Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 20, 2016: Chilly for Sunday.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts.  Your support is crucial.  The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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November 19, 2016
Saturday Night:  Mostly clear and quite cold.  Starry night.
What impact is expected
? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 18-24 degree range.  Isolated colder spots possible.
Wind Chill:  19-24
Winds:  North and northwest at 5-10 mph.  Gusty winds are a possibility before 7 pm.  Winds lessening after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

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November 20, 2016
Sunday:  Mostly sunny and cool.  Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  North and northwest at 4-8 mph with some gusts above 10 mph possible.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index:  3

Moonrise
will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m.  Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night:
  Mostly clear.  Cold with below normal temperatures.  
What impact is expected
? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 25-30 degree range.  I am struggling with the low temperatures on Sunday night.  This may need to be adjusted.  Some data indicates colder readings.
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds:  Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 21, 2016
Monday:  Mostly sunny and not as cool.  
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m.  Last Quarter.
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Monday Night:
  Mostly clear.  Perhaps some high clouds after midnight.  Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected
? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 22, 2016
Tuesday:  Increasing clouds. Breezy, at times.  Warmer.  Perhaps a few showers over southeast Missouri during the afternoon hours.  Tuesday may end up dry.  Will be watching an incoming system from the west and southwest.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (low confidence, because rain may hold off until Tuesday night)

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest at 6-12 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunrise
will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m.  Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night:
 Mostly cloudy.  Chilly showers likely.  Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest at 7-14 mph.  Gusts above 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 70%.  IL ~ 70%.  KY ~ 70% .  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Becoming widespread
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

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November 23, 2016
Wednesday:  Quite a few clouds.   Showers possible.  Perhaps most likely during the morning.  Cool.   Clearing possible during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 56-62  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West at 6-12 mph.  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40% (mostly during the morning hours)
Coverage of
precipitation?
  At least scattered.  Perhaps mainly during the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunrise
will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m.  Waning crescent. 
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Wednesday Night:
  Mostly clear.  Cool. 
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none.  Will monitor for fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Nice day anticipated. 
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 54-56  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m.  Waning crescent. 
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Thursday Night:  Increasing clouds.
What impact is expected
? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none.  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday:  Partly cloudy.  EC guidance brings a few light showers into the area.  Let’s monitor the trends.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 55-60  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m.  Waning crescent. 
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Friday Night:  Some clouds.  
What impact is expected
? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Probably none
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 26, 2016
Saturday:  Partly sunny.  Perhaps some showers.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 55-60  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunrise
will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m.  Waning crescent. 
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Saturday Night:  Some clouds.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Southwest  at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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November 27, 2016
Sunday:  Some clouds.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 50-55  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunrise
will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m.  Waning crescent. 
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Sunday Night:  Some clouds.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
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November 28, 2016
Monday:  Some clouds. A shower possible.
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 48-54  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
Sunrise
will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m.  Waning crescent. 
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Monday Night:  Some clouds.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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November 29, 2016
Tuesday:  Partly cloudy.  A shower possible.
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 50-55  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
Sunrise
will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m.  New Moon.
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Tuesday Night:  Some clouds.  Showers possible.
What impact is expected
?  
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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November 30, 2016
Wednesday:  Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
Sunrise
will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night:  Mostly clear and cool.
What impact is expected
?  
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Colder weather
  2. Another chance for rain late Tuesday and Wednesday
  3. Windy on Tuesday/Tuesday night/Wednesday
  4. Nice Thanksgiving?  Looks that way!
  5. Active long range pattern
  6. Many signals for colder than normal temperatures in December
  7. Beau’s 25 Days of Holiday Giving begins December 1st!  Watch for details.

Find me on Twitter, as well!
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Brrrr.   There was a chill in the air today.  Gasp, it actually feels like autumn.  How about that.  I didn’t think it was possible.  We have had such an amazing October and November.  Rare, to say the least.  We have consistently been above normal in the temperature department for the vast amount of both months.  Only  a few below normal temperature days.

Here is the month to date temperature anomalies.  Just look at how warm North America has been.  This is amazing from a meteorological point of view.

Click the image to enlarge.

Scale is on the right side of the page.  WELL above normal anomalies.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

This was the October anomaly map (temperatures).

Click to enlarge

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_102016

How many days of above normal temperatures has the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service received?

Here you go

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Many of you did pick up some much needed rainfall on Friday.  How much rain fell?  Here is what radar estimated for totals.

Click image for a larger view

rainfalltotals

Another map showing our northern and western counties

rainfallnorth

A warming trend begins on Monday into Tuesday.  Winds will turn out of the south and that will allow temperatures to rebound a little bit.  Nothing dramatic, but a bit milder.

Let’s take a look at the temperature anomaly maps for Monday through Wednesday.  Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 56 to 58 degrees.

Monday is a transition day.  Near normal temperatures.

sfct_anom-wxt_ov

Tuesday we pop above normal.  The number represent how many degrees above normal temperatures will be.

sfct_anom-wxt_ov-1

Wednesday morning (ahead of the front we move to well above normal temperatures)

sfct_anom-wxt_ov-2

Thanksgiving Day.  Near normal temperatures return.

sfct_anom-wxt_ov-3

It appears the pattern is becoming more active.   A parade of storm systems are in the short and long range model guidance.  This would be a significant change from what we have experienced over the last two months.  We have been in a dry spell for the last couple of months.  Severe drought continues across portions of the region.

 

It won’t be long and we will start talking about snow.  I will be posting winter storm updates on the Weather Talk site.  Please consider signing up for the Weather Talk text messaging service.  In addition to the text messages you can view more information on the web-site, as well.  For example, I will be posting winter storm updates on the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Your support helps offset the costs of my time and all of the data.  It is not uncommon for monthly costs to top $700.00.

You can sign up by visiting www.beaudodsonweather.com

Gusty winds are possible on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Here is what the GFS is showing.  These winds are being produced by the next storm system which will wind up to our north.  Tight pressure gradient.   That equals windier conditions.

sfcgust-wxt_ov-3

Speaking of a parade of storm systems.  Let’s take a look at the GFS data.  I will post a series of charts.  Each one shows a storm system that might impact our region.  The green colors represent rain and blue colors represent snow.

Don’t get too hung up on the specifics.  I just want to show you how the  pattern is evolving into a more active storm track.

The first system should arrive on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  This will be a rain maker.

Remember, you can always click the images for larger views.

This second image is the Tuesday night and Wednesday storm system.  November 22nd and 23rd.

This image is showing you the PWAT values.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  Look how the storm system pulls moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

pwat-conus

You can see another area of low pressure tracking across Iowa.  A cold front will extend from Iowa into Arkansas.  The system will push east/northeast.  This does not look like a big rain maker.  Some areas could pick up 0.25″ to 0.60″.  Let’s keep an eye on trends.  Instability appears weak.  Maybe some thunder, but severe weather is not anticipated.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_16

Here is the 7 am Wednesday morning GFS surface map.  The low continues to push east and northeast.  Snow well to our north.  A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms in our region.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_17

Finally, this is the 12 pm Wednesday map.  Most of the rain should be to our east by Wednesday afternoon.  We have several days to monitor the timing.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_18

This next map is for November 27th.  That would be next Saturday night into Sunday.  Yet another area of low pressure tracking across Missouri.  This system, at this time, appears a bit moisture starved.  Perhaps some snow well to our north and rain showers in our region.

The model guidance varies as to when this system arrives.  The EC guidance brings it into our region on Saturday night and Sunday.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_32

This next image is for Sunday, November 27th at 6 am.   Maybe some light showers in our local area.  Low confidence since this is still several days away.  Not a lot of moisture on the GFS.  The EC model guidance is a bit more bullish on that system.  We should monitor trends.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_33

This next image is for Tuesday, November 29th.   Powerful storm system showing up on the GFS.  Deep area of low pressure over northern Missouri.  A cold front trails back into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  This system has plenty of moisture to work with.  LONG way off.  Low confidence.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_41

This next image is for Wednesday, November 30th.  You can see the system has pulled into Wisconsin.  Colder air will usher in behind the cold front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_42

This next image is for Thursday, December 1st.  Another system just to our east with snow.  Again, long way off and confidence is low.

The bottom line is that the pattern appears to be moving towards a more active storm track.  Good news.  We need the rain.  Let’s hope it is true.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_45-1

This last image is for Monday, December 5th.  A winter storm showing up on the GFS to our southwest.  Long way off and confidence would be low.

Again, I am showing you these maps so that you get the general idea.  We are moving towards a more active pattern.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_52

There are many signals for a colder than normal December.  That would be when you add up the averages from the beginning of the month to the end of the month.

 

How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

Rain showers are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.  This does not look like a big rain event, but some measurable precipitation will be possible.

Scale is on the right side of the image.

NOAA is painting anywhere from 0.50″ to 0.80″ for the Tuesday night/Wednesday system.  Still a bit early for confidence on exact totals.

wpc_total_precip_ky_28

Here are two models.  The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.  These are rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday system.

GFS rainfall totals

Click image to enlarge

qpf_acc-wxt_ov

GEM rainfall totals

Click image to enlarge

qpf_acc-wxt_ov-1

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Sunday morning low temperatures
Temperatures could be a few degrees colder than shown.
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Sunday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures

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Monday morning low temperatures
Confidence is low on how cold it will be on Monday morning.  Some data shows middle 20’s.  Keep that in mind.
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Monday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday the 19th through Saturday the 26th  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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I did remove rain from the forecast for next Friday (the 25th).
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whatamiconcered

No significant concerns.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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