.
A Weather Talk subscription ($3 a month) is required to view the videos. This helps cover monthly costs (which can run between one and two thousand dollars).
Videos are posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Once there, click the Beau Video-Cast tab. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you may check the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. You will find an archive of videos on that page.
You can also receive the videos via your Weather Talk app/text messages. Turn text option FOUR to the on position. The Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the app/text messages, videos, and more at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your $3 a month helps cover the following monthly costs. These are my out of pocket expenses.
This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
November 15, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Dense fog likely in some areas. Clouds will be departing as we move into the overnight hours. Any evening showers will come to an end. Cool temperatures. If sky conditions clear out then fog will be possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 34 to 38
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways early. Most of the rain should have ended.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
November 16, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning fog will mix out. A few clouds, otherwise sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds overnight. It will be chilly with patchy fog. Winds may pick up late tonight.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 36 IL ~ 28 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds may increase late tonight with gusts above 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
November 17, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warmer. Gusty winds. An isolated shower possible. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 63 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. Rising temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially after 3 a.m.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather appears unlikely. Perhaps some stronger storms on Saturday morning.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 3 a.m. Becoming scattered to perhaps numerous after 3 a.m.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
November 18, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely (esp before 1 p.m.) A line of showers and storms is forecast to develop along the cold front. The main line may develop east of the Mississippi River. Rain will end from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. If you have morning/early afternoon plans, then have a plan B and monitor updates. Highs may occur early in the day. Falling temperatures behind the cold front.
Temperatures: Highs will occur ahead of the cold front MO ~ 62 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Morning winds from the southwest at 10 to 35 mph and gusty. Winds becoming west/northwest during the late morning and afternoon at 10 to 30 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. A few intense thunderstorms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce damaging winds. Hail and tornado risk appears low.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 2 p.m. Tapering off from west to east through the day. Ending last over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing and colder. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 35 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
November 19, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and much cooler. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 24 to 28 IL ~ 24 to 28 KY ~ 24 to 28
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: Light west and northwest winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
November 20, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and cool. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clear and cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
School Bus Stop Forecast
Morning
Afternoon
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday and Saturday: Small chance of lightning during the day on Friday.
Thunderstorms are more likley Friday night and Saturday morning. A few of the storms could produce strong winds. There is a low-end risk of severe weather. Monitor updates.
Weekly Severe Weather Outlook. Friday night/Saturday morning has been marked with a risk.
.
Wednesday night through Tuesday: Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
.
Weather Highlights:
Rain fell over much of the region Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals were mostly in the 0.15″ to 0.25″ range.
As of this writing, most of the rain had pushed off to the east and south. A few showers remained over our far eastern counties.
It will be chilly tonight (Wednesday night) with lows in the 30’s. Cool temperatures on Thursday, as well. Highs will mostly range from the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Fall weather.
Thursday into Friday morning will likely remain dry.
We will start to see increasing clouds late Thursday night into Friday. This will occur ahead of a warm front that will approach from the south.
A few showers may develop along and north of the warm front. The bulk of the region will likely remain dry through Friday afternoon. A few locations will pick up a fast-moving shower.
A cold front will move into the region Friday night and Saturday morning.
Southerly winds will increase as we push deeper into Friday and into the overnight hours. Winds may gust above 30 mph.
This front will produce a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Model guidance appears to be moving towards a solution as far as the timing of the front. If you will remember, over the past few days, this was still a question mark.
The cold front will move through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will likely linger into Saturday morning. The afternoon hours will likely see drier conditions.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday morning, then monitor radars and updates. You may have to deal with rain.
Rainfall totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ are anticipated with the frontal passage. Thunderstorms can always produce locally higher totals.
Here are my rainfall total probabilities for Friday night into Saturday.
.
A few of the thunderstorms could be strong late Friday night/Saturday morning. The main concern would be damaging winds. The overall severe weather risk appears low. Monitor updates, as always.
High temperatures may occur early on Saturday. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front.
Dry and cool conditions Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.
It will be much colder on Sunday with highs likely remaining in the 40’s.
See the daily forecast at the top of this post.
Are you subscribing to Weather Talk app/text messages and videos? This is what helps support all of the data you see each day.
We now offer premium videos for the short and long-range forecasts! These videos are produced by a team of long-range forecast experts. They are brought to you as bonus information. Activate text option four in order to receive these on your app or via text.
Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
We offer an Apple and Android app (scroll to the bottom of this page for more information).
Were you aware that I hired a team of meteorologists for long range videos?
To learn more, click this link
http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/
.
We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The app provides a faster way for you to receive my text messages. ATT and Verizon are not always reliable when it comes to speed.
Some of you have asked if you can receive the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to open your app and click the settings button. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
——————————————————–
Your support helps with the following:
and
.
Whom do you trust for your weather information?
I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history. This was in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. You need a trusted source for information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.
I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
