Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 4, 2016: Somewhat cooler weather, but still above normal temps.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..

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November 3, 2016
Thursday Night:  Evening clouds and then clearing.  Isolated shower before 8 pm.   Cool temperatures.  Perhaps some patchy fog.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways (small chance).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North and northwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Mostly likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 5:54 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 10:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:57 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.

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November 4, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures, but cooler than earlier in the week.
What impact is expected?  None (perhaps some morning patchy fog).

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  North and northeast winds 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:53 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9

Moonrise
will be at 11:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Friday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.  Cooler temperatures.  Small chance for light frost.
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the  38 to 44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable winds at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 5, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No 
Sunrise
will be at 7:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:52 p.m.
UV Index:  6-8

Moonrise
will be at 12:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 7, 2016
Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures continue.  Mild for November.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7
Moonrise
will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night:
 Mostly clear.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 43-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 8, 2016
Monday:  Partly sunny.  Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 70-75  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m.  First Quarter.
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Monday Night:
  Mostly clear to perhaps a few clouds.  Not as cool as recent nights.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 9, 2016
Tuesday:  Partly cloudy.   Isolated showers?
What impact is expected?  Monitor updates

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m.  Waxing Gibbous 
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Tuesday Night:
  Partly cloudy.  A few showers possible.
What impact is expected

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 10, 2016
Wednesday:  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  Low confidence. 
What impact is expected?

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 70-75  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable at 5-10 mph 
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous 
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Wednesday Night:
  Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low confidence.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50-55  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Dry conditions
  2. Somewhat cooler
  3. Above normal temperatures to continue

We need rain.  That is an understatement.  Many counties already have burn bans in effect.  I am not tracking any significant rain events.

Kentucky is under a statewide emergency because of wildfires.

Details – click here

More record highs and record high minimums.

November 1st

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and November 2nd

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Some of the guidance is showing at least a few showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Let’s continue to monitor that time frame.

The GFS model actually lingers rain into Thursday and Friday.  It pops an area of low pressure on Friday over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.  Something to monitor.  Low confidence.

Here is what the GFS is showing for Tuesday.  Green represents rain showers.

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Wednesday and Thursday

gfsthursdayrainstill

Friday

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The GEM/Canadian model guidance is showing rain in our region during the same time frame.  Might the models be sniffing out a system?  It is possible.  Let’s hope.  We need the rain.

Here are the 48 hour rainfall totals from the GEM model guidance.

This would include Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

thursdayraintotals

This next image covers Thursday into Friday night.  Rainfall totals.

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Obviously, if we don’t receive rain then our drought conditions will worsen over the coming weeks.  I continue to monitor the middle/end of November for a pattern shift.  At this point, it is too far out for there to be any real confidence.  A lot of charts are leaning towards colder weather as we push towards the middle/end of November.  I did note that the guidance has backed off the degree of cooler weather.

The latest date for 32 degrees or below, at the Paducah, KY NWS office, would be November 13th.   We may beat that record.

I am still waiting on the NCDC temperature stats for October.  I was thinking it would be the warmest October since the 1880’s for portions of the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys.  I will post the information once it arrives.  Either way, it was certainly warm.

Nice weekend ahead of us.  Temperatures will remain above normal.  Normal highs for this time of the year are in the 60 to 65 degree range.  We should remain precipitation free through at least Tuesday.

Enjoy the nice weather.

Check out the sixteen day GFS numbers.  This graphic shows you whether temperatures will be above or below normal.   The numbers on the left show you how many degrees above or below normal.  The days/dates are at the bottom of the graphic.  See all that orange?  Those are above normal temperatures.

These numbers are guidance.  It won’t be exact.

Click the image for a larger view.

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Here is the ten day precipitation outlook.  Well below normal precipitation anticipated.

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Let me show you some more maps.  These are temperature anomaly maps.  Red equals above normal.  The deeper red, brown, and white inside the red equals WELL above normal temperatures.

Most of North America will have above normal temperatures through the third week of November.

These are the five day running temperature anomalies.  This first map is through November 8th.  Above normal temperatures.

Click images for larger views.

5day

This next map is for the following five days.  November 8th through the 13th

10day

This last map is for the following five days.  November 13th to November 18th

15day

 

How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast

No rain in our forecast through Tuesday.

 

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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures

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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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 satnewhighs
Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night through Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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.No major changes in this update.
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No major concerns

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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