Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 7 and 8, 2017: Cool weather.

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November 7, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Scattered light showers possible.   Turning cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 38 to 42    KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds
: North and northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars.

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November 8, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Clearing from west to east.  Uncertain how fast we clear.  Cool temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54    IL ~ 48 o 54      KY ~ 50 to 54
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few evening clouds.  Becoming clear.  Frost and fog possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36    IL ~ 32 to 36      KY ~ 34 to 38
Winds
: North 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Possible fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 9, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 58    IL ~ 55 to 58      KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and cold.  Possible fog.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 26 to 34    IL ~ 26 to 34      KY ~ 28 to 34
Winds
: North 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps fog.  Low confidence.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 10, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Breezy.  Cold for November.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48    IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 45 to 50
Winds: Northeast at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and cold.  Fog possible.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 28 to 34    IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 28 to 34
Winds
: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 11, 2017
Veterans Day
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Increasing clouds from northwest to southeast late in the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 52 to 56      KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East and southeast at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated after 4 pm
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain should develop overnight.  Light rain totals.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45    IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 42 to 45
Winds
: South winds may shift out of the north late at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 50% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated early and then increasing coverage late
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Check radars and monitor updates.

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November 12, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered rain showers (mainly in the morning)
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60    IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways early in the morning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy early.  Showers ending.  Clearing late with fog possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 40    IL ~ 36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds
: North and northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered early (mainly eastern counties)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars

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November 13, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 53 to 56    IL ~ 53 to 56      KY ~ 53 to 56
Winds: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 40    IL ~ 36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds
: North 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Tuesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday/Saturday night:  I will monitor the risk for lightning.
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Tuesday night through next Wednesday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

My updates this week will be a bit shorter.  We have had a death in the family.  It appears the funeral may not be until late in the week.  I will be with family on and off throughout the week.  So, be patient with the updates.  I will, as always, do my best.

 

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.

I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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