Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 29 and 30, 2017: Much colder air on the way.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 29, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming cloudy.  Cool.  Widely scattered late night showers.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 45 to 48     IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 45 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways are possible late
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered (mostly late)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  No

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November 30, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain showers possible.  Cloudy AM.  Clearing PM.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 55 to 60
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered.  A band of light rain possible in the region.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear overnight.  Any remaining evening clouds will depart.  Colder.  Patchy fog developing.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 36  Locally colder spots are possible.
Wind chill values: 28 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 1, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56     IL ~ 52 to 55      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North and northeast becoming east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear early in the night.  A few passing clouds late.  Chilly.  An isolated rain shower possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 28 to 34
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 2, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 58      KY ~ 55 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and southeast winds becoming south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 3, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East winds becoming more southerly at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph (higher winds over IL/MO vs KY/TN)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 43 to 46    IL ~ 43 to 46      KY ~ 43 to 46
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 4, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Some increase in clouds possible, especially late in the day.   Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Southerly at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms developing.  Temperatures may hold steady or rise a bit in front of the cold front.  Timing of the front will be key to when the band of showers and storms moves through the region.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 45 to 48     IL ~ 45 to 48      KY ~ 45 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? A few storms could be strong.  The severe weather threat remains uncertain.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor updates.

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December 5, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Perhaps a thunderstorm.  Breezy, at times.  Rain ending from west to east.  Turning cooler behind the cold front.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.  Winds becoming west and northwest behind the cold front.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Decreasing clouds.  Any remaining showers will have ended.  Turning colder.  Patchy fog possible if winds die down.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: 25 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Unlikely
Winds
: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.  Perhaps patchy fog.  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Ending
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates.

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December 6, 2017
Wednesay F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 25 to 30     IL ~ 25 to 30       KY ~ 25 to 30
Wind chill values: 22 to 26
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps patchy fog.  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

 

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Wednesday through next Tuesday morning:  Accumulating snow or ice is not anticipated.

Next Tuesday night through next Sunday:  Winter precipitation can not be ruled out, but confidence is low.

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Thursday through Monday:  No severe weather.

Tuesday and possibly Wednesday of next week:  I am monitoring thunderstorm chances.  Low confidence this far out.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

I spent a lot of time on the subscriber page discussing the upcoming cold weather.

We have multiple chances for snow over the next few weeks.  Much colder air will arrive towards the middle of next week.

It is too early to know if one of the snow chances will actually materialize.  Remember, potential does not always equal reality.

I detailed short, medium, and long range winter weather outlook has been posted on the subscriber site.  You can view that by visiting this link

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings.  The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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