Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 2 and 3, 2017: Warm with some storms.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 2, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility.  Some storms could be intense.  Mild for November.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 52 to 62  (cooler north vs south)  IL ~ 52 to 64 (cooler north vs south)     KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.  Winds becoming north and northwest behind the cold front.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.  Hail and gusty winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? Strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible.  Confidence in actual severe weather is low.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but check radars and updates.

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November 3, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Cooler temperatures near Mt. Vernon vs areas further south.  A shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 64    IL ~ 54 to 62      KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable winds 7 to 14 mph.  Winds north of the front will be from the north and northwest.  Winds south of the front will remain southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Small risk for lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Fog possible.  Drizzle at times.  Temperatures may rise late at night.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 52 to 62  (cooler north vs south)   IL ~ 52 to 58 (cooler north vs south)     KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds
: Northeast and easterly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph.  Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways.  I will monitor the lightning risk
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
? No, but check radars.

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November 4, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild.  Most of the day will be dry.  A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78    IL ~ 72 to 76     KY ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southeast wind at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Small chance of wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A small chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Mild for November.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 62 to 66    IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 66
Winds
: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Wet roadways and lightning.  Small chance.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 5, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Very warm temperatures for November.  Breezy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Most of the day should be dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82    IL ~ 75 to 80      KY ~ 76 to 82
Winds: Southerly wind at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some isolated wet roads and lightning.  I believe most areas will remain dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.  CAP may keep storms from forming.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Mild.  A period of showers and thunderstorms (mostly late).  A few strong storms possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 60 to 64    IL ~ 60 to 64     KY ~ 60 to 64
Winds
: Southerly winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds near storms.  I am monitoring the risk for strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Possible.  Low-end risk.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60% 
Coverage of precipitation
: A line of storms possible late Sunday night.  The line would move in from the N/NW and move S/SE.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor updates.

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November 6, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.  Mostly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68    IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Small lightning risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 50 to 55    IL ~ 50 to 55      KY ~ 50 to 55
Winds
: Variable 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways. 
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:  Monitor updates

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November 7, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66    IL ~ 62 to 66      KY ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 44 to 48    IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds
: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
:

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November 8, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Winds: North at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clearing possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44
Winds
: North 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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Friday at the bus stop

A wide range of temperatures on Friday morning.A cold front will be positioned near KY/TN border.  Cooler north of the front and warmer south of the front.

Friday afternoon

 

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Thursday night through Saturday night:  Some strong storms are possible Thursday night.  Gusty winds and hail can’t be ruled out.  The overall risk for severe weather is low, but not zero.

Sunday through Monday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  A few intense storms can’t be ruled out, especially Sunday night and early Monday morning.  Monitor updates.

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Thursday night through next Thursday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

Unsettled weather and unseasonably warm weather into Sunday night.

Thursday night:

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are a good bet tonight.  A few strong storms can’t be ruled out.  Severe weather appears unlikely, but one or two storms could produce hail and gusty winds.  Lightning is a concern, of course.

Here is the Hrrr future-cast radar for Thursday night.

Some question on the coverage.  There might be more than this (coverage wise).

Click to enlarge

Rainfall totals tonight will likely vary.  Thunderstorms can always produce much higher totals.  Generally, here are the rainfall totals anticipated.

NAM guidance continues to show the potential for a thin band of heavier totals somewhere in southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Heavier meaning greater than one inch.  Confidence on the placement of the heavier band is low.

Temperatures tonight will be well above normal.  Normal lows are around 40 to 45 degrees.  We won’t be anywhere near that tonight.  Lows will likely remain in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Here are the temperature anomalies for 7 am and 7 pm tonight.  Again, WELL above normal.

7 pm tonight

How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be?

7 am Friday

Friday and Friday night

Somewhat cooler air will arrive on Friday.  I say cooler, it will still be warmer than normal.

A cold front will pass through the area by Friday morning.  The front will then become stationary and meander near or south of our region.

You can expect highs in the 60’s for Friday.  The one caveat would be if the front stalls near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  If that happens then temperatures will range from 68 to 72 degrees near the front.  Northern counties of southeast Missouri and northern counties in southern Illinois may remain in the 60 to 65 degree range.  That would include areas such as Farmington, Missouri and Mt Vernon, Illinois (a county or two south of there, as well.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the area on Friday.  Clouds may linger, as well.  It does appear the rain coverage will be less on Friday vs tonight (Thursday night).   Rain chances on Friday will be around 40%.  That means there will likely be some showers on radar.

Friday night lows will mainly be in the 50’s, but may actually rise after midnight.  This will occur as a warm front lifts back northward through the region.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible near and ahead of the warm front Friday night.

Saturday and Saturday night

Clouds will linger into Saturday and Saturday.  Perhaps a mix of sun and clouds on Saturday.  Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will also be possible.  At this time, widespread rain appears unlikely on Saturday.  I would not cancel any plans.

Rain chances for Saturday and Saturday night will range from 20% to 30%.

Temperatures will rise well into the 70’s on Saturday.  WELL above the seasonal norms.  If we had more sun on Saturday then an 80 degree reading would be possible.  Either way, it will feel like spring.

Lows Saturday night will remain in the 60’s.  Quite warm for November.

Saturday high temperatures

Check out the temperature anomalies for Saturday at 1 pm and 1 am Sunday morning.  WELL above normal.

This chart shows you how many degrees above normal temperatures will be.

1 am Sunday

Sunday into Monday

A complex weather forecast is developing for Sunday evening and night.

A cold front will be located to our northwest on Sunday evening.  The front will slowly push south and east through the night and into Monday.

The atmosphere will be capped on Sunday.  A cap is basically a lid on the atmosphere that prevents thunderstorms from forming.

What is a CAP?

How strong the CAP is will be key to our thunderstorm chances.

CAPE and lift index values indicate the potential for strong to possibly severe storms from Indiana back into our region.  The highest risk may remain to our north and east.  Low confidence on that part of the forecast.

CAPE is a measure of instability.  We do have some CAPE on Sunday, but how much is questionable.

Here is the 6 pm Sunday CAPE and the 12 am Sunday CAPE.  Notice it decreases with time.  This will help decrease the thunderstorm intensity.

If the cap does break then thunderstorms will develop.  Some storms could be intense.  A low end risk for a severe thunderstorm.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may remain with us into the middle of next week.

Severe weather risk for Sunday night.  Confidence is low.

 

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
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  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

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