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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Friday night – Cloudy with widespread rain likely. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in 40s behind the cold front and remaining in the 50s ahead of the cold front. Front should be near the Ohio River by Saturday morning. Slow mover. (upper 30s possible over northern parts of southeast Missouri)
Winds: West/southwest winds at 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds ahead of the front will be southerly and behind the front mostly west/northwest winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain expected. Most areas will experience rain.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and possible some flooding issues in isolated spots.
Saturday – Cloudy. Colder for much of the region. Widespread rain likely.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will vary over the region. Colder behind the front. That could mean parts of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee remain in the 50s during the morning hours. Temperatures falling into the 40s over western Kentucky by late morning into the early afternoon hours. Again, temps will vary GREATLY with the front over our region.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 6-12 mph ahead of the front and north/northwest behind the front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and possible some flooding issues in isolated spots.
Saturday night – Cloudy with rain likely. Cold rain. Rain may become a bit more scattered over our northern and northwest counties.
Temperatures: Lows in 40s. Upper 30 possible over parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Colder northwest vs southeast in our region.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph Behind the cold front winds will shift out of the northwest/north.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and possible some flooding issues in isolated spots.
Sunday – Cloudy. Some showers still possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Colder northwest counties vs southeast.
Winds: North winds behind the cold front. Winds of 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Some area could have high stream and creek levels.
Sunday night – A cold rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows in upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Showers possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday – Cloudy. Rain possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 40s. Steady temperatures. Lower confidence on temperature on Monday. We could end up mostly in the 40s.
Winds: East winds ahead of our new storm system. Winds then becoming south and southwest mid-day. Then becoming west towards evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated/scattered early
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Monday night – Cloudy. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s early and then rising after midnight towards 50 degrees over far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky (new storm system approaches from the west will pull slightly milder temperatures northward briefly).
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Showers possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some additional showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Tuesday – Cloudy. Showers before 3 am are possible. Perhaps becoming partly cloudy late morning/afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s early and then temperatures may fall in the afternoon.
Winds: West/southwest at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (before 3 am)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered before 3 am
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible before 3 am
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Widespread rain Friday night into Sunday
2. Rainfall total of 1.5″ to 3.5″
3. Small flood risk.
4. Much colder behind the front on Saturday and Sunday (wide temperature range over the region)
Our rain event is now underway. Took a little longer for some counties to find themselves parked under the rain. Our eastern counties are still not fully entrenched in the precipitation. But, that will happen soon enough.
Now that the rain has arrived, it will stick around awhile. Expect decent chances of rain into at least Sunday. Rain chances may actually linger into Monday. But, the bulk of the rain should fall Friday night into Saturday night.
It is possible that our northern and northwestern counties will see precipitation slack off a bit by Saturday night and Sunday morning. Perhaps shifting more south and southeast during that time frame.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1.5-3.5″ are expected.
Flood threat continues to appear small, but not zero. Mainly areas that typically experience issues during prolonged rain events. This is not a flash flood type setup. The lack of thunderstorms will help us quite a bit. If we had widespread thunderstorms then flash flooding would have been on the table.
Avoid flooded roadways, as always. Some overland flooding may occur in spots. That typically means low land fields. Again, typical areas that always have problems.
We should dry out area-wide by Monday night.
Cooler/colder air will stick around through the first week of December. Some data indicates temperatures may try to rise above normal by the 8th or 9th. Still some time to see how temperatures trend. Expect a cool week ahead of us.
I am on Thanksgiving break. I will do a deeper analysis when I get back into gear on Sunday afternoon and night. I currently don’t see snow or ice in our forecast. I will keep watching.
Radar
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Click image below for watch or warning information
No snow anticipated.
No frozen precipitation through next Thursday.
No major changes to the forecast. Updated Monday’s rain chances.
Small risk for flooding. Widespread 1.5 to 3.5″ of rain will fall with this system.
Umbrellas! Avoid flooded roadways.
The wild card will be temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. How far south and east will the cold front dip.
No frost in the forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A widespread 1.5-3.5″ rainfall event for the region. This will be spread out over a three day period.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE for Friday night into Saturday. Small chance for a rumble of thunder.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
