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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
November 17, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A wind advisory for strong winds. Cloudy. Breezy. Steady or rising temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially after 12 a.m.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35+ mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather appears unlikely. Perhaps some stronger storms on Saturday morning.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 12 a.m. Becoming scattered to perhaps numerous after 3 a.m.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 18, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Strong winds likely. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms likely (esp before 2 p.m.) A few wet snowflakes may mix in behind the cold front (southern Illinois). No accumulation. A line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the cold front. The main line will develop early Saturday morning. Rain will end from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. If you have morning/early afternoon plans, then have a plan B and monitor updates. High temperatures will occur early in the day. Falling temperatures behind the cold front. Wind chills will drop below freezing during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: Highs will occur ahead of the cold front MO ~ 62 to 65 (falling temps) IL ~ 60 to 65 (falling temps) KY ~ 60 to 65 (falling temps)
Wind chill values: 20’s and 30’s by the afternoon.
Snow or ice: A few wet snowflakes possible over southern Illinois. No accumulation.
Winds: Morning winds from the southwest at 15 to 40 mph and gusty. Winds becoming west/northwest during the late morning and afternoon at 15 to 45 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. A few intense thunderstorms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce damaging winds. Hail and tornado risk appears low.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 2 p.m. Tapering off from west to east through the day. Ending last over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing and colder. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds the first half of the night. Winds will subside some later in the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 19, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and much cooler. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 24 to 28 IL ~ 24 to 28 KY ~ 24 to 28
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Light west and northwest winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 20, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 21, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: West and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 22, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cooler. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 52
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 23, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: East 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday evening: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance of lightning during the day on Friday.
Friday night (late) and Saturday: Thunderstorms are more likely late Friday night into early afternoon Saturday. A few of the storms could produce strong winds. Monitor updates.
A few storms could produce wind damage on Saturday morning and early afternoon. A fast-moving line of storms will push from west to east across the region.
Weekly Severe Weather Outlook. Late Friday night into early afternoon Saturday is being monitored for a few severe thunderstorms. High wind is the main concern.
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Friday night through Tuesday night: Accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated. Some wet snowflakes are possible behind the cold front on Saturday afternoon. Accumulation will not occur.
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Weather Highlights:
An active 24 hours ahead of us.
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A strong cold front will sweep across the region on Saturday. This is the big weather story over the next six days.
You can see the cold front on this map.
Strong and gusty winds will develop Friday evening and continue into Saturday afternoon. Winds could top 40 mph from time to time.
These will be gradient winds. Gradient winds occur when barometric pressure rapidly rises and falls. This will occur on Saturday.
Winds behind the cold front might be just as strong as ahead of the front. Plan on high winds.
Here is the GFS model guidance wind gust map. NAM shows stronger winds.
Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge the animation.
A thin band of thunderstorms will develop early Saturday morning and sweep across the region. This line of storms will produce brief downpours and strong winds. I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings. The main concern will be damaging winds.
Here is the future-cast NAM radar. You can see the line of storms develop on Saturday morning. Timestamp upper left.
The blue color represents snow. I can’t completely rule out non-accumulation wet snowflakes over southern Illinois.
Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will rise into the 60’s. They will fall into the 40’s and 50’s behind the front.
Here is the NAM model guidance temperature forecast for 12 p.m., on Saturday.
3 p.m., temperature map for Saturday. Sharp temperature drop.
Dry weather is anticipated Sunday through at least Thursday (perhaps Friday).
I am monitoring another storm system for next weekend. Still a bit early for details.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history. This was in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
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