Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 29, 2016: Thunderstorms ending. Mild Tuesday.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab).  Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts.  Your support is crucial.

The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will also find the password there.  The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.

The winter storm outlook has been updated.  The next update will be next Wednesday

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November 28, 2016
Monday Night:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Mild. Widespread showers and thunderstorms early.  Showers and thunderstorms diminishing as the night wears on.  
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor the evening hours for strong/severe thunderstorms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  South and southwest at 10-25 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 70%.  IL ~ 80%.  KY ~ 90% .  TN ~ 90%  (precipitation diminishing overnight)
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps widespread early.  Rain tapering late Monday night.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m.  Waning crescent. 

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November 29, 2016
Tuesday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Breezy.  Tuesday should remain dry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.  

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 50’s where clouds are thickest and in the 64-68  degree range where the sun wins out.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  South and southwest at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation?
   Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index:  1-3

Moonrise
will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m.  New Moon.
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Tuesday Night:  Partly cloudy.  Perhaps a few scattered late night showers.  That would mainly be over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.   The further west and north you travel the less likely precipitation will be.
What impact is expected
?  Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:  Southwest at 5-10 mph.   Winds may become more westerly after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered.  Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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November 30, 2016
Wednesday:  Partly sunny.  Perhaps a shower over our extreme southeastern counties (towards Hopkinsville). 
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways over our southeast counties

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 54-58  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West at 8-16 mph.  Perhaps gusty, at times.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Perhaps a few showers over our southeast counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky)
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  1-3

Moonrise
will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night:  Becoming clear.  Chilly.
What impact is expected
Most likely none.  Will monitor for patchy fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30 to 34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 1, 2016
Thursday:  Mostly sunny and cooler.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 8:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:42 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Night:  Mostly clear and chilly.  
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 2, 2016
Friday:  Mostly sunny and cool.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 9:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:34 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Friday Night:  A few clouds.  Cold.  
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1. Showers and storms will come to an end on Monday night
  2. Warm on Tuesday (well above normal temperatures)
  3. System on Wednesday might clip part of our eastern and southeastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky/western Tennessee).
  4. Weekend system?

Shorter than normal update because of on-going thunderstorms.

The region picked up quite a bit of rain on Sunday night and Monday.  Widespread 1″+ amounts.  Rain will continue into the evening hours.  Rain will end from west to east during the overnight hours.

Gusty winds tonight into Tuesday.

Tuesday will be warm.  Temperatures will be anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above normal.  Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 50 degrees.  We should push into the 60’s on Tuesday!  It will feel more like spring than late autumn.

I am watching a system that will pass to our east/southeast on Wednesday.  There is a small chance that some of the showers might reach as far northwest as the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky (see rainfall maps below).  Most likely our region will remain dry.  Perhaps some clouds.

If the system shifts slightly further northwest then more of western Kentucky and western Tennessee would be in the rain/shower zone.

Dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and Friday.  A bit cooler, as well.

The next chance for precipitation should hold off until later in the weekend.  Guidance is all over the place with that storm system.  Monitor updates, as we  move forward.

WINTER STORM UPDATE:  

I have updated the winter storm outlook.  The second of the season.  The winter storm outlook will be posted twice a week.

You can view the forecast by following these instructions.  Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall.  It is $3 a month.  A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more.  This helps offset the costs.

The next winter storm update will be posted on Wednesday, November 30th.

To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com

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Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Once our Monday event ends the chances for rain diminish.  A system will brush our region on Wednesday.  Perhaps some more rain for western Tennessee into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  It may stay east of my forecast counties (east and southeast)

This first image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.  Notice how most of the rain is to our east.

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Here are two models.  The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.

GFS model rainfall totals for the Wednesday event.  Notice how far east and southeast the precipitation will be.  Perhaps missing our area.

Click image to enlarge

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GEM model rainfall totals for the Wednesday event

Click image to enlarge

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One more, for good measure.  The NAM model guidance
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Temperature Outlook

Tuesday morning low temperatures

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Tuesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Wednesday 
morning low temperatures

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Wednesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night (early):  Some thunderstorms are possible. I can’t rule out some thunderstorms with gusty winds.  The severe weather risk is not zero.  Monitor updates, as always.  A few reports of damaging winds are possible.  Isolated tornado risk, as well.

The risk will continue to slide further and further east/southeast through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No significant adjustments.

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Monday evening thunderstorms could be intense.  The storms should be ending from west to east late Monday afternoon and evening.

No major concerns for Tuesday or Wednesday.  Perhaps some fog at night.


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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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