Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 22, 2016: Pleasant weather. Cool.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

Logo- Plain JPEG

.

2015-03-27_21-14-30

Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

.

2015-10-08_17-58-26

Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.  You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.  . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.

2016-04-20_20-49-45

TORNADO SHELTERS!  Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here.  Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here

I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

2015-12-18_21-14-12

bottomlineitgif

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
..

October 21, 2016
Friday Night –  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Autumn temperatures.  Patchy light frost possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy light frost possible in cold favored locations.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 37 to 44 degree range.
Winds:
  West and northwest at 2-4 mph.  Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  No
Sunset will be at 6:08 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:54 p.m.  Waning Gibbous.

.

October 22, 2016
Saturday:
  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.  Pleasant autumn temperatures.
What impact is expected?
 None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds:
 Southwest and west at 6-12 mph. 
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Sunrise
will be at 7:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:07 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise
will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 1:44 p.m.  Last Quarter
.
Saturday Night –
  Mostly clear.  Not quite as cold.
What impact is expected
?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 42-46  degree range.
Winds:
  Southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  No

.

October 23, 2016
Sunday:
   Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.  A little warmer. 
What impact is expected?
 None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 73-76 degree range.
Winds:
  Southwest at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph. 
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Sunrise
will be at 7:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
UV index will
be
 5-6
Moonrise
will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Sunday Night: 
Partly cloudy.  Cool.
What impact is expected
?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  No

.

October 24, 2016
Monday:
   Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
What impact is expected?
 None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 73-76 degree range.
Winds:
  North and northeast at 5-10 mph.  
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:05 p.m.
UV index will
be
 5-6
Moonrise
will be at 1:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:07 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Monday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Not as cool.
What impact is expected
?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Winds:
  Northeast winds becoming east winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  No

.

October 25, 2016
Tuesday:
   Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What impact is expected?
 None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds:
 East and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Sunrise
will be at 7:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
UV index will
be
 5-7
Moonrise
will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Tuesday Night: 
Mostly clear.  
What impact is expected
?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds:
  South and southeast at 5-10 mph.   Winds becoming more southerly overnight.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  No

.

October 26, 2016
Wednesday:
 Partly cloudy.   Warm.  Perhaps breezy.  Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
  Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 73-76 degree range.
Winds:
  South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
 Perhaps isolated.  
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise
will be at 7:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:02 p.m.
UV Index:  3-5 (depending on cloud cover)
  
Moonrise
will be at 3:21 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m.  Waning Crescent.
.
Wednesday Night: 
Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range.
Winds:
  West at 5-10 mph.   
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
  I would monitor updated forecasts. 

.
More information on the UV index.  Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

2016-10-21_8-41-50

saturdayweather

Banner Ad 3

satnightupdate

Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

2016-10-20_21-34-50

2016-09-29_19-49-38
2016-10-13_18-43-46


2015-03-20_19-08-11

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Patchy light frost possible
  2. Chilly night, but a warming trend is already in the charts
  3. Pleasant weekend
  4. Rain next week?
Friday night will deliver some of the coldest temperatures of the season, thus far.  I am forecasting upper 30’s to lower 40’s.  If the winds die down then some light frost would be possible.  Conditions are not overly favorable for widespread frost or a killing frost.
Saturday will bring high temperatures into the 60’s.  Pleasant autumn day.  A few patchy clouds.
.
Saturday night will again be chilly (but a bit warmer than Friday night) with overnight lows in the 40’s.  Mostly clear sky conditions.
.
Sunday will be warmer.  High temperatures should rise into the 70’s across most of the region.  This will be above normal.  October might be one of the warmer October’s on record.  Time will tell.
.
A passing system on Sunday will mean a few clouds from time to time.
.
Sustained cold is still not showing up in the charts.  I have been thinking mid-November for a pattern flip.  Long way off and plenty of time to monitor trends.  Perhaps colder weather for Thanksgiving?  There are a lot of signals for a colder than normal winter.
.
I am tracking another cold front for Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will once again be a possibility.  I will need to monitor the timing of the front.   There is also some debate on just how much precipitation will develop along the front.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  We could use some more rain.  Much of the area is dry.

The EC guidance indicates another chance for rain around Friday or Saturday.  Lower confidence on that part of the forecast.

How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
.
No rain in the forecast through Tuesday.  I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday night for another cold front.  Perhaps some showers or storms as it passes through the area.
.
Saturday morning low temperatures
.
satmorning

Saturday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures
.
satafternoon
.

Sunday morning low temperatures
.
.
.suntemps.
Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
.
.. sunafternoon
.
Regional Radar
 

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

2014-11-03_15-49-30

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

2014-11-24_13-38-04

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday night and Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated

Sunday and Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated

Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday:  Thunderstorms are possible.

2014-11-03_7-32-16

.
Raised temperatures a few degrees on Saturday night

whatamiconcered
.
Patchy light frost possible Friday and Saturday night.  Best chance would be over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Small risk elsewhere.


.

..2014-12-21_20-26-42

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

2015-05-28_13-49-52

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *