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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 14, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Windy. Warmer ahead of the front and then falling temperatures behind the front. A band of showers approaching from the north and west. This will be along an incoming cold front. Rain should hold off until after midnight. Rain totals, if any, will be light. Temperatures may fall behind the front after 4 am (esp southern IL)
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Southerly winds at 8 to 16 mph. Winds will start to turn more southwest and eventually west late. Winds becoming gusty after 11 pm. Wind gusting above 30 mph possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways after midnight. Small risk for lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Odds favor little or no lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% (late) IL ~ 70% (late) KY ~ 60% towards morning
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. A band of rain should develop to our north and west late Saturday night. It will be moving south and southeast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 15, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front. Clouds will decrease through the day from the northwest towards the southeast. It will be turning cooler with breezy conditions. Morning showers likely. Rain totals from nothing to perhaps 0.25″. Many areas may receive little in the way of measurable rainfall.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 temperatures may not rise much IL ~ 60 to 65 temperatures may hold steady through the day. Cool. KY ~ 66 to 74 early in the day and then falling into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Winds: Winds west/northwest becoming north/northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Early morning wet roadways. Gusty morning winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% (before 10 am) IL ~ 60% (before 12 pm) KY ~ 70% (before 1 pm)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous along an incoming cold front. A band of rain possible. Rain will exit early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Much cooler than recent nights. Patchy fog possible. At this time, frost appears unlikely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
Winds: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph turning calm late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If fog forms, then lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 16, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool temperatures. Fallish temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds: North winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms (early in the morning)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog. It appears that widespread frost is unlikely, but I will monitor the trends for overnight lows. There is a small risk that temperatures might be colder. Dew points will be quite low. If frost were to occur, it would most likely be over southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky (closer to the Evansville area).
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms. Small risk of frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 17, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Winds becoming southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night through next Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning appears unlikely. Small risk for lightning Saturday night (late) and early Sunday morning.
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Highlights
- Cold front moves through Saturday night/Sunday morning
- Windy Saturday night
- A band of showers late Saturday night/Sunday morning
- Much cooler Sunday through Wednesday
We have a cold front approaching the region. The front will arrive late Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Gusty winds will accompany the cold front. We will also have a band of showers along and behind the front. There is a small risk for lightning.
Rain totals will be light. I am forecasting 0.00″ to 0.25″. Some areas may receive little or no rainfall.
Here is the NAM future-cast radar for tonight and Sunday morning.
1 AM Sunday morning. A band of rain to our north and west. It is moving south and east. It will weaken with time.
4 AM future-cast radar. Rain moving into our region. Light rain.
7 AM future-cast radar. Rain moving through the area. A few bands of mostly light rain.
10 AM Sunday future-cast radar. What radar might look like.
1 PM Sunday future-cast radar. Rain has moved off to the east and southeast. Perhaps some remaining clouds.
The front will also help produce wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. Peak winds will be between 10 pm and 7 am on Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Here is the wind gust map for late Saturday night. Notice the higher gusts to our north. I can’t rule out gusts above 30 mph locally.
Winds on Sunday will gust in the 10 to 20 mph range. Winds will decrease as we move further into the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures on Sunday may hold steady or even fall. Some areas may be in the 50’s during the afternoon hours. Most likely that would be across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Chilly temperatures Sunday night. Lows will range from 40 to 46 degrees. Monday night lows could dip into the upper 30’s, especially over southern Illinois.
Light frost can’t be completely ruled out over northern portions of the area. That would mean Carbondale northward. The overall frost risk is low, but not zero.
Check out this animation. This shows you temperatures. You can certainly see the front sweeping through the area.
NAM rainfall forecast. The front will produce heavier rains to our north and west. Light totals for our local area.
Temperature Forecast
Saturday night low temperatures
Notice the spike in temperatures ahead of the cold front.
Sunday high temperatures
Cooler behind our departing cold front.
Sunday night low temperatures
Cooler behind the cold front. The NAM model has trended a little colder. I am monitoring the light frost risk. For now, I stuck with lows in the 38 to 45 degree range. Winds will be light.
It may be cooler on Monday night as the area of high pressure is directly overhead. Again, I will monitor the frost potential.
Here is the NAM model guidance lows for Monday morning. You can see that it is showing some 30’s.
Monday high temperatures
Dewpoint scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Sunday dew points
Monday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
Dry weather Monday through Friday of next week. I am monitoring a possible cold front towards the end of next week. Low confidence.
GFS model guidance does show a cold front next Saturday night/Sunday. A band of showers and possibly thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Since this is in the long range, confidence levels are low.
EC model also shows the potential for a cold front.
Here is the GFS model guidance for next Sunday (October 22nd). Colors represent rain totals. WAY out there for details. I am just showing you the potential for another cold front.
Temperatures will warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s.
Normal high temperatures are around 72 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 46 degrees.
I am monitoring the potential for a pattern shift towards months end. That could mean colder temperatures and frost. Still a bit early for confidence levels to be high.
Trends are pointing towards a colder than normal November. Low confidence this far out.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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