Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 24 and 25, 2017: More quiet weather!

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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Three Day Forecast
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November 24, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A period of clouds.  Not as cold.  Gusty winds possible.  A chance of a sprinkle.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 46 to 48     IL ~ 46 to 48     KY ~ 46 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 25, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Some passing clouds.  Milder. Becoming sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62    IL ~ 56 to 62     KY ~ 56 to 62
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Early morning winds may be out of the southwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Winds will become north and northwest behind the cold front at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear and chilly.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36     IL ~ 32 to 36     KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: 30 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North and northwest 5 to 10 mph diminishing to 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 26, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 60     IL ~ 56 to 58     KY ~ 56 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Becoming southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cool.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 34 to 36     IL ~ 34 to 36     KY ~ 34 to 36
Wind chill values: 32 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North wind 4 to 8 mph becoming south and southwest
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 27, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clear.  Not as cold.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 28, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Breezy.  Mild
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear early.  Perhaps a few clouds late.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 40 to 45     IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 29, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 60      KY ~ 56 to 60
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Showers possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 42 to 46     IL ~ 42 to 46      KY ~ 42 to 46
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: West winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways are possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates

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November 30, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 60      KY ~ 56 to 60
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Showers ending.  Clouds clearing.  Cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds
: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways are possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Ending
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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Friday through Sunday:  Accumulating snow or ice is not anticipated.

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Friday through next Wednesday:  No severe weather.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:
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Wow, talk about quiet weather.  This was a great holiday for the weatherman.  The last few years have delivered active weather.  I am amazed at just how quiet it is.  Day after day of quiet weather.  I am not complaining!

Here are the temperature departures for the Month of November, thus far.

A bit of a roller-coaster.

Temperatures over the coming days will moderate.  The GFS guidance might be a little too warm, but not too far off.

Sixties may return to the area by early next week.

Saturday highs

Saturday night lows

Models are too warm (so no graphic here)

Sunday highs

GFS may be 3 to 6 degrees too warm.  I went mid to upper 50’s for Sunday’s highs.

This graphic below is the GFS.

Sunday night lows

GFS may be a couple degrees too warm.

Monday highs

Monday night lows

Some of us do need rain.  In particular southeast Missouri.  Drought conditions are occurring in Missouri.

Here is the latest drought monitor map.  As you can see Missouri is struggling in the rainfall department.

There are some signals for wetter conditions developing in December.

Looking ahead.

Dry weather is expected to continue into at least Tuesday.

We will have a couple of cold fronts push through the region.  At this time, it appears unlikely that they would produce precipitation.

Farmers will be able to finish up their harvest.  That is the good news.

I am monitoring a potential weather system on Wednesday into Thursday.  This system would produce rain.  It will be too warm for snow or ice.

Here is the GFS depiction of that system.  It has the low passing over our region.  Rain showers would be the end result.

Dew points won’t be high enough for severe weather.  Rainfall totals would likely be light (less than 0.40″).

Model guidance is struggling with a developing pattern at the end of November into the first two weeks of December.

The GFS guidance is showing a number of storm systems pushing through our region with rain (some heavy).  The GFS guidance has not been consistent and I don’t trust it.  Not saying it is wrong, but I would like to monitor trends.

The EC guidance does show some signals for southwest flow developing as we push into the end of November and especially the first part of December.

A southwest flow would likely mean active weather with several precipitation events.

 

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
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