Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 20 and 21, 2017: Questionable forecast numbers.

Beau’s Saturday Morning Weather Update

There is a small risk for high winds as storms enter southeast Missouri tonight. The severe risk is low.

Severe weather is unlikely through Monday.

Lightning is possible tonight into Sunday night.

Highlights

1. Warm today. Becoming breezy. A few fast moving light showers.

2. Clouds thicken and lower tonight. Winds pick up and gust well into the 20’s. Rain chances ramp up, especially west of the Mississippi River.

3. We will have rain chances Sunday into Tuesday. Two distinct systems.

4. Several cold shots in the charts the next couple of weeks.

5. Frost or freeze risks next week? A couple of chances.

Forecast:

Today will feel like spring. Highs in the 70’s. Gusty south winds increasing this afternoon. Gusts this afternoon in the 15 to 20 mph range (esp MO/IL). A mix of sun and clouds. Any showers that race through the area (from south to north) will be brief.

Tonight

A cold front slowly moves out of the central United States. This front will produce a band of widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms from Texas to Iowa. You will likely see a solid band of rain on the radar to our west.

This band of showers and storms will slowly move eastward and rain chances will increase to 80% after 2 or 3 am for southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.

Let’s draw a line from the Bootheel of Missouri to Cairo, Illinois to Mt Vernon, Illinois. Along and west of that line will have the best chance of organized showers and storms during the wee hours of the morning hours. Areas to the east will have lesser chances.

The severe weather risk tonight is small. I can’t completely rule out some high winds with the storms as they first enter southeast Missouri (Poplar Bluff area). Storms will weaken with time.

Tonight you may see some severe weather watches for western Missouri and perhaps a little bit east of there.

Sunday

Forecast confidence drops a bit on Sunday. Complicated setup and I am glad this isn’t a winter storm.

The cold front will stall. This will mean the eastward progression of the solid band of showers and thunderstorms will slow. It will also weaken them.

Where it slows and weakens is the key to how much rain falls from sunrise tomorrow until the afternoon hours. This is especially true for southeast Illinois and the Pennrile area of western Kentucky.

A second system is going to develop Sunday and Sunday night to our south. This second area of low pressure is what will slow the eastward progression of the cold front.

There is little to no agreement in the model guidance as to how Sunday’s forecast pans out. That leaves it up to me to make the forecast.

These are my thoughts.

Plan on rain tomorrow. Have a plan B for outdoor activities.

I am certain that southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will be dealing with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Most likely far western Kentucky, as well. Far western Kentucky would include the far most six counties.

Southeast Illinois and the rest of western Kentucky will likely have some showers, but coverage may not be as great as areas to the west.

The heaviest rain totals tonight into Sunday afternoon will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. These areas should pick up 0.50″ to 0.90″. Thunderstorms could produce higher totals.

The far western six counties of Kentucky, southeast Illinois, and northwest Tennessee will likely pick up 0.10″ to 0.30″ from sunrise until 3 pm Sunday. Areas to the east of there perhaps less.

System number two.

A winter type storm system will develop Sunday afternoon and night to our south. This would be a classic winter storm setup for our region (if it were December, January, or February).

Obviously, it will be too warm for snow.

Rain showers and some thunderstorms will redevelop and spread north-northeast from Arkansas and Tennessee late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

This second event may cover western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southeast Illinois with rain. That is where the highest rain coverage and intensity should be.

Southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois may have rain showers from system two, as well. The coverage, however, won’t be as great as areas to the east.

Rain chances Sunday night into Monday will be greater than 70% for southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Rain chances west of there will be 60% or less.

ANY shift in the second storm systems path will completely change the forecast. Just like in winter, the storm track is key to rainfall totals Sunday night into Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday

Cooler air will filter into the region beginning Sunday afternoon and night. The colder air will be reinforced on Monday into Tuesday. As a matter of fact, temperatures on Tuesday may remain in the 50’s for daytime highs.

Frost is possible Tuesday night/Wednesday. The confidence on frost occurring is low. I will need to see if clouds clear out and winds subside. For now, I have temperatures dipping into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Adjustments may need to be made in future updates.

Even colder air arrives behind a cold front on Friday and Friday night. That could mean frost of freeze conditions by the weekend.

Rain is likely again Friday and perhaps a portion of the weekend.

As always the GFS guidance is likely too fast in moving that cold front through the area. The EC model guidance is likely too slow. I have rain chances in the Friday/Friday night forecast.

Saturday and Sunday will need to be monitored. The speed of the front is key to the weekend weather.

Much colder air is forecast to arrive behind the weekend cold front. As a matter of fact, it may be the coldest air of the season, thus far. Frost or freeze conditions will be possible.

.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
Bonus short and long range videos are available for Weather Talk subscribers.  This is in addition to the other products that you receive on a daily basis.
.
Videos are normally posted on Monday through Friday.  Typically, videos will be updated during the morning and afternoon hours.  I personally update videos during active weather.
.
A Weather Talk subscription ($3 a month) is required to view the videos.  This helps cover monthly costs (which can run between one and two thousand dollars).

Videos are posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Once there, click the Beau Video-Cast tab.    Long Range Video Update

If you believe you missed a video then you may check the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website.  You will find an archive of videos on that page.

You can also receive the videos via your Weather Talk app/text messages.  Turn text option FOUR to the on position.  The Weather Extra text option.  Sign up for the app/text messages, videos, and more at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.

This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

.

.

 

October 20, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 53 to 56    KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph increasing late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

.

October 21, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Breezy.  A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered fast moving showers possible.  I would not change Saturday activities.  Perhaps check the weather radars.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 75 to 80     IL ~ 75 to 78     KY ~ 75 to 80
Winds: Morning winds from the south at 6 to 12 mph.  Afternoon winds from the south/southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to scattered.  Highest chance will be southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.

.

October 21, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Mild.  Breezy.  A few scattered showers before midnight.  Increasing chances of showers after midnight.  A thunderstorm possible.for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Widespread rain developing west of the Mississippi River.  A few heavy downpours possible west of the Mississippi River.
Temperatures   MO ~ 60 to 64     IL ~ 60 to 64    KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds: South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways possible after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.  A small risk for a stronger storm over southeast Missouri
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70% (esp late)    SW IL ~ 60%    SE IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%   
Coverage of precipitation
: Some scattered showers before midnight.  Increasing coverage late.  Numerous showers and perhaps thunderstorms after 3 am for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

.

October 22, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Complicated forecast.  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy at times.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms along and west of a line from Jefferson County, IL south to Alexander County, Illinois and then south to the Missouri Bootheel.  Locally heavy rain possible over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Activity will spread east of the Mississippi River, but will likely weaken.  Rainfall totals up to 3 pm on Sunday should be less east of the MS River vs west.  Keep that in mind.  The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky would likely receive the least coverage vs areas further west.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 73 to 76     IL ~ 73 to 76     KY ~ 73 to 76
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning and wet roadways.  Locally heavy rain for southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for strong storms during the morning hours.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 90%    SW IL ~ 70%  SE IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Scattered to numerous east of the Mississippi River.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B.

.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain redeveloping from the south and southwest.  Rain will move north/northeast.  The track of the Sunday night system is being monitored.  Confidence on the exact track is low to medium.  The track is key to who receives additional rain from Sunday night into Monday.  Best chances will be east of the Mississippi River vs west.
Temperatures   MO ~ 50 to 55     IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusty winds possible from time to time.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 80%   
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

.

October 23, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Cooler.  Rain showers possible, especially over southern Illinois and Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66     IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous east of the MS River.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, especially Illinois and Kentucky.

.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A shower possible.
Temperatures   MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~ 45 to 50     KY ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

.

October 24, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy early in the day.  A chance for a few showers.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Colder.
Temperatures   MO ~ 38 to 44     IL ~ 38 to 44     KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

 

2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Friday night through Saturday afternoon:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday night through Monday:  Lightning is possible during this time period.  There is a low end risk for strong thunderstorms on Sunday, but confidence is low.

Tuesday through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

This is a complicated forecast.

We have two storm systems to monitor.

The first one arrives Saturday night into Sunday.  The second one arrives Sunday night into Monday night.  Both are causing forecast headaches.

Let’s look at the certainties and uncertainties.

I am certain that widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will develop west of the Mississippi River late Saturday night into Sunday.  Locally heavy rain possible.

Uncertainties arise as the band of rain moves east of the Mississippi River on Sunday morning and afternoon.  Some guidance weakens it to the point of spotty showers for southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

I am certain there will be a second system on Sunday night and Monday that will bring additional rain to at least our eastern and southeastern counties.

I am uncertain as to how far west/northwest to push that band of rain.

Heavy rain is possible west of the MS River on Saturday night/Sunday.   High confidence.

Heavy rain is possible east of the MS River Sunday night/Monday.  Low confidence.

All of this raises questions on rainfall totals from Saturday night through Monday night.

It is possible that two areas receive the most rainfall.   One being southeast Missouri and the second being portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Two distinct time periods, as well.  The first being Saturday night/Sunday morning and the second being Sunday night/Monday.

Confidence in the overall forecast rainfall amounts is low.

Let me break it down

Saturday

Clouds increase on Saturday. Quite warm with temperatures well into the 70’s. There will be enough lift and moisture to pop a couple of showers. I would not make any changes to my Saturday outdoor plans. I would suggest checking radars from time to time. Showers would be moving from the S/SW towards the N/NE

Winds may become gusty the further we push into the afternoon hours.

Saturday night and Sunday

Forecast changes may be necessary based on new data. There are now questions as to how much rain coverage there will be on Sunday across portions of the region.

On Saturday night, a cold front will push towards the region from the west. This front will be accompanied by warm and windy conditions ahead of it.  Winds may gust above 25 mph.

Moisture will stream northward. PWAT values ( a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere) will be 1.75 to 2.00″. That is a lot of moisture for October. That does not mean it will rain that much. It just means the atmosphere is juiced.

This moisture will combine with the lift from the cold front to set off widespread showers and thunderstorms from Iowa and Nebraska south into Oklahoma and Texas.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to our west over western Missouri, eastern Kansas, portions of Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas.

I am not too concerned about severe thunderstorms in our local area. The risk is small.  Instability weakens considerably over our area.  Thus, the severe risk is minimal. 

As we move through Saturday night, the band of showers and thunderstorms will push eastward. It will weaken with time. The later we move into the night, the better the rain chances for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Rain will first arrive in southeast Missouri between 12 am and 3 am. The rain will then slowly push eastward. It may eventually stall for a period of time on Sunday.

This is when the forecast becomes complicated.

**There are some questions about rain coverage on Sunday. Confidence in the forecast has decreased**

Looking at the data it appears that the band of weakening showers and thunderstorms might have some difficulty pulling east.

It is possible that the best rain coverage, through 2 PM on Sunday, will be west of the Mississippi River. Perhaps decreasing coverage and intensity as you move further east of the Mississippi River.

Two things are likely to happen.

Southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will almost certainly see rain late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

That would include areas from Randolph County south to Alexander County. From there westward stands the best chance of widespread precipitation.

The weakening band of showers and thunderstorms may begin to break up a bit as it pushes into southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. This is still a question.

A second system is likely to develop over Arkansas and Louisiana Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

This system will slow the progress of the cold front. The front will hang in our region longer.

Additional moisture will stream north and east with this second system. This will interact with the cold front.

Showers will likely increase in coverage late Sunday into Sunday night across Kentucky and Tennessee. How far west and northwest these news showers develop is questionable.

This leaves us with some question on rain chances from 8 am Sunday to 5 pm Sunday. This is especially true for southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.

If you have outdoor plans on Sunday, then I would suggest having a plan B.  Plan on rain and then check radars.

Even if the heavier rain does not spread too far east of the Mississippi River, there will at least be thick clouds and shower chances.

The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky will likely see the least rain on Sunday before 3 pm. Keep that in mind.

Rainfall totals on Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will likely be in the 0.40″ to 0.80″ range with higher totals possible. Rain totals further east of the Mississippi River (through Sunday afternoon) may be less. Perhaps in the 0.25″ to 0.50″ range.

Additional rain is likely Sunday night into Monday.

The second system will pull out of Arkansas and Louisiana on Sunday afternoon and night.  It will spread rain back northward into at least a portion of our area.

How far north and west the system tracks will be the deciding factor into rainfall totals locally.  Probabilities favor the greatest rain coverage being over western Tennessee and Kentucky.  Any shift in the storm track will change the overall forecast numbers.

Plan on widespread showers Sunday night into at least a portion of Monday.

That system will pull away by Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Any remaining clouds and showers should exit.  That will leave us with cooler temperatures for the middle of next week.

We may dip into the 30’s by Wednesday and Thursday morning.  Winds may return out of the south by Thursday.  This raises questions on frost potential.  A return to a southerly flow might negate the frost risk.  This will need to be monitored.

Another cold front is possible by Friday/Friday night.  Additional rain showers will be possible.

Let’s take a look at some forecast numbers.

What is the chance of X amount of rain falling?

Let me show you the EC guidance.  These are forecast rainfall totals.

Notice how we do have a decrease on Sunday from west to east.  A weakening band of showers and thunderstorms.  The real question is how much do they weaken.

At the very least plan on showers.

These are the EC guidance rainfall totals from 7 am on Sunday through 1 pm on Sunday.

These are the rain totals from 1 pm on Sunday through 7 pm on Sunday (according to the EC guidance)

Notice how the totals increase as the second system moves into the region Sunday evening.

The path of that second system is questionable and confidence is low.

Rain totals from 7 pm on Sunday through 1 am on Monday

Rain totals from 1 am on Monday through 7 am on Monday.  Highly dependent on the track of the second system.

The EC is bullish on heavier rain late Sunday night into Monday.  Again, highly dependent on the track of the second system.  Very little confidence on that (at least for now).

Rain totals from 7 am until 1 pm on Monday

There are major differences in model guidance as to rainfall totals Saturday night through Sunday 7 pm.

This does NOT include what might happen Sunday night/Monday.  A second system may impact our region during that time frame with additional rain.

NAM guidance

Click images to enlarge

GFS guidance

Canadian model guidance

Here is the EC rainfall total map (for the whole event)

Let me show you two time period
The first event being Saturday night (late into Sunday)

These are rain totals up to 7 pm on Sunday.  Notice heavier totals west of MS River.

Here are the totals from now through Monday.  You can see the big shift east of the MS River Sunday night into Monday.

Again, the totals are high on the EC.  The reason is because it tracks the second system further west and northwest.

The NAM guidance is throwing a monkey wrench into Sunday’s forecast.

Here is the future-cast radar from now through Monday.

Notice how the rain band on Saturday night decreases in intensity.  Weakens.  Then you will notice the 2nd system on Sunday night and Monday.  Rain overspreads the region from the southwest.

If this were winter, then this would be a massive forecast headache.  It would be a significant winter storm.  It is a testament to how difficult it is to forecast winter storms in our region.  The track of the second system is key to how much rain falls on Sunday night and Monday.  Low confidence.

Here is what the NAM shows for the future-cast radar.  This is what radar MIGHT look like this weekend.

Again, Sunday is questionable as far as rain coverage east of the Mississippi River.

Time stamp upper left.

The GFS guidance, on the other hand, brings the rain right through the area with little or no weakening.

This is the future-cast radar.  The time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

Temperature Forecast

Friday night lows

Saturday

Saturday night lows

Sunday

Sunday night lows

Dew Point Scale

Dew points control how you feel outside.  Higher dew points feel sticky.  Lower dew points make the atmosphere comfortable.

Dew Point Forecast

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Long range forecast discussion

 November outlook has been updated for subscribers.  See that under the severe weather tab on www.weathertalk.com (look for the Friday long range graphic/video link)

View the long-range discussion and videos here ~  CLICK LONG RANGE LINK

Subscribers see the long-range forecast/video on the Weather Talk page.

Subscriptions are $3 a month.  This helps cover the $1000 to $2000 monthly costs.

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

.

Are you subscribing to Weather Talk app/text messages and videos?  This is what helps support all of the data you see each day.

We now offer premium videos for the short and long-range forecasts!  These videos are produced by a team of long-range forecast experts.  They are brought to you as bonus information.  Activate text option four in order to receive these on your app or via text.

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

We offer an Apple and Android app (scroll to the bottom of this page for more information).

Were you aware that I hired a team of meteorologists for long range videos?

To learn more, click this link

http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/

.

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.

Live lightning data ~ click here

.

12345r
.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The app provides a faster way for you to receive my text messages.  ATT and Verizon are not always reliable when it comes to speed.

Some of you have asked if you can receive the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to open your app and click the settings button.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

——————————————————–

Your support helps with the following:

and

.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

awaremail

Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.

I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

Comments are closed.