.
A Weather Talk subscription ($3 a month) is required to view the videos.
Videos are posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Once there, click the Beau Video-Cast tab. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you may check the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. You will find an archive of videos on that page.
You can also receive the videos via your Weather Talk app/text messages. Have text option FOUR activated. The Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the app/text messages, videos, and more at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.
.
This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. An isolated shower or storm possible, mainly over southeast Missouri
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 3, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly during the morning hours and mainly over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered (mainly southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few passing clouds, otherwise clear. Not as cool. Isolated shower chance over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~60 to 65
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will be monitoring southeast Missouri and southern Illinois for shower chances. For now, I kept them at 10% or less.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 4, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A few clouds. warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will be monitoring southeast Missouri and southern Illinois for shower chances. For now, I kept them at 10% or less.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~58 to 62
Winds: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 5, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: A few clouds. warm. Scattered thunderstorms possible, mainly over southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 84 IL ~82 to 84 KY ~ 82 to 84 TN ~ 82 to 84
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. This will mainly be from Poplar Bluff towards Mt Vernon, IL
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered (esp MO/IL).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
October 6, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Isolated shower/storm chance for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Low confidence.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~58 to 62
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning possible. Low confidence.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. The best chance may be over our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check updates and radars
.
October 7, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low confidence. The forecast hinges on the cold front. Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence. The forecast hinges on the cold front. Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~58 to 62
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars. Check updates.
.
October 8, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence. The forecast hinges on the cold front. Some guidance is faster and some slower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and updates.
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Low confidence. Some guidance delivers a stronger cold front to the area on Sunday night/Monday. I will monitor the trends in guidance.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east (low confidence). Timing of the front is key.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
.
.
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday night through Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Lightning possible Monday night/Tuesday. Again on Thursday/Thursday night. Again on Friday through Sunday. Low confidence on the weekend forecast.
Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- Warm weather over the coming days
- Drought conditions will worsen
- Use care with burning brush and fields
Short range comments
Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast. Click here for that information.
(See the long range discussion further down in this post)
You might want to listen in on this presentation
.
The main weather story, for the week ahead, will be the warm temperatures. The second story will be the chances for rain.
Tonight through Tuesday night
A weak disturbance will pass through the region tonight and on Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have been added to the forecast. The best chances will be Monday night and Tuesday morning over southeast Missouri. The majority of the area will remain dry.
Many areas will receive no measurable rain. A few areas will pick up a trace to 0.15″. If thunderstorms develop, then they could produce a few heavier totals. Again, many areas will remain dry.
The high resolution HRRR guidance shows very little in the way of rainfall through 6 am Tuesday.
Rainfall totals from that particular model
Here is the 3K high resolution NAM model guidance. This graphic is showing you how much rain might fall. One models opinion.
I would ignore the specifics on this graphic. The general idea is that the vast majority of the region will remain dry. A few areas may pick up a shower or thunderstorm tonight and on Tuesday.
Better chances to our west.
Temperatures over the coming days will rise into the lower 80’s during the afternoon hours and settle into the 60’s overnight.
Gusty south/southeast winds will be with us through much of the week.
Here is the wind gust map for Monday night. Some gusts into the twenties.
See long range discussion below
Temperature Forecast
Monday night low temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Tuesday night low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Wednesday night low temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Tuesday dew points
A bit more humid.
Wednesday dew points
Thursday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
Wednesday through Sunday
The main weather story will continue to be the warm temperatures. Temperatures will remain well above normal through at least Saturday. Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 74 to 78.
A weak disturbance will approach our region by Thursday/Thursday night. We may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop. The best chance will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Friday’s forecast is questionable. Some of the guidance attempts to bring a weak front into the region. IF this does happen then a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible. For now, I went with low end precipitation chances.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms may hold off until the weekend.
A stronger cold front is forecast to pass through our region on Saturday or Sunday. Guidance is all over the place with timing.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front is forecast to weaken as it moves through our local area. Not what many want to hear. Many of us could use some rain.
Here is the GFS guidance. One model package.
The green represents rain.
7 AM on Saturday
You can see the front to our west. It is moving east. Again, this is one models opinion.
Here is the same model at 1 pm
Other model guidance holds the front off until Saturday night and Sunday. I will be monitoring trends.
The GFS tends to be too fast with cold fronts. The EC guidance tends to be a tad too slow. Somewhere in the middle might be the truth. If that is the case then the cold front would arrives Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Are you subscribing to Weather Talk app/text messages and videos? This is what helps support all of the data you see each day.
We now offer premium videos for the short and long range forecasts! These videos are produced by a team of long range forecast experts. They are brought to you as bonus information. Activate text option four in order to receive these on your app or via text.
Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
We offer an Apple and Android app (scroll to the bottom of this page for more information).
Were you aware that I hired a team of meteorologists for long range videos?
To learn more, click this link
http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/
.
We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The app provides a faster way for you to receive my text messages. ATT and Verizon are not always reliable when it comes to speed.
Some of you have asked if you can receive the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to open your app and click the settings button. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
——————————————————–
Your support helps with the following:
and
.
Whom do you trust for your weather information?
I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history. This was in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. You need a trusted source for information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.
I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
