Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 13, 2016: A mixed bag of weather

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

October 12, 2016
Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Precipitation should end late Wednesday night from west to east.  Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″ will be possible.  The heavier totals would likely be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 range
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north and northwest at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 70% .  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous.
Is severe weather expected?  No, but a few storms could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars.  Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 6:20 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.

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October 13, 2016
Thursday:
  Morning clouds giving way to afternoon sun.  Cooler.  A chance for a shower before 8 am.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.   Gusty.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Is severe weather expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:19 p.m.
UV index will be 5-6.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:56   Waxing Gibbous.
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy early and then increasing clouds late.  A chance for a late night shower over southeast Missouri.  Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways late at night.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 44-48 range
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps isolated.  Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 14, 2016
Friday:
  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (especially southern counties).  There remains some question marks on Friday’s forecast.  Best rain chances will be the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky.  
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 64-72 degree range.  Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation.
Winds:  East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph. 

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40% (mainly southern).  IL ~ 40% (mainly far southern Illinois).  KY ~ 50% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (best coverage over the southern half of our region)
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Some rain will be possible.  I would not cancel plans, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.  Perhaps the best chance of rain will be over far southern Missouri into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:17 p.m.
UV index will be 1-3.
Moonrise will be at 5:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:04  Waxing Gibbous.
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Friday Night – Mostly cloudy.  A few lingering showers possible over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.  Cool.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways.  Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds:  Southeast winds becoming south winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered early and then ending from southwest to northeast.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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October 15, 2016
Saturday:
  Partly sunny.  Isolated shower chance before 9 am (over western Kentucky).  Warmer.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8.  Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:13 a.m.   Full moon.
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Saturday Night – A few evening clouds.  Increasing clouds after midnight over our northern counties in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm after 1 am over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.  I will be monitoring rain to our north.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds:  South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 16, 2016
Sunday:
  A mix of sun and clouds.  A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.  Smaller chances as you move southward in the region.  
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 76-85 degree range.  Cooler north and warmer south.  Clouds could keep some areas in the middle to upper 70’s.  That would probably be from Farmington, MO towards Carmi, IL (northward).
Winds:  South winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusts well above 20 mph possible.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 a.m.
UV index will be 3-6.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m.  Waning Gibbous.
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Sunday Night –  Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 17, 2016
Monday:
  Partly sunny.  Very warm with near record highs.
What impact is expected?  None
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.  Gusty, at times.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:13 a.m.
UV index will be 6-8.
Moonrise will be at 7:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:37 a.m.  Waning Gibbous.
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Monday Night – Mostly clear sky conditions.
What impact is expected?  None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 18, 2016
Tuesday:
  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 10-20 mph. 

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  Most likely  none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:06 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:12 a.m.
UV index will be 5-7.
Moonrise will be at 8:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m.  Waning Gibbous.
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Tuesday Night –   Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming west at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 19, 2016
Wednesday:
  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Breezy.  A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning (low confidence).
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds:  Southwest at 7-14 mph.  Gusty winds.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps isolated.  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:11 a.m.
UV index will be 2-4.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m.  Waning Gibbous.
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Wednesday Night – Some clouds.  Mild.  A thunderstorm will be possible.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps isolated to scattered.  Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.  Cooler air
  2.  I am monitoring three additional rain chances
  3.  Seasonal temperatures

Showers and thunderstorms developed over Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to make their way across our region on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  Lightning is the main concern.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A couple of storms could produce gusty winds.

THURSDAY:

The rain should come to an end by Thursday morning.  A few showers might remain over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky before 8 am.  Thursday will deliver cooler temperatures with highs only in the 60’s.  Autumn air.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY:

We will see some increase in clouds late Thursday night into Friday morning.  Another system will approach our area from the southwest.  This could trigger some additional rain showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder) on Friday morning and afternoon.  Rain chances should end by Friday evening and night.  Just a small chance for remaining showers into Saturday morning.

This is what the GFS model guidance is showing for rainfall totals on Friday.  Low confidence on the exact placement of Friday’s rain.  I am leaning better chances the southern half of the region vs the northern half.

This covers Friday and Friday night.  Again, this is one model’s opinion.  Other data keeps the better rain chances over southern Missouri into western Tennessee.

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Here is what the NAM model guidance is showing for Friday’s rainfall totals.  Note there are some differences.  What is similar is that the southern half of the region has a better chance for precipitation than the northern half of the area.  Better rain chances south vs north.

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Temperatures on Friday will be cool.  Cloud cover will help keep temperatures below normal.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

The weekend weather will be a mixed bag.  Confidence is medium to high for Saturday and low to medium for Sunday.

Saturday will deliver a mix of sun and clouds.  I can’t rule out a shower, but believe most of the area remains rain free.  Temperatures will be mild with highs mostly in the 76-82 degree range for Saturday and the same for Sunday.

Sunday will need to be monitored for a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  Confidence isn’t all that great on how the Sunday forecast unfolds.  A system passing to our north will help generate at least a chance for scattered precipitation in our local area.  Let’s monitor the Sunday forecast.  Adjustments are certainly possible.  I will cap rain chances at 40% for Sunday.

The best chances for rain on Sunday will probably be from Farmington, Missouri into the Mt Vernon, Illinois area.  In other words, our northern counties stand the best chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  There will still be shower and storm chances elsewhere, just not as high.

Here is what the GFS guidance is showing for Sunday’s rainfall totals.  These are 24 hour rainfall totals.  You can see how the GFS model is handling the rain potential.

Again, not all data agrees with this.  Keep that in mind.  This is what the GFS believes will happen.  It is possible that rain chances on Sunday will be highest over our northern counties vs our southern counties.

qpf_024h-wxt_ov-1

 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

Monday should be dry.

I am monitoring another cold front for Tuesday.  Guidance is all over the place with that front, as well.  There are major differences in all of the guidance packages.  Some of the guidance indicates a chance for strong thunderstorms.  Other data sets indicate that the rain chances will be low.  I am not overly confident, just yet, on how Tuesday unfolds.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here


How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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I am monitoring three additional rain chances over the coming seven day period.  There is quite a bit of disagreement on placement of the better rain chances/totals.

The graphics below do not show the Wednesday night rain chances.  Wednesday night rain totals will most likely range from 0.25″ to 0.50″.  Locally heavier in storms.  Some areas may not receive those amounts, as well.

The graphic below is the official NOAA rainfall total forecast for Friday.  Keep in mind, this might shift around a bit.  Some of the guidance brings decent rain into far southern Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee.  The WPC is taking the southern track for that system.  That make happen, however, not all the guidance agrees on placement.

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This next graphic is the Sunday system.  NOAA takes most of the rain to our north on Sunday.  Again, not all guidance agrees with placement.

sundayrains

This next graphic is the Tuesday rain event.  WPCC/NOAA keeps most of the rain to our north.  This will need to be monitored.  You can see they paint some light totals in our area (not much).  Still some time for adjustments.  Confidence is low.

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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
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Friday morning low temperatures.

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Friday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm.
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Regional Radar
 

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Wednesday night:  A few thunderstorms are possible.  Organized severe weather is unlikely.  A few storms could, however, produce gusty winds.

Thursday and Thursday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday and Friday night:  A few thunderstorms are possible.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday and Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.

Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated

Tuesday:  I am monitoring another cold front for Tuesday.  I can’t rule out thunderstorms.  Confidence, however, is low.

 

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No major changes

 

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No major concerns.  

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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