October 14, 2017
Highlights
1. WELL above normal temps today. Highs middle 80’s (some warmer)
2. Cold front tonight with some late night showers.
3. Scattered showers Sunday morning.
4. Much cooler Sunday into Wednesday.
5. Small risk of upper 30’s on Monday night. Frost risk is low for most of us. I can’t rule out light frost over our far northern counties (closer to Mt Vernon). I will monitor trends.
Severe weather is not anticipated through next Thursday.
Lightning is unlikely through next Thursday. There is a small risk for lightning late tonight and early Sunday morning.
Forecast
I expect quite a bit of sunshine today with high temperatures well into the 80’s. This will be well above the seasonal norms of 74 to 76 degrees.
Winds will be fairly light this morning, but will increase from the south at 6 to 12 mph this afternoon. Higher gusts possible.
A slight moderating trend will occur on Tuesday into Friday. Perhaps we will move back into the 70’s for daytime highs.
This front will be accompanied by gusty winds, clouds, and a band of weakening showers.
Winds may gust above 25 mph tonight into Sunday morning.
This system is unlikely to produce much in the way of substantial rainfall.
Rainfall totalls from 0.00″ to 0.25″ are anticipated.
Rain will end from northwest to southeast on Sunday morning. That means western Kentucky would be the last to see the rain exit. Again, don’t expect a lot of rain from this event.
It will turn much cooler behind the cold front. Temperatures on Sunday may not move above 70 degrees. Expect mostly 60’s.
It will be quite chilly on Sunday night and Monday night. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.
At this time, widespread frost seems unlikely. I will be monitoring trends. I can’t completely rule out light frost for portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
The coldest night will likely be Monday night. This is when the high pressure center will be overhead.
Upper 30’s are certainly possible over northern portions of southern Illinois.
Patchy fog is also possible Sunday and Monday night.
A slight moderating trend willl occur on Tuesday into Friday. Perhaps we will move back into the 70’s forr daytime highs.
Dry weather is likely Monday through Friday.
We may have to deal with increased fire danger as relative humidity levels will be quite low.
We may see another cold front next Saturday or Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms would be possible along the front. Timing is questionable. I will monitor trends.
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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 13, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Pleasant. Patchy fog possible late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62
Winds: Southerly winds from 0 to 5 mph. Light winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 14, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Very warm for October. Some afternoon clouds possible. Increasing winds during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86 IL ~ 84 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 86
Winds: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds may increase late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Windy. Warmer. A band of showers approaching from the north and west. This will be along an incoming cold front. Rain should hold off until after midnight. Rain totals, if any, will be light. Temperatures may fall behind the front after 4 am (esp southern IL)
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Southerly winds at 8 to 16 mph. Winds will start to turn more southwest and eventually west late. Winds becoming gusty after 11 pm. Wind gusting above 30 mph possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways after midnight. Small risk for lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Odds favor little or no lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% (late) IL ~ 60% (late) KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. A band of rain should develop to our north and west late Saturday night. It will be moving south and southeast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 15, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds. Clouds will decrease through the day from the northwest towards the southeast. It will be turning cooler with breezy conditions. Morning showers likely. Rain totals from nothing to perhaps 0.25″. Many areas may receive little in the way of measurable rainfall.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 74
Winds: Winds west/northwest becoming north/northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Early morning wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% (before 9 am) IL ~ 60% (before 11 am) KY ~ 60% (before 1 pm)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous along an incoming cold front. A band of rain possible. Rain will exit early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Much cooler than recent nights. Patchy fog possible. At this time, frost appears unlikely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
Winds: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph turning calm late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If fog forms, then lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 16, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool temperatures. Fallish temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds: North winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms (early in the morning)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog. It appears that frost is unlikely, but I will monitor the trends for overnight lows. There is a small risk that temperatures might be colder. Dew points will be quite low. If frost were to occur, it would most likely be over southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky (closer to the Evansville area).
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms. Small risk of frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 17, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Winds becoming southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday night through next Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning appears unlikely. Small risk for lightning Saturday night (late).
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Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- Gusty winds and warm for your Saturday
- Cold front Saturday night
- Light rain along the front
- Much cooler Sunday into Monday night
Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast. Click here for that information.
See the long-range discussion further down in this post.
As many of you know, NOAA and NASA launched a new weather satellite last year. This is GOES 16.
A new product of this satellite is nighttime visible satellite imagery. In the past, we could only view the visible satellite data during daylight hours. Now we can view it at night.
You can even see street lights!
Here was the Friday morning satellite image. You can see fog over southeast Missouri. Clouds over portions of the area. The lights are a static image base map. Not real time.
Our weekend weather will be a mixed bag. Not snow or ice. Wrong kind of mixed bag. More like a trick or treat mixed bag.
We start off warm on Saturday with highs well into the 80’s. This represents 10+ degrees above normal. Normal high temperatures are around 76 degrees.
Temperature anomaly map for 10 am on Saturday. This map shows you how many degrees above normal it will be at 10 am.
Toasty for October!
Winds will begin to pick up as we move through the day on Saturday. By afternoon winds may gust above 15 mph.Gusty winds Saturday night and Sunday. We should have gusts above 20 mph during both time periods.
Gusty winds Saturday night and Sunday. We should have gusts above 20 mph during both time periods.
A cold front moves through the region on Saturday night and Sunday morning. A band of light showers may accompany the front. Rainfall totals from 0.00″ to 0.25″ are anticipated. Many areas may not receive much in the way of measurable rainfall.
Here are three models and their rain totals.
NAM model
GFS model
Canadian model
Slim pickings.
Sunday and Monday.
Much cooler air arrives on Sunday. Our 80’s will be replaced by 60’s. Brrr? Well, maybe not brrr! Cooler, either way.
Gusty winds will make it feel like it is a bit cooler. Keep that in mind.
The pick of the day, for this weekend, will be Saturday.
The front pushes out early in the day on Sunday. That will leave us with clearing sky conditions.
Dry Sunday night with chilly temperatures. You can expect lows from 38 to 44 degrees. The frost risk appears low, but I am monitoring trends.
See the long range further down in this update.
Temperature Forecast
Friday night low temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Saturday night low temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Cooler behind our departing cold front.
Sunday night low temperatures
Cooler behind the cold front. The NAM model has trended a little colder. I am monitoring the light frost risk. For now, I stuck with lows being 38 to 44 degrees. Winds will be light. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Monday high temperatures
Dewpoint scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Monday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
Dry weather Monday through Thursday of next week. I am monitoring a possible cold front towards the end of next week. Low confidence.
GFS model guidance does show a cold front next Saturday night/Sunday. A band of showers and possibly thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Since this is in the long range, confidence levels are low.
Here is the GFS model guidance for next Sunday (October 22nd). Colors represent rain totals. WAY out there for details. I am just showing you the potential for another cold front.
Temperatures will warm on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will be near normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70’s.
Normal high temperatures are around 72 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 46 degrees.
I am monitoring the potential for a pattern shift towards months end. That could mean colder temperatures and frost. Still a bit early for confidence levels to be high.
Trends are pointing towards a colder than normal November. Low confidence this far out.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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