Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Daily WeatherTalk schedule

Click schedule for a larger view. Keep in mind, during active weather this schedule will change. There will be additional updates outside of what has been posted here.

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

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October 13, 2018
Saturday forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Chilly.  More clouds than not.  Scattered showers possible as we move through the late afternoon hours across southeast Missouri and then spreading east and northeast with time.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 52 to 56       KY ~ 53 to 56     TN ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  before 4 PM increasing to 40% after 4 PM    IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most of the area will remain dry into the afternoon hours.  Rain showers will move into southeast Missouri during the late afternoon/evening hours and then begin spreading east and northeast late this afternoon and evening.
Wind: Northeast wind becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none for most areas.  Wet roads possible late in the day over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars later this afternoon
UV Index: 2  to 4 Low to moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Rain developing.   Thunder possible.  Rain may be moderate at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52       IL ~ 46 to 52        KY ~ 48 to 54       TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 100%     IL ~ 90%     KY ~ 90%     TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Becoming widespread
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset: 6:21 PM
Moonrise:  11:30 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:44 PM

October 14, 2018
Sunday forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Rain mostly before 1 PM.  Scattered showers after 1 PM
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58       KY ~ 62 to 66    TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% before 1 PM     IL ~ 80% before 1 PM     KY ~ 80% before 1 PM     TN ~ 80% before 1 PM all areas will be 40% after 1 PM
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread early in the day.  Rain diminishing during the late morning and afternoon.
Wind:  East/northeast wind at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1 to 3  Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45      IL ~ 45 to 50      KY ~ 46 to 52      TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: North at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Low risk of lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 6:19 PM
Moonrise:  12:26 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:29 PM

October 15, 2018
Monday forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  A chance of rain showers.  Chilly temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50    IL ~ 46 to 52       KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 60%     KY ~ 70%     TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps widespread
Wind:  North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 1 to 3  Low
Sunrise: 7:03 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy early with some rain showers.  Clouds may clear late.  Turning colder.  We will need to monitor the frost chances.  This will be highly dependent on rain and clouds departing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38      IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40      TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered early
Frost Risk:  Frost possible Monday and Tuesday night.  Monitor updates.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph becoming variable at 3 to 6
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of frost.  Those with sensitive outdoor plants will want to monitor the frost risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 6:18 PM
Moonrise:  1:17 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:18 PM

October 16, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 52 to 56       KY ~ 54 to 56     TN ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.  I will be monitoring the risk of frost.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42      IL ~ 36 to 42       KY ~  36 to 42      TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk: Medium risk
Wind: West at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the risk of frost.  Those with sensitive outdoor plants will want to monitor the frost risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 6:17 PM
Moonrise:  2:04 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

October 17, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 62   IL ~ 60 to 62       KY ~ 60 to 64      TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Frost possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 42      IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 38 to 42      TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk: Medium.
Wind: North wind at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost.  Those with sensitive outdoor plants will want to monitor the frost risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 6:15 PM
Moonrise:  2:46 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:10 AM

October 18, 2018
Thursday forecast: Mosty sunny.  Milder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65   IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65     TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cool.  A few clouds possible late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44      IL ~ 40 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 44      TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk:  None anticipated
Wind: East wind at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:14 PM
Moonrise:  3:24 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:01 AM

I am monitoring rain chances Friday and Friday night.

Monitoring the 20th through 23rd for a cold front

Monitoring Halloween (around) for another cold front

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.   Isolated lightning risk Saturday night into Monday.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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1.  Weekend rain update
2.  Frost update

A widespread rain event is developing for the region.

Rain will spread into southeast Missouri late this afternoon and evening.  The rain will continue to move east/northeast through the overnight hours.

Expect rain over almost the entire region tonight into Sunday.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible.

There could be locally heavy rain from time to time.  Generally, rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.5″ are possible.  Locally higher totals are possible.

Severe weather is not anticipated.

It will remain cool through next week.

Frost chances will need to be monitored Monday night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday night.

Monday night’s frost chances will be highly dependent on clouds and precipitation exiting.  If you have sensitive outside plants, then you will want to monitor updates.

Here is what the Hrrr model is showing for rainfall totals from now through Sunday at 7 AM.  Additional rain is possible after this time.

Hrrr is one of many models.  Most of the models show similar end results.  There are differences on where the heaviest band of rain will fall.

Most of the models show the heaviest rain from the Poplar Bluff, Missouri, area into extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Time-stamp upper left.

Click images to enlarge them.

Here is the Hrrr model guidance future-cast radar.

This will take us into early Sunday morning (2 AM)

Here is the future-cast radar from the  NAM 3K model.

Time-stamp upper left.

Click images to enlarge them.