10 AM update
Saturday, November 18, 2017
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Note: The NWS says their Hopkinsville radar is down for repairs. They do not know when it will be up and running.
Radars
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
A windy day ahead of us with rapidly falling temperatures behind a strong cold front.
Wind gusts over the past few hours have ranged from 20 to 45 mph across the region. A few higher gusts, as well.
Temperatures are in the 60’s ahead of the front and 40’s behind the front.
A band of low topped convection/thunderstorms will develop this morning over southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.
The line will push across the entire area.
Not sure how much lightning there will be with this line. Occasionally November low topped convection doesn’t produce much lightning.
This thin line of storms will race east at speeds of 50 to 60+ mph.
Some of the storms could produce damaging winds. There is a low risk for isolated tornadoes. A few reports of nickel size hail will also be a possibility.
Future-cast radar.
A band of gusty storms will form over the next few hours. This band of storms will sweep eastward. Damaging wind possible with a few of the storms.
Future-cast radar
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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
November 16, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds overnight. It will be chilly with patchy fog. Winds may pick up late tonight.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds may increase late tonight with gusts above 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 17, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warmer. Gusty winds developing. An isolated shower possible. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 63 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. Steady or rising temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially after 12 a.m.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather appears unlikely. Perhaps some stronger storms on Saturday morning.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 12 a.m. Becoming scattered to perhaps numerous after 3 a.m.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 18, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Strong winds likely. Rapidly falling temperatures behind the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms likely (esp before 2 p.m.) A line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the cold front. The main line may develop east of the Mississippi River early Saturday morning. Rain will end from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. If you have morning/early afternoon plans, then have a plan B and monitor updates. High temperatures will occur early in the day. Falling temperatures behind the cold front. Wind chills will drop below freezing during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: Highs will occur ahead of the cold front MO ~ 62 to 65 (falling temps) IL ~ 60 to 65 (falling temps) KY ~ 60 to 65 (falling temps)
Wind chill values: 20’s and 30’s by the afternoon.
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Morning winds from the southwest at 15 to 40 mph and gusty. Winds becoming west/northwest during the late morning and afternoon at 15 to 35 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. A few intense thunderstorms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce damaging winds. Hail and tornado risk appears low.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 2 p.m. Tapering off from west to east through the day. Ending last over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing and colder. Breezy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 35 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North winds at 6 to 12 mph. Gusty winds the first half of the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 19, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and much cooler. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 24 to 28 IL ~ 24 to 28 KY ~ 24 to 28
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Light west and northwest winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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November 20, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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School Bus Stop Forecast
Morning
Afternoon
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night through Friday evening: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance of lightning during the day on Friday.
Friday night (late) and Saturday: Thunderstorms are more likely late Friday night into early afternoon Saturday. A few of the storms could produce strong winds. Monitor updates. A few storms could produce wind damage.
Weekly Severe Weather Outlook. Late Friday night into early afternoon Saturday is being monitored for a few severe thunderstorms. High wind is the main concern.
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Thursday night through Tuesday night: Accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
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Weather Highlights:
For a larger number of graphics and videos, please visit the Weather Talk website.
Link ~ Click here.
Tonight and Friday:
Calm weather is anticipated tonight into Friday morning. We may have patchy fog tonight into Friday morning.
Winds will increase on Friday afternoon and night. Gusts above 30 mph are likely, especially Friday night.
We will also have increasing clouds with small shower chances Friday afternoon and evening. The bulk of the rain chances will arrive late Friday night into Saturday.
Saturday and Sunday:
The big weather story is a strong cold front that will sweep through our region on Saturday morning and afternoon.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the cold front. The bulk of the activity will occur between 4 a.m. and 2 p.m., on Saturday.
Some of the storms could be intense with strong and gusty winds.
Here is the NAM future-cast radar.
The timestamp can be found in the upper left portion of the future-cast radar loop. Click image to enlarge.
This model ends at 12 p.m., on Saturday. The storms will continue to push east after that time.
Rain will end from west to east on Saturday late morning and afternoon. Gusty winds will continue into Saturday afternoon.
Next weeks forecast graphics and videos can be found on the subscriber page. Link ~ Click here.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
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In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history. This was in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
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