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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook has been updated. The next update will be next Wednesday
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November 27, 2016
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Showers developing. Increasing areal coverage overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning. Gusty winds late tonight.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range. Temperatures might actually rise towards morning.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 7-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 100%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Strong and gusty winds. Rain likely. Thunderstorms possible. A few storms could become severe.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. I will be monitoring for a few storms to produce high winds. The main area of concern will be from Poplar Bluff, Missouri and then across western Kentucky. From there southward. Monitor updates. Lightning possible. Gusty winds possible. Some moderate to heavy downpours possible. Isolated tornado risk, as well.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast at 12-24 mph. Gusts above 40 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 100%. IL ~ 100%. KY ~ 100% . TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: o
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Breezy. Mild. Showers and thunderstorms diminishing as the night wears on.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Monitor the evening hours for strong/severe thunderstorms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 10-25 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 90% . TN ~ 90% (precipitation diminishing overnight)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread early. Rain tapering late Monday night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Well above normal temperatures. Small chance for a remaining shower.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if anything at all). Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-66 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Some showers possible over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways in the above mentioned area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph. Winds may become more westerly after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Will monitor the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a few showers over our southeast counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways over our southeast counties
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps a few showers over our southeast counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky)
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30 to 34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Rain chances are on the rise! Much needed rain, I might add.
- Windy conditions on Monday and Monday night
- Well above normal temperatures on Tuesday
Clouds today kept temperatures down a bit. Some areas did not reach the middle 50’s. As a matter of fact, some areas barely reached 50 degrees. Can’t seem to win the last few days with the clouds departing and the temperatures.
Rain!
Rain chances are going to increase tonight into Monday night. Locally heavy downpours are also possible. It appears everyone with receive some measurable rainfall from this event. Many areas will exceed one inch. We need this rain. This will be our third rain event over the past two weeks. We are denting the drought.
Showers will move into southeast Missouri this evening (Sunday) and then move east/northeast across the rest of the area overnight.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
The heaviest rain will probably be late Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Some moderate to heavy downpours will be possible. A band of thunderstorms may form from southern Missouri into Arkansas. This will need to be monitored.
Gusty winds will accompany this system. Winds in the 10-25 mph range will be common on Monday into Monday evening. Some gusts above 35 mph are likely
Here is what the NAM guidance is showing for wind gusts.
The NAM already has gusty winds by 6 am on Monday. This seems a bit overdone, but some gusts of 10-20 mph are possible in the morning.
For tomorrow afternoon the NAM shows even higher wind gusts.
Severe weather concerns?
Wind fields aloft will be strong. There is not a lot of instability. If we had more instability then a severe weather outbreak would be possible. As it stands, it appears there might be enough instability for some strong to severe thunderstorms across far southeast Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Strong and gusty winds would be the primary concern.
If a line of thunderstorms develops then we will need to monitor for embedded vortices. This is typical for the fall and winter months. These are called QLCS tornadoes. They are short lives, but can cause damage. Again, instability is lacking, but wind shear is high.
The overall severe weather threat appears, minimal. As always, monitor updates on Monday in case the forecast were to change.
Monday night and Tuesday:
Rain showers will taper off as we move into late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warm with well above normal temperatures. At this time, it appears Tuesday should be dry.
Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are in the lower 50’s.
Here is the temperature anomaly map for Tuesday at 12 pm. WELL above normal. The numbers represent how many degrees above normal.
Another system will brush our eastern and southern counties on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This would primarily concern the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. I will monitor the track of the area of low pressure. It should pass well to our south and east. If the track were to shift further northwest then rain chances would increase across a larger portion of the area. At this time, that appears unlikely.
Let’s take a look at the NAM future-cast radar for our rain event
This first image is for 12 am on Monday. You can see the showers spreading into our region on Sunday night/Monday morning.
This next image is for 7 am on Monday. Monitor Arkansas for some heavier showers and storms. These will move northeast and east.
This next image is for 12 pm on Monday.
This next image is for 1 pm on Monday. You can see some heavier activity over southeast Missouri. That will move eastward.
This next image is for 2 pm on Monday.
This next image is for 3 pm on Monday. This is what the NAM model is forecasting the radar to look like.
This next image is for 4 pm on Monday. The heavier line is spreading eastward.
This next image is for 6 pm on Monday. That line of showers and storms from Kentucky into Tennessee and then into Mississippi will need to be monitored. That is the line that could produce some severe thunderstorms. More likely to our south, but close enough that it warrants our attention.
This next image is for 9 on monday. You can see the activity pushing eastward. Rain should end on Monday night.
A few showers will be possible Tuesday night/Wednesday across the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Here are the rainfall probabilities
WINTER STORM UPDATE:
I have updated the winter storm outlook. The second of the season. The winter storm outlook will be posted twice a week.
You can view the forecast by following these instructions. Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall. It is $3 a month. A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more. This helps offset the costs.
To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com
Find me on Twitter, as well!
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain chances increase late Sunday night into Monday night/Tuesday. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. At this time, flash flooding appears unlikely. Monitor updates, as always.
Scale is on the right side of the image. I zoomed in on our region. This is the official NOAA outlook.
Click images to enlarge.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS model rainfall totals for the Sunday night through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
GEM model rainfall totals for the Sunday night through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
One more, for good measure. The NAM model guidance
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Temperature Outlook
Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday into Monday night: Some thunderstorms are possible. I can’t rule out some thunderstorms with gusty winds. The severe weather risk is not zero. Monitor updates, as always. A few reports of damaging winds are possible. Isolated tornado risk, as well. If a tornado were to occur it would embedded in the rain. That means you won’t see it.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley for strong to severe storms on Monday and Monday night.
The dark green and yellow areas are under a marginal and slight risk for severe weather. Let’s keep an eye on it.
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No significant adjustments.
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Fog during the overnight hours into the morning hours. Remember, when temperatures fall below freezing with fog present, patchy slick spots can occur on roadways..
Some thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Monday night. I will be monitoring a potential squall line that should develop to our south. It could clip our area. Monitor updates, as always.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
