Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 4 and 5, 2017: Stormy weather.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 4, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Mild for November.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 62 to 66    IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 66
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways and lightning.  Small chance.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated to scattered.  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 5, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  Dry most of the day.  Very warm temperatures for November.  Breezy.  Thunderstorms may develop over our northern counties of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois after 3 pm.  The southern half of the region may stay rain-free through the afternoon.  Some disagreement on what times storms will form.  It could be late in the day.  Some storms could be severe.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78    IL ~ 74 to 78      KY ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest wind at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Late afternoon wet roads.  Lightning.  Large hail and damaging winds possible.  Isolated tornado risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expectedYes.  Severe storms are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% after 2 pm   IL ~ 60% after 2 pm    KY ~ 50% after 4 pm
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered during the afternoon.  Perhaps numerous late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Afternoon and evening plans could be an issue.  Monitor radars.

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A period of showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be severe.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 60 to 64    IL ~ 60 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Strong winds near storms.  Hail and isolated tornadoes.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Yes.  Some severe storms are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to numerous.  A line of storms likely to move across the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates.  Yes, have a plan B.

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November 6, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Cooler north.  Warmer south.  Front in the region.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 66    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Small lightning risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 50 to 55    IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55
Winds
: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  Monitor updates

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November 7, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 45    IL ~ 40 to 45     KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds
: North and northeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered.  Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates

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November 8, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: North at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clearing possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 34 to 38    IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 34 to 38
Winds
: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Saturday night:  A couple of storms are possible tonight.  Many areas will not receive any precipitation.  Lightning is the main concern.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I can’t rule out hail with the thunderstorms (if any form)

Sunday through Monday:  Thunderstorms are likely on Sunday afternoon and night.  Some of the storms could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

This graphic will likely need adjusting.  This is the Storm Prediction Centers official outlook.  Again, changes are likely.

Orange is the greatest risk zone.  Yellow is a step below that.


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Saturday night through next Thursday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

Short update today

My main concern is the threat for severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night.  I would encourage everyone to monitor updates, watches, and warnings.

The greatest risk may extend across northern portions of southeast Missouri and then southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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