Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 14, and 15, 2017: Rain.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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November 14, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clouds thickening.  Shower chances will be on the increase (mainly late).  Thunderstorms are possible after 5 am.
Temperatures
:    If clouds don’t thicken then temps could be a bit lower.  MO ~ 40 to 45    IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southeast winds increasing to 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways possible late tonight and isolated lightning (mostly after 4 or 5 am over our northwest counties).
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated before 4 am.  Rain chances ramp over over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. 
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but check radars

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November 15, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A period of showers and thunderstorms will push across the region from the west/northwest towards south/southeast.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56    IL ~ 52 to 56     KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Check updates and radars

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Evening clouds.  Isolated showers.  I believe most of the rain will have ended.  Cool temperatures.  If we clear out then fog would be possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 36 to 40    IL ~ 36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 42
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
:  West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts before 9 pm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps wet roadways early.  Most of the rain should have ended.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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November 16, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A few clouds, otherwise sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.  I believe Thursday *during the day* will remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some increase in clouds.  We may have a few showers scattered around.  This will occur as warmer air starts to push northward.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 42 to 45      IL ~ 42 to 45      KY ~ 42 to 45
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: East and southeast at 5 to 10 with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor updates

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November 17, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warmer.  Gusty winds.  A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Most of the rain and storms should hold off until after 5 pm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68    IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southwest winds 15 to 30 mph.  Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Most likely storms during the day will remain below severe limits.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updates.

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The Friday night and Saturday forecast is based on the forecast that the cold front arrives on Friday afternoon and night.  The forecast will need adjusting if the front arrives later than anticipated.

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.   Temperatures will hold steady or perhaps rise ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph.  Winds becoming west and northwest late (if the front passes through the area).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.  Lightning.  Monitor for stronger storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? Some storms could be intense.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Tapering from west to east
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: I would monitor updates and radars

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November 18, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A chance of some remaining showers and thunderstorms.  This would mainly be before 10 a.m.   Monitor updates in case the cold front moves into the region faster or slower.  Lower confidence on the timing of frontal passage.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58    IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice:  No
Winds: Winds becoming north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning before 5 a.m.   This is highly dependent on the timing of the cold frontal passage.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected?  No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some remaining showers before 10 am
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates.  The timing of the cold front is still in question.

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35     KY ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill values: N/A
Snow or ice: No
Winds
: North winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is freezing rain, sleet, or snow expected? No
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

School Bus Stop Forecast for Tuesday

Morning

Afternoon

 

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Tuesday night through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday: I am monitoring a storm system that will bring thunderstorms into the region.  Some of the storms on Friday and Friday night could become intense.  Severe weather can’t be ruled out.  Damaging winds would be the primary risk.

Weekly Severe Weather Outlook.  Friday has been marked with a risk.

This would carry into early Saturday morning (before 8 AM)

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Tuesday night through Saturday:  Widespread/accumulating wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

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beausanalysis

Weather Highlights:

Tonight through Wednesday

I was a bit too high on my temperatures Monday night.  Some of you dipped into the 20’s!  Most areas were between 30 and 35 degrees.

Tuesday night

Rain showers will overspread the region later tonight and especially on Wednesday.  Most of the rain will arrive after 4 a.m.

The rain will arrive first over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  It will spread from the northwest to the southeast.

Here is the weather map for tonight into Wednesday.  A cold front will push into the region from the northwest.

A few thunderstorms are also possible.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM-3K model guidance. Time stamp is located in the upper left part of the image.

The heaviest rain will fall over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Probabilities favor 0.26″ to 0.50″ in those areas.  Locally heavier totals where thunderstorms occur.

Here is my rain totals probability forecast graphic

Western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee will likely receive 0.01″ to 0.20″.  Pockets of higher totals likely.

Here is my rainfall total probability forecast graphic

Here are the model guidance packages.  These are forecasted rainfall totals from each of model.

GFS

Canadian

NAM

NAM3K

Rain will come to an end as we move into late Wednesday afternoon.

Rain will end over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois earlier in the day.  Rain will end over western Kentucky and Tennessee last.

Temperatures tonight won’t be as cold as this morning.  This morning we had widespread 28 to 34 degree readings.  That was a few degrees colder than I had forecasted.  Wednesday morning will likely see lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.

Wednesday night into Thursday night

High confidence forecast

Dry conditions are likely Wednesday night.  Patchy fog will be possible if we clear out.  Temperatures on Wednesday night will be a bit colder.  You can expect middle to upper 30’s to be the general rule.

At this time, sun is anticipated on Thursday.  Temperatures will range from 54 to 58 degrees.  Near normal to slightly below the seasonal norms.

Thursday night will deliver increasing clouds.  A few scattered showers are possible.  Winds will turn out of the south as we push through the night.

Some warm advection showers might be the end result.  There is some question on Thursday night’s rain chances.  I have included at least chance wording.

Friday

Medium confidence on Friday’s forecast

Friday we will find ourselves in the warm sector of a developing storms system.

We should see temperatures warm into the 60’s as we move into the afternoon hours.

Check out the temperature forecast maps for Friday into Saturday.  You can certainly see the warm air moving northward ahead of the front and then the cooler air arriving behind the front.

6 a.m., Friday Temperatures

12 p.m.

6 p.m.

12 a.m., Saturday

6 a.m., Saturday

Check out the temperature anomaly map.  How many degrees above normal temperatures will be on Saturday at 12 a.m.

Let me show you the weather maps for Friday and Saturday.

I want you to keep in mind that there are differences in the model guidance packages.  There are about 12 hour differences on the timing of the front.  This is the GFS model guidance.  Some models are slower and some faster with front passage.  This will need to be ironed out over the coming days.

12 p.m., Friday weather map.  You can see the low starting to form over northwest Iowa.  The closed black lines.  Those black lines are isobars.  They are closely packed together and that means gusty winds.

We may experience a few showers as warmer air moves northward on Friday.  You can see the bulk of the rain is still well to our north.  That is snow in blue.  These are six hour precipitation totals.  Scale is on the right.  That would be rain or snow (well to our north) that falls between 6 a.m., on Friday and 12 p.m., on Friday.

6 p.m., on Friday.  You can see rain developing along the incoming cold front.  The low is over the Great Lakes and deepening.

6 a.m., Saturday weather map.  Rain in our region.  Thunderstorms, as well.  This is the six hour rainfall total forecast.  That means this rain would fall between 12 a.m., and 6 a.m.   Note the heavy snow well to our north on the backside of the area of low pressure (that is the cold sector).  We will be in the warm sector.

This is the 12 p.m., Saturday weather map.  Rain should be moving off to our east by Saturday morning.

6 p.m., on Saturday.  The precipitation has moved well off to our east.

I can’t rule out a few showers, but we may end up capped most of the day.  A cap is a warm layer of air aloft that keeps showers and thunderstorms from forming.

Gusty winds are likely to develop on Friday.  Winds will be out of the south.

Here is the Saturday 12.m., wind gust map.  Winds will likely remain gusty most of Friday into Saturday.

I will include at least a 30% of showers on Friday.  I would not cancel any plans, but I would monitor updates.

Temperatures on Friday night will hold steady or perhaps even rise.  This will occur on southerly winds that will be gusting over 30 mph.

The cold front will push into the area on Friday night and Saturday.  This front will trigger a band of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

There remain questions about dew points on Friday.  Dew points are a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  Typically for severe weather one would be looking for dew points in the upper 50’s and above.

We may struggle to see dew points make it above 60 degrees. 6 a.m., Friday dew point forecast map.

Notice the dew points rising well to our west.  That is ahead of the cold front.

Friday 12 p.m.

Friday 6 p.m.

Saturday 12 .m.

Saturday 6 a.m.

This will be key to instability and our severe weather chances along the cold front.

Wind fields will be strong on Friday night/Saturday morning.  That is one ingredient for severe weather.  We will have lift along the cold front.  That is another ingredient.  Lapse rates (how fast it cools off as you move higher into the atmosphere) will be favorable for strong thunderstorms.  The missing ingredient may end up being higher dew points.

CAPE (measure of energy) will remain low if dew points remain low.  This is an unknown.

This deserves monitoring as we move forward.  I would not be surprised to see a few strong gusty storms along the front.

Rainfall totals from this system will likely be in the 0.40″ to 0.80″.  Some of the guidance is painting greater than one inch amounts.  That certainly can’t be ruled out, but the general norm may be the lower numbers.

Thunderstorms can always produce locally higher rain totals.

Rain may linger into Saturday morning.  This will be highly dependent on the speed of the cold front.  Model guidance is anywhere from six to twelve hours different in the timing of the frontal passage.

Saturday afternoon into Sunday should be dry and a bit cooler.  Highs in the 54 to 58 degree range on Saturday (behind the front) and in the 40’s on Sunday.

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
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