Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 6 and 7, 2017: Unsettled and cooler.

 

 

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
Bonus short and long range videos are available for Weather Talk subscribers.  This is in addition to the other products that you receive on a daily basis.
.
Videos are normally posted on Monday through Friday.  I personally update videos during active weather.
.
A Weather Talk subscription ($3 a month) is required to view the videos.  This helps cover monthly costs (which can run between one and two thousand dollars).

Videos are posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Once there, click the Beau Video-Cast tab.    Long Range Video Update

If you believe you missed a video then you may check the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website.  You will find an archive of videos on that page.

You can also receive the videos via your Weather Talk app/text messages.  Turn text option FOUR to the on position.  The Weather Extra text option.  Sign up for the app/text messages, videos, and more at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Your $3 a month helps cover the following monthly costs.  These are my out of pocket expenses.

This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

.
.

November 6, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Cool.  Showers likely.  Thunderstorms possible.  Hail may occur in thunderstorms.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 45 to 50    IL ~ 45 to 50      KY ~ 46 to 52
Winds
: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? Some reports of hail are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 80% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  Have a plan B

.

November 7, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of morning showers.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps have a plan B in the morning

.

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Widely scattered light showers possible.  Many may remain dry.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 38 to 42    KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds
: North and northeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars.

.

November 8, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Clearing from west to east.  Uncertain how fast we clear.  The clearing line will be slow to move through the region.  Cool temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54    IL ~ 48 o 54      KY ~ 50 to 54
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few evening clouds.  Becoming clear.  Frost.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35    IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 34 to 38
Winds
: North 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Possible dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

.

November 9, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 58    IL ~ 55 to 58      KY ~ 55 to 58
Winds: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and cold.  Possible fog.  Frost and freeze.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 28 to 34    IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 30 to 35
Winds
: North 0 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy dense for possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

.

November 10, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54    IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and cold.  Fog possible.  Some clouds may move in after 3 am.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 34    IL ~ 30 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 36
Winds
: North 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

.

November 11, 2017
Veterans Day
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Increasing clouds from northwest to southeast.  A late afternoon shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60    IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Variable at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways late in the afternoon.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered late in the day (esp northern counties in the region)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain likely.  Light rain totals.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 44    IL ~ 40 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 44
Winds
: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 50% 
Coverage of precipitation
: A band of showers.  Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Check radars and monitor updates.

.

November 12, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Clouds early.  A slight chance of a morning shower.  Becoming partly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60    IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Variable at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways early in the morning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated early in the morning.  Rain should have ended for most of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 40    IL ~ 36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds
: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

 

.

2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Monday and Monday night:  Lightning is possible.  Hail is possible.

Tuesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday:  I will monitor the risk for lightning.
.

Sunday night through Friday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

.

beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

My update this week might be a bit shorter.  We have had a death in the family.  It appears the funeral may not be until late in the week.  I will be with family on and off throughout the week.  So, be patient with the updates.  I will, as always, do my best.

November 6, 2017

Weather update.

The local forecast has been updated.  Scroll further down for the day to day forecast details.  It will be a cooler week.  Temperatures in the 30’s are likely on Wednesday morning.  Freezing temperatures are possible on Thursday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and tonight.  It will be cooler today with highs in the 50’s.

Widespread rain is likely tonight.  SHail is possible with the stronger storms.   Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″ are possible.  Locally higher totals are possible (esp in thunderstorms)..

As always, rain totals will vary considerably from one location to the next.

Here is the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance.  Click image to enlarge.

Are you subscribing to Weather Talk app/text messages and videos?  This is what helps support all of the data you see each day.

We now offer premium videos for the short and long-range forecasts!  These videos are produced by a team of long-range forecast experts.  They are brought to you as bonus information.  Activate text option four in order to receive these on your app or via text.

Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

We offer an Apple and Android app (scroll to the bottom of this page for more information).

Were you aware that I hired a team of meteorologists for long range videos?

To learn more, click this link

http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/

.

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.

Live lightning data ~ click here

.

12345r
.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The app provides a faster way for you to receive my text messages.  ATT and Verizon are not always reliable when it comes to speed.

Some of you have asked if you can receive the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to open your app and click the settings button.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

——————————————————–

Your support helps with the following:

and

.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

awaremail

Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.

I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *