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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 23, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A slight chance of showers late tonight for southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 43 to 46
Winds: Northwest winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog. Perhaps a few wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 24, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Breezy. A mix of sun and clouds (greatest cloud cover would be over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky). Isolated showers (mainly over southern Illinois). Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: West and northwest at 12 to 24 mph with higher gusts.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated for southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 24, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early and then some clearing. Colder. If the winds subside then a chance of frost. A small chance of an evening shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds: Northwest winds at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible early in the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 25, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A light shower possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 60 IL ~ 52 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: West and southwest 6 to 12 mph. Higher gusts possible. Winds variable at times as an upper-level disturbance moves through our region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 26, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A 20% of a shower after 4 am. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
Winds: South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 27, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some clouds. A cold front will move through early in the day. Temperatures may fall through the day. Clouds and precipitation possible behind the cold front. A 70% chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Variable winds 7 to 14 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Any remaining showers will come to an end. Turning colder. Frost possible if the winds subside.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40
Winds: Northwest winds 8 to 16 mph early and then 5 to 10 mph late
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Evening wet roadways. Perhaps frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% early KY ~ 40% early
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars early in the night.
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October 28, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost or freeze possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35
Winds: Light winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost or freeze possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 28, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost or freeze possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35
Winds: Light winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost or freeze possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday through Thursday: No severe weather concerns.
Friday through Sunday: I am monitoring another cold front on Friday. A low-end risk for lightning with the front. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Weather Highlights:
Fairly quiet few days ahead of us.
Monday afternoon satellite showed half the area in clouds. The other half was experiencing sunshine.
Clouds will linger into tonight. Greatest cloud coverage will be over Illinois and Kentucky. Some light showers possible, as well. It will also be windy.
A cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday. This front will be accompanied by a few clouds and perhaps isolated showers. The best chance for showers will be over our northeast counties of the region. That would include southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Windy weather will continue on Tuesday, as well.
Winds on Tuesday may gust at or above 30 mph. Combine that with highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s and you have a rather raw autumn day. Some of the guidance pops us into the middle 50’s. Clouds may be the deciding factor when it comes to high temperatures.
Dry weather Wednesday and Thursday. Cool with highs on Wednesday in the 50’s and highs on Thursday in the 60’s.
Tuesday wind gust map
Long range forecast discussion
A cold front will push through the region on Friday night. This front might be accompanied by a quick moving band of light showers. Some of the latest data shows the front moving through our region dry.
The EC is showing a band of rain across the region Friday night and Saturday morning. It is also showing snow.
Snow chances appear small, at this time. I will monitor the trends in guidance.
Here are the six hour rainfall totals from 7 pm Friday through 1 am on Saturday. EC model is wetter than the dry GFS.
Much colder air will arrive behind the front. We may be looking at our first widespread frost/freeze next Saturday or Sunday morning. We have several days to monitor the details.
Check out the GFS temperatures on Friday at 1 pm. Gee, you think there might be a front in there?
The GFS is faster with the front than the EC. GFS has a fast bias. I will monitor the timing. I still have frontage passage for Friday/Friday night.
The GFS is quite cold on Saturday morning. It has a cold bias, so I have to be careful about trusting it solely. Either way, it will be colder this coming weekend. Perhaps the coolest air of the season, thus far.
Let’s look at the GFS temperatures.
Saturday morning
Sunday morning
Monday morning
Temperature Forecast
Monday night low temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Tuesday night low temperatures
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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