Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 30 and December 1, 2017: A nice weekend ahead of us.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 30, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear overnight.  Any remaining evening clouds will depart.  Colder.  Patchy fog developing.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 28 to 34     IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 28 to 34
Wind chill values: 28 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph early in the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 1, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56     IL ~ 52 to 55      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North and northeast becoming east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear early in the night.  A few passing clouds late.  Chilly.  A slight chance of a sprinkle or light rain.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 32 to 36    KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: Variable at 0 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none. Small chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 2, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Some morning clouds possible.  Becoming mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 58      KY ~ 55 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and southeast winds becoming south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 3, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East winds becoming more southerly at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph (higher winds over IL/MO vs KY/TN)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds overnight.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 43 to 46    IL ~ 43 to 46      KY ~ 43 to 46
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 4, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Breezy.  Some increase in clouds possible, especially late in the day.   Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southerly at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 26 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms developing.  Temperatures may hold steady or rise a bit in front of the cold front.  Timing of the front will be key to when the band of showers and storms moves through the region.   A few strong storms possible.  Gusty winds, as well. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~ 45 to 50      KY ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? A few storms could be strong.  The severe weather threat remains uncertain.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps widespread as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor updates.

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December 5, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Perhaps a thunderstorm early in the morning.  Breezy, at times.  Rain ending from west to east.  Turning cooler behind the cold front.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55 with falling temps possible     IL ~ 50 to 55 with falling temps possible      KY ~ 50 to 55 with falling temps possible
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (early)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day.  Ending from west to east as the day wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Morning plans may be interrupted by rain.

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Decreasing clouds overnight.  Turning colder.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 28 to 32     IL ~ 28 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 32
Wind chill values: 25 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.  Perhaps patchy fog.  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 6, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 44     IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill values: 34 to 38
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and colder.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 23 to 26     IL ~ 23 to 26       KY ~ 23 to 26
Wind chill values: 20 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none 
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 7, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 44     IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill values: 34 to 38
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds. A 30% of flurries or light snow.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 23 to 26     IL ~ 23 to 26       KY ~ 23 to 26
Wind chill values: 20 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds
: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?   
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation

Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

I am monitoring December 14th through the 16th for a storm system.

 

I am monitoring December 14th through the 16th for a storm system.

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Thursday through next Tuesday morning:  Accumulating snow or ice is not anticipated.

Next Tuesday night through next Sunday:  Winter precipitation can not be ruled out, but confidence is low.

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Thursday through Tuesday:  No severe weather.  Lightning is possible on Monday into Tuesday ahead of a cold front.  Lightning threat will end behind the front.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

The big weather story over the coming days will be sharply colder temperatures as we push into the middle/end of next week

Let’s break it down.

Tonight through Sunday night will be mostly dry and cool.

There is a weak disturbance that will move through the area on Friday night.  This will bring some clouds.  Most likely this disturbance will push through the region dry.  The NAM model shows a few light showers.  The atmosphere will be dry and rain would likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

Saturday and Sunday will be nice with highs in the middle 50’s to lower 60’s.  Not too bad for early December.  Those would be above normal temperatures.

Sunday will be the warmer of the two days.

A gusty cold front will move into the area on Monday and Tuesday.  A band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will accompany the front.

At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.  I will monitor trends.

The trends have been for a flatter system (a weaker system).

The EC guidance is the lone wolf in the model pack that is showing a deeper low and stronger cold front.

Rain showers will end on Tuesday or Tuesday night.  There is a small chance the rain will mix with sleet and snow.

The GFS shows the potential of the wintry mix at the end of the precipitation.

At this time, no accumulation is anticipated.  I will monitor trends.

GFS mode guidance for Tuesday afternoon.  Green would be rain.  Yellow and red would be heavier rain.  Blue is snow.
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Colder air arrives next Wednesday.  This cold air may last into the following week.

The GFS shows a clipper moving into the region on Wednesday night and Thursday.  This will need to be monitored.

You can see the clipper over western Iowa on this map.   It is moving southeast.
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This map is for Friday morning at 6 am.
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I am closely monitoring December 14th through the 16th.  A larger system is possible.

Check out the five day temperature averages anticipated for the first week of December.  Compare that to the second graphic for the middle of December.

Major pattern flip.

These are departure from normal maps
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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
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  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
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