors equal above normal temperature anomalies.  Blue indicates below normal anomalies.

This first image is for October 29th (Saturday)

satmorninganoms T

This next image is for November 1st.

nov1

This next image is for November 2nd

nov2nd

This next image is for November 4th

nov4th

This next image is for November 5th
nov5th

FINALLY on November 8th the GFS indicates below normal temperatures.  That is in fantasy land (so far out).  We call that fantasy land because the models don’t do very well once you get past a few days.

nov9th

 

A cold front will push towards our region on Wednesday afternoon and night.  This front will trigger a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  This is not shaping up to be a heavy rainfall event.  I would not be surprised if some areas remained completely dry.  Average rainfall totals are probably going to be in the 0.10″ to 0.30″ range.   Thunderstorms could produce locally higher totals.  I will monitor trends in the guidance.

Let me show you three different models.  The NAM model, the GFS model, and the Canadian GEM model.  These maps are showing you how much rain each model thinks this system will produce.  Not much.  This will be for the Wednesday and Wednesday night event.

NAM

namtotals

GFS

gfstotals

Canadian GEM

canadiangemmodel

All of these models are showing meager rainfall totals.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

This first image is for 4 pm on Wednesday afternoon.  You can see a band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

4pmnam

Wednesday evening at 7 pm

7pmnam

Wednesday night at 10 pm

10pmnam

Thursday morning at 1 am

1amnam

Thursday morning at 7 am

7amthur

A weak system will pass near our region on Friday/Saturday.  At this time, it appears rain chances will be small.

Perhaps another system around November third or fourth.  Rain.

If you are a regular follower of my weather information then I would encourage you to attend one of the FREE upcoming STORM SPOTTER classes.

You can register at the following LINK – CLICK HERE

Click graphic to register, as well

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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

No rain in the forecast through Tuesday night.  I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night for another cold front.  A few showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
Rainfall totals on Wednesday and Wednesday night appear to be light.  Weatherbell.com image.  Click for a larger view.

WPC?NOAA rainfall forecast

wpc_total_precip_ky_12

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Tueday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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wedmorningtemps
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Wednesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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 wedafternoontemps
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Regional Radar
 

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated

Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday:  Cold front moves into the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  I can’t rule out a thunderstorm.  Not anticipating severe weather.

Thursday into Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday and Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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No major adjustments in this update.
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whatamiconcered
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No significant weather concerns.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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