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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mix of sun and clouds
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 58 to 64 degrees. Mild.
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Increasingly cloudy sky conditions.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thanksgiving – Cloudy. A small chance for showers, especially late in the day. Better chances over our far western counties of southeast Missouri
Temperatures: Highs ranging from 60 to 66 degrees. Very mild for Thanksgiving.
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% for a shower over southeast Missouri. Believe mostly dry for the day over the region, just a few showers possible. Again, mainly western counties in the region.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? No real impacts. If a shower forms then obviously some wet roadways.
Thursday night – Cloudy with rain developing as the night wears on. Better chances the later into the night you go.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 50 to 56 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread as we move through the overnight hours into Friday morning
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain appears likely.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Friday – Cloudy. Rain likely.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Better monitor updates. Rain appears likely.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Friday night – Cloudy with rain likely
Temperatures: Lows in 40s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Rain is likely in the region.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Saturday – Cloudy. Maybe some rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: West at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and if heavy rain develops we may need to monitor for flood issues.
Saturday night – Cloudy with rain likely
Temperatures: Lows in 40s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Rain is likely in the region.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. We will need to monitor for flooding (if heavy rain does develop)
Sunday – Cloudy. Rain possible. We need to monitor Saturday and Sunday for heavy rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: West at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps be thinking about a plan B. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and possible flooding issues.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Nice for Wednesday and Thursday
2. Rain moves into the region late Thursday and may last awhile
3. The potential for heavy rain Friday night into Sunday. Flooding issues?
Hello, everyone! I am on the train bound for home. Holidays!
The main weather concern will center on two storm systems taking shape to our west and southwest. The first one will spread rain into the region on Thursday night and Friday. This system will stall over our local area on Friday night – Sunday.
Here is the GFS model guidance. It shows the rain moving into our region on Friday morning. Perhaps late Thursday night (especially the western half of the region)
These images are from weatherbell.com
This first image is for Thursday evening around 6 pm. Maybe a few light showers in our region.
This next image is for Friday morning at 6 am. Plenty of showers in the region at that point. Spreading eastward slowly but surely.
This next image is for Friday evening around 6 pm. Rain continues. Note the closed lines to our south and west. That is the area of low pressure. The lines are equal lines of pressure. Isobars are what meteorologists call those. Big slug of moisture over our region on Friday into Friday afternoon.
Moving ahead to Sunday morning at 6 am. You can see that rain continues in our region. This is a bit of a question mark. How long does the rain last. Obviously we don’t need THIS much rain. If it rains Friday into Sunday then some significant rainfall totals are possible. I suspect a flash flood or flood watch will be issued for parts of the region.
Models are showing significant rainfall totals. If the models are correct then flash flood watches would have to be issued for the region.
It is still a bit early to throw around big numbers. I am expecting a widespread 1-3″ rain event for the area. And, if some of the guidance is correct we could have much higher totals.
This rain event will be spread out over several days. However, we just had a large rain event a week or so ago. That rain event on top of this rain event is concerning.
Some rivers are already out of their banks. If this coming rain event verifies, as some models suggest, then there will be flooding in some locations.
As always, I will be watching it carefully.
Since I am on the train I can’t post as many graphics. I will do that later tonight or tomorrow.
Monitor updates if you have plans Thursday night through Sunday.
The good news is that I am not anticipating severe weather. As always I will monitor trends. Heavy rain appears to be the main concern.
Rain chances increase on Thursday night and especially on Friday. Might need an umbrella and jacket if you are going to stand outside of stores!
For the time being, I do not see any snow or ice in our forecast. Note that I have brought back the snow forecast to the blog. They will be updated a couple of times each day.
No snow anticipated.
No frozen precipitation through Sunday.
I updated the temperature part of the forecast and rain probabilities.
The possibility of heavy rain later this weekend. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Not on Wednesday or Thursday. Monitor the Friday through Sunday part of the forecast. Heavy rain potential is increasing.
The wild card in the forecast, for the upcoming week, will be the timing of the rains arrival on Thursday.
No frost in the current forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain in the forecast through Wednesday.
The next system arrives Thursday-Saturday. Could be a decent rain event. Monitor updates.
I will try and post some maps later tonight.
I am forecasting a widespread 1-3″ rain event for Thursday night into Sunday. Possibility for much higher totals.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Sunday through Wednesday.
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder Thursday night?
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder?
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
