Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 24, 2016: Mild temperatures.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

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October 23, 2016
Sunday Night: Mostly clear.  Cool.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north at 4-8 mph.  Gustier during the evening hours.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m.  Waning Crescent.

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October 24, 2016
Monday:
   Mostly sunny.  Pleasant.
What impact is expected?
 None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
  North and northeast at 5-10 mph.  
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:05 p.m.
UV index will
be
 5-6
Moonrise
will be at 1:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:07 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
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Monday Night: 
Mostly clear. 
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
  Northeast winds becoming east winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 25, 2016
Tuesday:
   Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What impact is expected?
 None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
UV index will
be
 5-7
Moonrise
will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Tuesday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Cool autumn night.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southeast at 3-6 mph.   Winds becoming more southerly overnight.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 26, 2016
Wednesday:
 Partly cloudy.   Warm.  Perhaps breezy.  Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
  Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.  Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 7-14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 Perhaps isolated to scattered during the afternoon hours.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Sunrise
will be at 7:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:02 p.m.
UV Index:  3-5 (depending on cloud cover)
  
Moonrise
will be at 3:21 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Wednesday Night: 
Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.   
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered 
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updated forecasts.
.

October 27, 2016
Thursday:
 Partly sunny.  Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected?
  Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Becoming northwest at 5-10 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None anticipated
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:01 p.m.
UV Index:  5-6

Moonrise
will be at 4:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:45 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Thursday Night: 
Mostly clear to partly cloudy and cool.
What impact is expected
?  None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northwest to northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
.

October 28, 2016
Friday:
 Partly cloudy.  I will be monitoring a storm system that might pass through our region.
What impact is expected?
  Perhaps some wet roadways.  Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.

Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise
will be at 7:16 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:00 p.m.
UV Index:  3-5 (depending on cloud cover)
  
Moonrise
will be at 5:13 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:16 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Friday Night: 
Some clouds possible.  I will be monitoring a storm system passing through or near our region.  Perhaps some showers.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North winds becoming east and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor updated forecasts. 

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Wow
  2. Dry
  3. Rain chances?
  4. Pattern flip?

If you are a regular follower of my weather information then I would encourage you to attend one of the FREE upcoming STORM SPOTTER classes.

You can register at the following LINK – CLICK HERE

Click graphic to register, as well

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What a stunning weather day.  Sunday delivered temperatures into the 70’s.  What more could you ask for?  For October, at least.  Wonderful day.  A little breezy, at times.  We can live with that.

A weak cold front will push through the region Sunday night and Monday morning.  This will shave a few degrees off the forecast, but nothing dramatic.  Highs on Monday and Tuesday will most likely remain in the middle to upper 60’s.  Fairly normal, for this time of the year.

A stronger cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A few days ago it appeared this front would deliver a decent rain event to the region.  I cautioned you, however, that the models have been doing this for the past four to eight weeks.  A system looks potent several days out.  Then, as the system draws closer to the region, it appears weaker and weaker.  That is the case for Wednesday.

Here is what the GFS model is showing.  Nice low over northern Illinois on Wednesday afternoon.  Windy (tight isobars)

This first map is for Wednesday at 7 pm.  You can see the green (showers) pushing though portions of our region.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_14

Then you can see the 1 AM Thursday morning weather map.  The low is over Chicago.  A band of precipitation extends along the cold front into our region.  Still some question on the exact timing of the front.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_15

Then this last map is for Thursday morning at 7 AM.  The front has pushed through our region.  The low is located over Detroit, Michigan.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_16

Rainfall totals are shaping up to be less than 0.25″.  Some areas might not receive rain.  If thunderstorms form then rainfall totals would be heavier (at least in a few locations).

Here is the rainfall forecast from the GFS model.  It shows some locations receiving no measurable rain.  Meager.

qpf_048h-wxt_ov

The threat for severe weather, at this time, appears small or non-existent.  As always, I will monitor trends.

Our dry October continues.  It has also been a warm month.  This might end up being one of the top five warmest October’s on record.  Amazing.  What an odd year this has been.

We could use rain.  Soil moisture anomalies graphic.    Our entire region is in the dry category.

moistureanaomalies

 

Percent of normal rainfall graphic.  Some areas have only received 5%-10% of their normal monthly rainfall.

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Rainfall totals since the first of the month.  Some locations have received less than 0.25″.

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Equally amazing have been the temperatures.  WELL above normal.  I suspect this will be a top five warmest October’s on record.

Regional Climate Center maps.

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I am still forecasting a possible pattern flip as we moves towards the middle of November.  There are a lot of signals for a colder than normal winter.  That does not always mean snow, but it is a start.

It has been awhile since we have experienced a true-blue cold winter.  Could this be the year?  Time will tell.

Here are two articles for you to read.  Jonah Cohen is a long range forecasting.  He does a great job.

First article

Colder than normal winter?  It is still a bit early to make a winter forecast.  Here are some thoughts. Link

Second article

John Dee’s soap box concerning long range outlooks.  Link

Time will tell.  I know many of you are wondering about winter.

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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
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No rain in the forecast through Tuesday night.  I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday night for another cold front.  Perhaps some showers or storms as it passes through the area.
Rainfall totals on Wednesday and Wednesday night appear to be light.  Weatherbell.com image.  Click for a larger view.
WPC rainfall forecast
wpc_total_precip_ky_16

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Monday morning low temperatures
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.monlows


Monday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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monhighs
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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tuelows
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Tuesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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 tuehighs
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Regional Radar
 

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Sunday night and Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated

Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday:  Cold front moves into the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  I can’t rule out a thunderstorm.  Not anticipating severe weather.

Thursday into Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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No major adjustments in this update.
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whatamiconcered
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No significant weather concerns for the coming days.  Fairly calm weather.  Dry
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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