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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 11, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Patchy dense fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 54 IL ~ 52 to 54 KY ~ 52 to 54
Winds: Northwest winds at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog with lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 12, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds. Clouds may thin during the afternoon from west to east. If clouds are thicker, then temperatures will remain cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 tp 74 IL ~66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 52 to 55
Winds: Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog with lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 13, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph. Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62
Winds: Southerly winds at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 14, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88
Winds: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds late. A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms approaching from the north and west. This will be along an incoming cold front. Rain should hold off until after midnight.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph. Winds may start to turn more southwest and eventually west late. Winds may become gusty after 11 pm. Wind gusting above 20 mph possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways after midnight. Perhaps lightning (SE MO/south IL)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% (late) IL ~ 40% (late) KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. A band of rain should be on radar to our north and west late Saturday night. It will be moving south and southeast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 15, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A period of clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures will be cooler if the front moves through faster.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 (cooler if the front moves through earlier) IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered along an incoming cold front. A band of rain possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing sky conditions. Cooler. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
Winds: Winds becoming north and northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps none. Wet roadways early, but believe most of the shower activity will have ended. If fog forms, then lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: If any showers remain, they will be coming to an end
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 16, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A few clouds. Much cooler. Fallish temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms (early in the morning)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I will be monitoring Sunday/Monday for a cold front. Perhaps a few storms along the front. Severe weather appears unlikely.
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Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- Nice through Saturday
- Another cold front on Sunday/Monday
Short range comments
Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast. Click here for that information.
See the long-range discussion further down in this post.
Temperatures today were cooler than anticipated, because of thick clouds. Many areas did not rise above the upper 50’s. It actually felt like fall outside.
Here was the 2 PM Wednesday temperature map
Looking ahead into the weekend
Quiet weather through Saturday. It will be a little cooler on Thursday vs Friday.
We will have to deal with clouds on Thursday. Perhaps some clearing as the day wears on. Clearing would move in from the southwest and west.
Temperatures will head back towards 80 degrees on Friday and in the 80’s on Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front will move into the region on Sunday. A band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. At this time, the severe weather threat appears to be low. Monitor updates.
Temperature Forecast
Wednesday night low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Thursday night low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Friday night low temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Saturday night low temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Temperatures may be warmer on Sunday. This will depend on the speed of the cold front.
Sunday night low temperatures
Cooler behind the cold front.
Dewpoint scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Thursday dew points
Friday dew points
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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