Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 3, 2016: Cooler weather, but still above normal temperatures

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..

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November 2, 2016

Wednesday Night: 
Partly to mostly cloudy.  Evening sprinkles or a light shower possible.  A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms (late at night).
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 5:55 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:12 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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November 3, 2016
Thursday: Mostly cloudy before 1 pm.   A chance for some morning scattered showers.  Thunder possible.  Cooler.  It is possible that once again some areas receive no measurable rainfall.  Some clearing possible after frontal passage (mostly during the afternoon hours).  Some lingering clouds and light showers can’t be ruled out during the afternoon over western Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north at 6-12 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Some showers are a good bet on Thursday.  Not an all day rain.  Scattered.
Sunrise
will be at 7:22 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:54 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3 (cloud cover should keep the UV index lower)

Moonrise
will be at 10:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:57 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Thursday Night:
  Clear.  Cool temperatures.  Perhaps some patchy fog.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North and northwest winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Mostly likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 4, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures, but cooler than earlier in the week.
What impact is expected?  None (perhaps some morning patchy fog).

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  North and northwest winds 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 7:21 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:53 p.m.
UV Index: 6-9

Moonrise
will be at 11:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Friday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the  39 to 44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 5, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No 
Sunrise
will be at 7:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:52 p.m.
UV Index:  6-8

Moonrise
will be at 12:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night: 
Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   North winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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November 6, 2016
Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Above normal temperatures continue.  Mild.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7
Moonrise
will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night:
 Mostly clear.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 43-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 7, 2016
Monday:  Partly sunny.  Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m.  First Quarter.
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Monday Night:
  Mostly clear to perhaps a few clouds.  Not as cool as recent nights.
What impact is expected
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 8, 2016
Tuesday:  Partly cloudy.  
What impact is expected?  

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 68-74  degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
Sunrise
will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index:  5-7

Moonrise
will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m.  Waxing Gibbous 
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Tuesday Night:
  Partly cloudy.  
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:   South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1. Rain chances (some areas will again miss out)
  2. Cooler weather
  3. Above normal temperatures to continue

Our 80 degree weather is coming to an end.  Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Thursday into the weekend.  Temperatures are still expected to be mostly above normal.  Over the past few weeks we have been experiencing temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.  Expect those numbers to drop into the 5-10 degree above normal range over the coming days.  Solid cold weather is still not in the forecast.

We had a few more clouds today than anticipated (Wednesday).  There were even a few spotty showers.

A cold front will push into the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  This front will be accompanied by a broken band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms.  Many areas will remain dry.

The rain will approach our northwest counties (northern portions of southeast Missouri and northwest portions of southwest Illinois) after midnight tonight.  The front will push through the entire region by Thursday afternoon.

Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.30″.  Many areas may remain mostly dry.  Our drought conditions will continue.  Burn bans are in effect for many counties.

Some clearing is possible on Thursday afternoon as the front pushes eastward.

Dry conditions are anticipated for Friday through next Tuesday.  Temperatures will remain above normal.  High temperatures will mostly be in the middle 60’s to middle 70’s.  Low temperatures will finally dip back down into the 40’s.  Frost or freeze conditions are not anticipated through next Tuesday.

Temperatures may remain above normal through most of next week.  Again, no solid cold snap in the charts, yet.  I continue to monitor the middle/end of November for the pattern to change.  Long way off and little to no confidence on the outcome.  Too far out for certainty.

Some data indicates a possible cut off low towards the middle/end of next week.  That could spell cooler weather.  I will keep an eye on it.

Here is the latest 16 day temperature anomaly chart from the GFS.  Areas shaded in orange represent above normal temperatures.  The trend is warmer.

The number on the left is how many degrees above normal.  Date is at the bottom of the graphic.

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Let’s take a look at few models.  I wanted to show you anticipated rainfall totals for the cold front late tonight into Thursday.  As you can see, some areas pick up little or no measurable rainfall.

NAM model

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GFS model

gfsnewmodel

GEM model

gemmodelguidance

WRF model

wrfmodel

How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?

WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast

No rain in our forecast through Wednesday afternoon.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the Thursday rain event.

Click image to enlarge

wpc_total_precip_ky_13

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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday 
afternoon 4 pm temperatures

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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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 frihighs1
Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night through Monday:  Lightning possible late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  No severe weather anticipated through next Monday.
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.No major changes in this update.
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No major concerns, at this time.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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