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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 18, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible. Fog will be thicker near lakes and rivers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
Winds: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 19, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 76 to 78
Winds: Southerly at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Southerly winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 20, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph increasing late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 21, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Lower confidence on cloud cover for Saturday. A chance for showers (monitor updates). Pleasant. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered. Greatest coverage might end up over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Saturay Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Breezy. A few scattered showers before midnight. Increasing chances of showers after midnight. Timing of the front is still questionable.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early. Increasing coverage late at night. Timing of the front is questionable. Increasing coverage after 3 am.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 22, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. An 80% chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 73 to 76 IL ~ 73 to 76 KY ~ 73 to 76
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with rain showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: West and northwest winds 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming scattered and then ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the night.
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October 23, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A shower possible. Lower confidence on Monday’s forecast. I will be monitoring a storm system to our south and east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates .
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Thursday school bus stop forecast
Morning
Afternoon
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night through next Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday night into Sunday night. Lightning is the main concern.
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Highlights
- Great weather over the next couple of days
- Weekend cold front
- Cooler next week
The week ahead.
Quiet weather will be with us through Saturday. The weather becomes unsettled late Saturday night into Sunday.
High pressure has kept our region cool over the last few days. It is moving off to the east. That will mean a shift in winds. Winds will become southerly. This will mean a warming trend.
We might see an increase in clouds on Friday and Saturday. Guidance is mixed on this topic. I did include some mention of clouds in my forecast update. The amount of cloud coverage is the question.
We may have to deal with showers on Saturday. At one time it appeared that dry weather would rule, not so sure about that
Highs on Thursday into Saturday will range from 75 to 80 degrees. That is above the seasonal norms of 72 degrees (for high temperatures).
A cold front will arrive on Sunday.
A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will accompany the front. Rainfall totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ will be possible. Guidance is showing heavier totals, but for now I went conservative.
We do still need rain over portions of the area. Granted, a lot of rain fell over the last weeks (for some of you).
The September anomalies were high.
Here is the percent of normal precipitation for September. We will have to wait until the end of the month for the official October map.
September was obviously quite dry for many areas.
One fly in the forecast ointment is the Canadian model guidance. It is developing a stronger area of low pressure to our south on Sunday night and Monday. If this were January we would be talking about a major winter storm. It isn’t January!
If that system does form, then it could mean heavier rain totals. It would also mean rain lingering into Monday night. For now, I discounted the Canadian model, but I am closely watching trends.
Other models show this system, but not as strong and not as developed.
See the long range discussion/links further down in this post.
OCTOBER
If you thought October has been warm, then you would be correct.
Check out these stats. Each day in orange is an above normal temperature day. Each day in blue is a below normal temperature day. Obviously, we have had a very warm October. The numbers represent how many degrees above normal that day was.
These are some LARGE anomalies.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 to 74 degrees. Normal low temperatures are in the middle 40’s.
I will update that chart later this week.
Temperature Forecast
Wednesday night low temperature
Thursday high temperature
Thursday low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Friday night low temperature
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Thursday dew points
Friday dew points
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
Dry weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday.
We may see colder temperatures next week with several days below normal.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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