We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
.
.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
..
November 7, 2016
Monday Night: Increasing clouds, overnight. A few light showers possible over southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Best chance of that would be over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m. First Quarter.
.
November 8, 2016
Election Day ~ VOTE
Tuesday: Quite a few clouds. A few scattered showers possible. Rainfall totals are expected to be light. 0.00″ to 0.15″. Not much. Not enough.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. It appears thunderstorms are not in the cards.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range. Temperatures will be lower because of clouds.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and eventually becoming northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars A few showers possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3 Clouds will keep the UV index lower.
Moonrise will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy during the evening with a few remaining light showers. Decreasing cloudiness overnight. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if showers develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps a few scattered evening showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. There could be a few showers dotting radar.
.
.
November 9, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler than recent days. Near normal to below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures, this time of the year, are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 6-7
Moonrise will be at 1:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy frost and fog possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible in this forecast.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North to east at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 10, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Thursday Night: A few passing clouds, otherwise clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None. Small risk for light frost.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 11 2016
Veterans Day
Friday: Partly sunny. Cool. A weak cold front will approach from the north. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 7-14 mph. Winds might be gusty at times. Gusts to 14-18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None. I will monitor the frost potential for Friday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 12, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Colder. Frost possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 13, 2016
Sunday: Partly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Sunday Night: Some clouds.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 14, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
.
Monday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds. Otherwise clear sky conditions. Milder.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Election day
- A few showers possible
- Colder later this week?
- Long range
A weak weather system will pass through our region later tonight into Tuesday afternoon. There will be an increase in clouds over the region later tonight. A few spotty light showers are possible after midnight. Chances for measurable precipitation, at any given point, will be around 20%-30%. A few showers are possible on Tuesday, as well.
Let’s take a look at the high resolution WRF guidance. This model graphic is showing you what radar might look like as the system passes through the area. Spotty showers. The colors represent precipitation.
6 PM Monday evening. You can see a few radars over our western counties. Light.
12 AM Tuesday morning future-cast radar
6 AM Tuesday morning future-cast radar
12 PM Tuesday afternoon future-cast radar
6 PM Tuesday evening future-cast radar
Here is what the GEM model is forecasting for rainfall totals. 0.00″ to 0.15″ Not much.
Click images for larger views
Here is the GFS model guidance. Another model.
Here is what the NAM model is showing for rainfall totals
Finally, here is the WRF model. Rainfall totals. Some slight variations in all the models. The overall theme, however, is for rainfall totals to be low.
The system will depart the area on Tuesday night. Any showers remaining will come to an end. A few clouds early Tuesday night and then perhaps some clearing after midnight.
Relatively calm weather is anticipated for Wednesday through Sunday. We will stair step down into some cooler air. Frost is possible on Wednesday night. There is some disagreement as to just how low temperatures will drop late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Here is the NAM model guidance. Plenty of 30’s over the region. Frost is a possibility.
Guidance is mixed on what happens Saturday and Sunday (as far as temperatures). Some of the guidance is showing the potential for a heavier frost on Saturday night. Other guidance is indicating temperatures won’t drop below the upper 30’s. I will continue to monitor trends. Either way, we should remain precipitation free.
Strong high pressure builds into the area on Saturday. You can see the 1031 mb high on this map. That is a decent high. This should bring colder air into the region.
Here is the GFS temperature forecast for Sunday morning. Some of the guidance has mostly upper 30’s. Let’s continue to monitor trends.
Let’s take a quick look at temperature anomaly maps. These maps show you how much above or below normal temperatures will be over the coming days. Red and pink equal above normal temperatures. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.
Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 60-62 degrees
Normal low temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 40 degrees
Click images for a larger view
This is the temperature anomaly map for Tuesday.
Here is the map for Wednesday evening. Somewhat cooler.
This is the map for Thursday morning
Here is the map for Thursday afternoon
Here is the map for Friday
Here is the map for Saturday morning
Here is the map for Sunday
As you can see, we will bounce between above and below normal temperatures. Next week will likely deliver much of the same. A mix of both above and below normal temperatures.
How about the month to date anomalies. It has been a very warm month, thus far. Here are the numbers.
Drought conditions prevail over much of the area. Burn bans are in effect across much of Kentucky.
Long range
I continue to monitor the third and fourth week of November for colder air. Low confidence. Model guidance is coming into some agreement that we might break the large ridge that has dominated our forecast over the past two months. The ridge is one reason we have experienced so much warm air.
Let’s look at the upper level charts. The 500 mb charts (18,000′ aloft) are showing the large ridge over our region.
Here is the ridge
Notice how the upper level winds are coming out of the southwest and then over the top of our region and then diving back southeast. This is a ridge.
Now, let’s look at next week. This is for November 17th. This is a large trough. It would mean colder weather.
Let’s look at the 850 mb temperature anomalies. This first map is covered in red. Above normal temperatures.
Now, let’s look at next week. Look at all that blue. Below normal temperatures. Low confidence, but worth monitoring.
One thing of interest, the models have started to show winter storms in the long range. Models don’t do very well in the long range. It is, however, an indication of perhaps a larger pattern shift. Time will tell.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
Perhaps a few showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Light rainfall totals.
.
Tuesday morning low temperatures
.
.
Tuesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
.
.
.
.
.
..
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Monday night through next Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
No significant changes. I am monitoring rain chances for tonight and Tuesday. Also, some disagreement on temperatures this coming weekend. Some of the guidance is colder than other guidance. I am monitoring trends.
.
No major concerns
.
..
.
.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
..
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
