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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Friday night – Evening showers ending. Decreasing clouds. Partly cloudy. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 5 pm – mostly eastern and southeastern counties
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Perhaps some puffy cumulus clouds. Cooler temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph. Winds becoming variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 70’s.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty towards morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Columbus Day – Monday – Partly sunny and pleasant. Windy, at times. Small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant. Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold front moving off the east this evening
2. A cool start to the weekend
3. Small warming trend on Sunday and Monday
4. October is turning out to be warm, thus far
5. Mostly dry weather into next week
You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below). That includes the frost forecast.
A cold front advanced through the region on Friday. This front will push off to the east during the overnight hours on Friday and by Saturday morning will be well away from our local counties.
Rainfall ranged from 0.00″ in some counties to near 1″ around Fulton County, Kentucky. The Kentucky/Tennessee border counties did quite well with this system. They had the most rain as precipitation lined out from west to east. Thus, repeating cells moved over the same areas.
Here are the radar estimates rainfall totals as of mid-afternoon on Friday. Scale is on the left. Click graphic for a larger view.
Our recent warm temperatures will be replaced with cooler air by Saturday morning into Sunday. High temperatures may not get out of the 60’s on Saturday. And, that would be after starting out mostly in the 40’s and lower 50’s.
We will have a slow warming trend on Sunday into next week. As a matter of fact, temperatures might once again approach 80 degrees by Monday afternoon.
Let’s look at the daily high temperature map for Saturday through Monday. Nice weekend for October!
Saturday morning lows will dip into the 40’s. Mostly in the 50’s on Sunday morning. And, Monday morning lows will dip into the 50’s, as well.
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Monday high temperatures
I was thinking October would deliver more at or below normal temperature days than above normal temperature days. So far we are tied.
Here at the stats from Paducah, Kentucky. Let me walk you through this graphic
The blue area represents at or below normal temperature days. The red indicates above normal temperature days.
Number on the side represent the date. DY = Day MAX = high temperature MIN = low temperature AVR = average DEP = departure from norms.
As you can see, we are almost 50/50 thus far. Long way to go, but we will add some more above normal temperature days next week. Let’s see how it plays out!
Our dry conditions are going to continue into next week. Unfortunately, we are stuck in this pattern and there have been no signs of a shift. I was thinking we might see a shift around the 10th-15th. Now, that appears unlikely.
A weak cold front will pass through the region on Monday and Monday night. Some increase of clouds may occur along the front. Some models are painting sprinkles or light showers, but for now I am going to keep it dry. Temperatures should be a little cooler on Tuesday vs Monday.
Here are a few maps from the GFS model.
This is the Monday map. See those small dots of green? Those are showers along a cold front. But, again…I am going to keep it dry. Maybe an increase in clouds.
Tuesday through Friday…the GFS keeps our region dry. Surprise surprise.
The GFS is actually pushing an area of high pressure into our region next Friday. Earlier runs were showing a cold front with some showers and thunderstorms. For now, I will keep most of next week dry. I will monitor trends. Dry dry dry.
If that high pressure does push into our region then it would deliver cooler air.
I am still watching for a cold snap towards the third week of the month. But, as far as rainfall…slim pickins. Not the best news.
The models are starting to show hints of that cold snap I have been talking about. This would be the third week of the month. Long way off…confidence is low, of course. But, let’s watch the trends.
I am concerned about how dry September and October have been for some of our counties. I am a big believer in repeating patterns. This is called the long range cycle. Normally it sets up in October and November. At this pace the signals are concerning for below normal precipitation this winter. I will continue to monitor trends.
No major forecast changes in this update. Several nice days ahead of us.
No major concerns in the weather department over the coming days.
No.
The wild card in this forecast will be cloud cover on Monday. Another weak system will pass through the region on Monday. Appears mostly dry, but we may see an increase in clouds.
Currently no frost in the local forecast. I am watching October 18th through the 28th for a cold snap. Maybe frost?
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Not expecting measurable rainfall Saturday through Monday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
