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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 15, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming clear over much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Clouds may linger longer over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky, especially the further east you travel. Much cooler than recent nights. Patchy fog possible, especially over northern sections of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. At this time, frost appears unlikely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
Winds: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph turning calm late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If fog forms, then lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 16, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. The best chance for sunshine will be southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Some clouds for the rest of southern Illinois into western Kentucky. We will have to see how quick they move out. Cool temperatures. Fallish temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms (early in the morning)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog. It appears that widespread frost is unlikely, but I will monitor the trends for overnight lows. There is a small risk that temperatures might be colder. Dew points will be quite low. If frost were to occur, it would most likely be over southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky (closer to the Evansville area).
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms. Small risk of frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 17, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Winds becoming southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 18, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Winds becoming southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 19, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~ 48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 20, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 73 to 76 IL ~ 73 to 76 KY ~ 73 to 76
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night through next Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Highlights
- Beautiful week of weather ahead of us
- Will monitor light frost risk Monday night (southern IL and northwest KY)
- Another cold front possible next Sunday
There was an earthquake this morning in northeast Arkansas. The quake measured 3.7.
The week ahead.
Doesn’t this just speak for itself?
Rain fell across portions of the region on Saturday night and Sunday morning. For the most part, rain totals were less than 0.30″. A few spots received higher totals. The highest totals were over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
The rain had ended by Sunday afternoon and that left us with cooler temperatures. Breezy conditions, as well.
The weather for the week ahead will be quiet.
I will need to monitor the fog risk each night.
Widespread frost appears unlikely through Saturday. Patchy light frost can’t be ruled out Monday night over portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Temperatures could dip into the upper 30’s. For the most part, temperatures will range from 38 to 44 degrees by Tuesday morning.
Relative humidity levels will be low this week. Be careful with burning outdoor debris, fields, or brush. Winds will be fairly light through the week. That will at least keep the fire risk lower.
Temperature Forecast
Sunday night low temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Monday night low temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Tuesday night low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Wednesday low temperatures
Dewpoint scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Monday dew points
Tuesday dew points
Wednesday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
I will be monitoring another cold front for next Sunday. Perhaps a band of showers along the front. Several days to monitor that potential.
Overall, a quiet weather pattern for the next seven days.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
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