Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 9 and 10, 2017: Chilly.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 9, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and cold.  Breezy.  Wind chills in twenties. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 25 to 30    IL ~ 25 to 30      KY ~ 26 to 32
Wind chill values: You can expect teens to lower twenties.
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: North 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 10, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Breezy.  Cold for November.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 46    IL ~ 42 to 46      KY ~ 42 to 46
Wind chill values: Morning wind chills will range from 15 to 24
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North/northeast at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and cold.  Fog possible.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 24 to 30    IL ~ 24 to 30      KY ~ 26 to 32
Wind chill values: Mainly in the 20’s.
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: East and northeast 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 11, 2017
Veterans Day
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Some increase in clouds from northwest to southeast late in the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 52 to 56      KY ~ 55 to 58
Wind chill values:  N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South/southeast at 5 to 10 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain should develop overnight (mostly late).  Light rain totals.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: South winds 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Some showers after 2 am mainly over the northern portion of the region.  Rain will be moving south/southeast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No.

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November 12, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered rain showers.  The most rain coverage will be before 12 p.m.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55    IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds becoming southwest.  Winds will become west and northwest behind the cold front.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy early.  Showers ending.  Clearing late with fog possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 40    IL ~ 36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: North and northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways early.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: A few remaining showers.  Rain ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars

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November 13, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 52 to 56      KY ~ 53 to 56
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 40    IL ~ 36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: North 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Thursday night through Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Thursday night through next Wednesday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

My updates this week will be a bit shorter.  We have had a death in the family.  It appears the funeral may not be until late in the week.  I will be with family on and off throughout the week.  So, be patient with the updates.  I will, as always, do my best.

The main weather story over the next 24 hours will be cold temperatures.  Lows on Friday morning will range from the 22 to 25 degree range near Mt Vernon to 24 to 28 degrees around Marion, Illinois and then 26 to 32 degrees near the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.

Well below normal.

Wind chills on Friday morning will range from 15 to 25 degrees.

Highs on Friday will remain in the 40’s.

A cold front arrives Saturday night with a band of showers. It appears the rain band won’t arrive until after midnight.

Rain showers are possible Sunday morning.  Rain showers will be ending during the afternoon hours.

Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM3K guidance.  The time-stamp is located at the top left side of the image.

Click image for larger view.

No snow or ice in the forecast.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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