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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday night – Cloudy with rain likely. Cold rain. Rain may become a bit more scattered over our northern and northwest counties.
Temperatures: Lows in 40s. Upper 30 possible over parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Colder northwest vs southeast in our region.
Winds: North winds behind the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and possible some flooding issues in isolated spots.
Sunday – Cloudy. Showers possible. Perhaps. more scattered over our northern and northwest counties vs south and southeast counties.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Colder northwest counties vs southeast.
Winds: North winds behind the cold front. Winds of 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps be thinking about a plan B. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Some area could have high stream and creek levels.
Sunday night – A cold rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows in upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday – Cloudy. Rain showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs may reach into the lower 50s ahead of a cold front. Perhaps remaining in the 40s over our far northwest counties.
Winds: East winds ahead of our new storm system. Winds then becoming south and southwest mid-day. Then becoming west towards evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated/scattered early
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Monday night – Cloudy. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Showers possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some additional showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Tuesday – Cloudy and cool. A chance for morning showers (before 3 am). We might see some clearing during the day.
Temperatures: Highs mostly in the upper 40s
Winds: West/southwest at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (before 3 am)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered before 3 am
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible before 3 am.
Tuesday night – Clearing sky conditions.
Temperatures: Low temperatures in 34 to 38 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Fall like.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 40s
Winds: West/northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
Winds: Northwest winds at 0 to 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Near normal temperatures for late fall.
Temperatures: Highs in the 52 to 56 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Clear and cool
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny and cool
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: East winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Clear and chilly
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Just a few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain showers continue into Sunday/Monday.
2. Additional rainfall totals on Saturday night into Monday should be fairly light.
3. Colder temperatures Sunday into the second week of December.
Rain, rain, and rain! Well, we knew it was going to rain. So, there weren’t any surprises from this system. Let’s be thankful it was rain. This is the kind of system that can produce serious ice storm conditions.
Temperatures on Saturday were much colder for some of our counties. A strong cold front pushed into southern Illinois and southeast Missouri on Friday night and Saturday morning. The front has been slow to push eastward. However, it is slowly but surely moving.
Colder temperatures will blanket the area on Sunday. Expect widespread 40s. A far cry from the 60s we experienced on Thanksgiving and Friday!
Here are the departure maps for Sunday. How much above or below normal will temperatures be? I am showing you this so you can have an idea on how this front is causing temperatures to fall.
Normal high temperatures are around 52 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 32 degrees.
If you look over Kansas and Oklahoma you can see that temperatures will be anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees below normal. Not quite as dramatic in our region. But, you can see where the front is situated.
Let’s look at the temperature maps. Can you find the front?
Here is the Saturday evening temperature map. Notice the warmer air ahead of the cold front. Especially notable over Kentucky and Tennessee.
This next map is for 6 am on Sunday morning. Most of us should have dropped into the 40s by this time.
We will have to deal with additional showers through at least Monday morning. There will be a notable decrease in shower coverage and intensity as we push through Sunday into Monday morning. Expect mainly light rain on Sunday night. There are some questions as to how much shower coverage there will or won’t be on Monday.
It appears that Monday into Monday night will bring scattered showers, but not much in the way of additional rainfall accumulation.
I am not tracking any snow or ice storms.
Expect the week ahead to mostly be dry and cool/cold.
Radar
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Click image below for watch or warning information
No snow anticipated.
No frozen precipitation through next Thursday.
No major changes to the forecast.
Small risk for flooding. Believe the heaviest rain should be over by Saturday night (late) and Sunday morning. Lighter rain Sunday into Monday.
Umbrellas! Avoid flooded roadways.
The wild card in this update will be when does the rain come to an end on Monday. Right now it appears light rain possible on Monday into Monday evening. Believe rain will be tapering during the afternoon and evening hours. We will see how it goes.
Frost possible Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings. Will have to monitor for freeze conditions.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Additional rainfall totals on Saturday night into Monday should be less than 0.50″
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE for Saturday night and ZERO for Sunday-Thursday. Small chance for a rumble of thunder.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
