Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 3 and 4, 2017: Warm!

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 3, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Isolated thunderstorm possible.  Fog possible.  Drizzle at times.  Temperatures may rise late at night.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 52 to 62  (cooler north vs south)   IL ~ 52 to 58 (cooler north vs south)     KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds
: Northeast and easterly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph.  Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  I will monitor the lightning risk
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but check radars.

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November 4, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild.  Most of the day will be dry.  A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78    IL ~ 72 to 76     KY ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southeast wind at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Small chance of wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A small chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Mild for November.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 62 to 66    IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 66
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways and lightning.  Small chance.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 5, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Very warm temperatures for November.  Breezy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Most of the day should be dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82    IL ~ 75 to 80      KY ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South and southwest wind at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some isolated wet roads and lightning.  I believe most areas will remain dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.  CAP may keep storms from forming.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A period of showers and thunderstorms (mostly late).  Monitor updates in case a few of the storms are intense.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 60 to 64    IL ~ 60 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.  I am monitoring the risk for strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Possible.  Low-end risk.  Monitor updates.  Low confidence on the severe threat.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50% 
Coverage of precipitation
: A line of storms possible late Sunday night.  The line would move in from the N/NW and move S/SE.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor updates.

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November 6, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.  Mostly cloudy.  Cooler north.  Warmer south.  Front in the region.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 68    IL ~ 58 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 70
Winds: South winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Small lightning risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 50 to 55    IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55
Winds
: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways. 
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  Monitor updates

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November 7, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66    IL ~ 62 to 66      KY ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 44 to 48    IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds
: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:

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November 8, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: North at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clearing possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds
: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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2014-11-24_13-38-04

The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Friday night through Saturday night:  A couple of storms are possible Friday night into Saturday.  Many areas will not receive any precipitation.  Lightning is the main concern.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday through Monday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  A few intense storms can’t be ruled out, especially Sunday night and early Monday morning.  Monitor updates.  The overall risk for severe weather is low.
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Friday night through next Thursday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

 

Friday night into Saturday night

A warm front will return north on Friday night.  Temperatures may actually rise through the night.  Patchy fog and light rain are possible north of the front.  Occasionally you can have thunderstorms north of the warm front, as well.

Overall, the rain chances for Friday night into Saturday night are likely to be capped at 30% or less.

Lows on Saturday morning will mostly be in the 50’s.  Cool, but still above normal.

It will be quite warm on Saturday with highs in the 70’s.  Well above our seasonal norms.

Saturday night low temperatures will likely remain in the lower 60’s.  Very warm for this time of the year.  Rain chances on Saturday night will be 20% or less.

Sunday into Tuesday

Temperatures will again rise well into the 70’s on Sunday.  Gusty southerly winds, as well.  Rain chances on Sunday will be less than 20%.  It will be humid with dew points well into the 60’s.  Spring-like weather.

A cold front will near the area on Sunday night.  There will be a strong CAP on our atmosphere.  A CAP is a warm layer of air aloft.  This could prevent widespread thunderstorms from forming.

If the CAP were to break then strong storms would occur.  The CAP may be strong enough to prevent widespread thunderstorms in our local area.  This is still a question.  Monitor updates.

Officially the Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Ohio Valley for severe thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night.  The confidence of severe weather is higher in central Illinois into Indiana vs our local area.

The risk for severe weather in my forecast counties is highly questionable and will depend on the strength of the CAP.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday night.  More shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible on Monday into Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday.  High temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday will likely be in the 60’s.

Several upper-level disturbances will pass through the region from Tuesday into Wednesday night.  Each will provide a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  Severe weather is unlikely Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Temperatures on Wednesday will likely be a bit cooler.  You can expect 54 to 58-degree readings.

I do not see a strong push of cold air in the charts.

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
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  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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